2022 Tennis Trading Thread

[A Former User]

@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:

Anyone problems with the stats engine ?

Yeah, showing no upcoming matches on mine.

[A Former User]

Anyone problems with the stats engine ?

[A Former User]

ALERT: Fognini Vs Chardy today (13:30 according to Betfair). Hopefully the liquidity improves. Only £7401 matched on match odds so far.

[A Former User]

@damon-heslop Got wins on Barty and Vesnina

[A Former User]

@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:

Will back these ones if a break or set down.

Goerges
Barty
Vesnina

Let them serve once each. Enter when they are one break or set down. Take profit when they break up, or take stop loss when they go a second break down. Good luck.

Boom Vesnina!

[Ryan]

[A Former User]

Will back these ones if a break or set down.

Goerges
Barty
Vesnina

Let them serve once each. Enter when they are one break or set down. Take profit when they break up, or take stop loss when they go a second break down. Good luck.

[A Former User]

@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:

Will back these ones if a break or set down.

Giorgi
Goerges
Begu

Let them serve once each. Enter when they are one break or set down. Take profit when they break up, or take stop loss when they go a second break down. Good luck.

Giorgi: N/A
Goerges: Lost serve on 0-2 and never broke back. Went in with another 1% in start of second set where she broke back on 1-0. Went out with 0.44 loss.
Begu: N/A

[A Former User]

Will back these ones if a break or set down.

Giorgi
Goerges
Begu

Let them serve once each. Enter when they are one break or set down. Take profit when they break up, or take stop loss when they go a second break down. Good luck.

[A Former User]

@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:

Will back these ones if a break or set down.

Barty
Haddad
Vesnina
Errani

Let them serve once each. Enter when they are one break or set down. Take profit when they break up, or take stop loss when they go a second break down. Good luck.

Barty: N/A
Haddad Maia B.: WIN (Lost serve 2-3, broke back @ 3-3)
Wesnina: WIN (Lost serve on 0-2, broke back @ 1-2)
Errani S: N/A

2.34 pts green in total.

[A Former User]

Will back these ones if a break or set down.

Barty
Haddad
Vesnina
Errani

Let them serve once each. Enter when they are one break or set down. Take profit when they break up, or take stop loss when they go a second break down. Good luck.

[Ryan]

@frode-lia

This is excellent!! I think everybody who reads this will collect some cracking value from this post

Thank you

[Ryan]

Miami Open - 6pm

This is an interesting one for me, I have a couple of ticks value on Zverev here based on the stats alone, my knowledge of the players backs up the value on Zverev too. He leads the H2H here and I do not think Isner will be able to push him around the court too much, for me this is one I will watch closely over the first few games because Isner needs his serve, he needs to have his first serve firing!

If this serve isn’t firing then we have an excellent opportunity in my eyes for back Zverev.

[Adam]

Really glad they're working well. Wanted to leave them labelled as "experimental" until they'd been well tested. Sounds like they're going well!

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:

@frode-lia It was Adam's great work!

Can I be a pain I know exactly what you are doing to use it, but can you just put a few notes on how you used it on this trade for example? Just for the other traders watching your trades buddy

I will try.

A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.

• I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.

• I checked for injuries and so on.

• My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.

• I would first let the players serve once each.

• On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.

• Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.

• Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.

• Stephens won the match 2-1.

Rules for the strat is as follow:

Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.

The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.

I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum.

[Ryan]

@frode-lia It was Adam's great work!

Can I be a pain I know exactly what you are doing to use it, but can you just put a few notes on how you used it on this trade for example? Just for the other traders watching your trades buddy

[A Former User]

Will take the day of tennis. But will watch Stephens v Ostapenko. Wide open match.

[A Former User]

@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:

@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:

Looking to lay the opponents to these dogs from 1.05 to 1.1 in second set:

Isner

This trade is on the basis of the BTC Tennis Stats Projected Hold model. 62,79% on Del Potro with 1.5 odds v 63,38% on Isner with 2.5 odds. Del Potro have impressed me in this tournament, but so has Isner. My odds would be 1.9 v 2.1.

Again the BTC Projected Hold numbers got it right. Dont no how you guyes have coded it @administrators @Ryan-Carruthers But have worked incredible during the Miami tour.

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers Have looked like a million. But if Isner loose first set, he will have some fight in him @ 1.05-1.1 odds I think. Thats my game plan at least.

[Ryan]

@frode-lia I am amazed at Del Potro, he didn't look 100% fully fit for me but my lord he's been playing the tennis of his life!!