Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Terry-Heller Thanks, thats very helpful. So in theory if I'm going unmatched on one third of my trades at the time of 1st goal, cant imagine they will all still only have 1 goal by 70 mins to get matched again, and all will have a 2nd between 70 and FT.
Was just an idea, i think FHG and O1.5 can definitely be done together, but maybe not at the prices I like, more research required I think.
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@Fraser-cord On the games I select for FHG my records have 34% with a goal before 15 minutes
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@Craig-vaulks Makes sense. I use a slight adaptation of Tomasz U1.5 lays for my O1.5 trades and don't trade above 3.0 lay odds. My theory, as many of these games are low scoring, there is rarely an early goal. Will often get odds below 3.0 at K/O but if not I try and match in play (usually matched close to 10 mins in.)
However with the FHG selections there tend to be more early goals so this may not work for O1.5, could miss a lot of winners. I'm starting to record goal times to help get a balance.
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@Fraser-cord yeah they are similar odds at kick off, slightly lower odds for over 1.5 goals but as you say having filters that find fhg's will obviously increase the chances over 1.5 goals landing. I just need to finish off adding a few more results to my spreadsheet then I will try testing both markets with slightly smaller stakes see how it works out.
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@Craig-vaulks I think that makes sense, If the data shows profit. I'm currently looking at a mix of 1st half strats and many appear to show that O1.5 hits regularly. The odd case where no FHG but O1.5 or FHG but not 1.5. But in general if you get odds of 1.5, just need to hit 2 out of 3.
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@Craig-vaulks hmm I'd go with both if using sensible stakes, they make profit so why not.
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What are people's thoughts on trading multiple markets with the same filter? Does anyone do it? As I am thinking of trading the over 1.5 goals market alongside my FHG market. Just looking for any ideas of best way to do it, like split staking between them or if its worth doing at all. Any ideas welcome.
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@Chris-King spoke to @Adam and they will be added when we drop the backtesting, so not imminent but defo in the future
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@fraser-cord Yeah my winnings are tested to 5% commission. I have changed my plan to the basic so any live trading is 2%. I tend to test to 5% commission to see if i can beat that rate, the theory being if i can then the strategy is just that bit more robust. It’s just a personal preference.
Nooo, i don’t use the sports book
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Just wondering, has anyone submitted any strategies to Martin for him to test? I've got one or two I've been testing, maybe I'll submit them for the ultimate scrutiny lol... fhg and over 1.5s or a variation of, seem to be popular, there must be more angles out there worth checking somewhere in the stats software there is a perfect combination of filters I just know it
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@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@martin One you might like to consider? FHG set and forget. I have a thread on the forum for this with more detail.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4270/fhg-set-forget/54
My spreadsheet
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10LNCl0xeGg_2hSulsX-7yik31Dule3SswUnEPryE18k/edit?usp=sharing
The filter
Thanks for sharing all including spread sheet @Chris-King . Just noticed your winings are £9.5 not 9.8, do you use the BF sportsbook much, if not might want to change plans?
I match bet so always had the 5% commission for Betfair so used smarkets/matchbook instead of betfair for trading, but now that im gubbed im back to the 2% using betfair more. -
@terry-heller said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@craig-vaulks I guess as the odds fluctuate during the day it depends on when you run the filter. Only the Hvidovre game came up for me when I ran it.
Yeh i ran it 1st thing today and there was no selections, yet right now its showing the ones posted plus Roma inter. Frustrating isnt it!!!!
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Yeah guess it depends when you check, one came up last night late on for 6am this morning daegu v hyundai. Unfortunately I left but it came in.
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@craig-vaulks I guess as the odds fluctuate during the day it depends on when you run the filter. Only the Hvidovre game came up for me when I ran it.
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3 games today on my FHG filter
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@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan I wouldn’t say that. What i mean is you should hopefully be able to find a consistent odds value or range in another market and use that in your selection process.
As an example, you want over 1.50 in FH O0.5G and by looking at other markets you notice that on all those selections the FT O1.5G market odds are always above 1.35 so you then set a minimum odds filter of 1.35 on FT O1.5G
Ah i see, cheers buddy
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@terry-heller Happy days
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@terry-heller said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@david-baker-0 Thanks for sharing. I just ran your filter and it shows 2 games today.
Udinese....Stats software has odds of 1.18 for O.5 goals at HT the betfair price is 1.4
Ath Bilbao stats software has odds of 1.54 and the BF price is 1.44Well thats 2/2 for you David and 1/1 for me .