Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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On that note, nothing for tomorrow.
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Damp squib in Singapore. I tried to analayse it then realised I really shouldn't. So far got 63% s/r on the over 3.5 with average bookie odds of 1.99 which should be more than enough to profit were it to stay this way.
Also got 71% s/r on over 1.5 goals H2 with average bookie odds of 1.59 which is more likely to be around 1.65-1.7. Again this should be more than good enough if it can maintain.
Over 2.5 SHG is a bonus but 48% with average bookie odds of 2.7 isn't to be sniffed at.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
The red simply shows that away team have moved up a league since last year. As I'm basing my trade on home average goals more than anything this to me is not a negative but potentially a positive.
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From the recent H2 goals filter I posted that I'm working on:
I'm not blind to the fact I've tried this to death and mindful of that this isn't an entry on 60 mins as prev. I'm only going LTD on 69mins if either drawing @ HT (no prior H2 goals) or 0-1 @ HT and equaliser came before 60.
SO FAR, this would have been very profitable.
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One more potentially really good one for tomorrow:
Home or Lion City as they're called now, score for fun.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Quick reminder I'm laying under 3.5 goals in the above game. Got 1.44 so the market clearly not expecting goals. Let's see if they're wrong. Cheap lay regardless and 2 SHG would result in profit even if it's 0-0 @ HT.
2-2 with just under half an hour to go. Both trades won.
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Quick reminder I'm laying under 3.5 goals in the above game. Got 1.44 so the market clearly not expecting goals. Let's see if they're wrong. Cheap lay regardless and 2 SHG would result in profit even if it's 0-0 @ HT.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Another BOGOF for tomorrow:
Lay under 3.5 @ Kickoff and under 1.5 SHG @ HT.
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Another BOGOF for tomorrow:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I've removed the dog lays from my current sheet for now. If anyone wants it let me know.
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It's not terribly impressive at first glance but I'm looking at an entry point of 70th minute and for this so far I can easily get my 100 selections to 43 with an 83% s/r. If I were to go 60th minute I can currently get closer to 88-89% with 61 selections.
LTD on 69mins (70th minute) should be a nice manageable price even with a few failures on the bounce.
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Goals filter I'm working on:
2nd half goals I should say. And just the one. Today I made it to 100 selections. Already been thinking in my mind what will have to go and what will have to stay. For now I've just removed the lowest set of averages for home goals scored and also the highest averages for home goals scored. Doesn't seem to be just a flash in the pan. Both lowest and highest are performing poorly and have been from the word go.
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Back up to 100 selections on BOGOF. No improvement for the next lowest set of numbers so time to remove.
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I can't keep tracking ELO's while I know the results are so off kilter and I have no intention of doing them. What am I really showing myself other than that results are all over the place.
No, taking a complete break there for a while and I''ll look at it again when the players are back to normal schedules with fans back in the stadium at capacity. In short, it's going to be a while.
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First full loss in a while in Belgium but it's not an expensive one. Small green for the day.
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@chris-osborne said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer Teams in Europe are getting unexpected results all over the place and I actually have sympathy with Klopp on the scedule which is purely TV driven. Until full crowds are back and the schedule is back to some kind of normality then strange results will happen - as you said look at Real Madrid yesterday and Lazio today.
The injuries all teams playing in Europe are picking up is ridiculous and TV scedules should not be the main driver for when teams play. We're playing in Ukraine on Thursday yet don't play until tomorrow night thats just not right and we're not alone in that.
Yeah I know. It's mental. Only consistent is goals at the moment. Not where the goals are coming from haha!
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@richard-latimer Teams in Europe are getting unexpected results all over the place and I actually have sympathy with Klopp on the scedule which is purely TV driven. Until full crowds are back and the schedule is back to some kind of normality then strange results will happen - as you said look at Real Madrid yesterday and Lazio today.
The injuries all teams playing in Europe are picking up is ridiculous and TV scedules should not be the main driver for when teams play. We're playing in Ukraine on Thursday yet don't play until tomorrow night thats just not right and we're not alone in that.
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These are todays games where I'm expecting an abundance of goals:
Calling this strategy BOGOF.
For all of these I will be laying under 3.5@ Kickoff and laying the under 1.5 goals H2. I will also be laying under 2.5 SHG in Bodo/Glimt game.
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@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer don't think we should underestimate how much football is being played at the moment, teams really haven't had any time to prepare for the new season and the games are relentless. seems to have levelled the playing field somewhat, I mean the Premier League is wide open, La Liga looks anything but a two horse race this year and even the Serie A looks competitive!
Yeah I know. Have a feeling the ELO could come good again next year but it's a toss up at the moment.
