Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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The point of what you posted was that certain correlations have been found. Correlations between two co-variables. For example, between Nobel Prizes and chocolate production; which are likely caused by the third variable of level of development of the country in question. No need to refer to Chaos Theory.
In your case, to use the statistical analogy, you are trying to carry out a multiple regression rather than a simple correlation. You are trying to carry out multiple correlations without measuring the strength of any individual correlations. You are then trying to use those interactions in your trading within tiny time windows.
I'm not criticising your logic. I'm criticising the fact that it's too unnecessarily complex. I'm sure you have something profitable that is easy to execute. Just look for the simple correlations; they are present in your data.
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@stuart-capstick Only reason for any of that was in the video I posted which was illuminating.
It isn't not working. I just haven't had a trade for ages. There's nothing on.
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If that was the case in what you are doing, you could make that argument. But you don't have millions of lines of data and it doesn't look like it's working.
Besides which, looking at what you do, ultimately you are looking at particular prices with particular scorelines at particular times of the match. The issue isn't with the logic behind that as I could see that immediately and I've no doubt everyone else here could. As you say, goals lead to more goals; nothing mysterious in that. No need to refer to Chaos Theory.
The point people are trying to make, to go back to the tornado analogy, is to use the signs of the huge body of warm, wet air as your variables rather than the butterfly. You'll find life easier and more profitable. -
@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer you say touche as banter but actually I give answers back to give people help, but as i say im starting to repeat myself again and its clearly not having an effect. Help is always a message away when you need it mate
It is I assure you. I really can't explain myself anymore than I have done. I appreciate all the help I get on here. Every last bit.
But yes, it was a little bit of banter. Nothing more, nothing less.
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@richard-latimer you say touche as banter but actually I give answers back to give people help, but as i say im starting to repeat myself again and its clearly not having an effect. Help is always a message away when you need it mate
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@darri right you are, that#s annoying. Just too early haha!
I'll get matched first in future.
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@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Oh Jesus, man......
Of course it does. If you want to predict a tornado and you see a massive body of warm air drifting across to a dry colder area, it is much more likely there will be a tornado than if you see a butterfly meandering from flower to flower.
Yes of course but if someone collected millions of lines of data and found something worked but couldn't explain why.....and they weren't interested why.
How is this wrong?
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Oh Jesus, man......
Of course it does. If you want to predict a tornado and you see a massive body of warm air drifting across to a dry colder area, it is much more likely there will be a tornado than if you see a butterfly meandering from flower to flower.
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@darri touche haha
Honeslty though, I do listen but I am also stubborn to a point. I think if I wasn't stubborn I would have given up a long time ago. It's both a curse and a blessing.
I do take your point though on psoting early. I can't post all as I'm busy at times so it doesn't really matter if I miss a few.
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@richard-latimer fair enough, just seems like you have an answer for everything i ever offer and not really listening to me or anyone, i was like that too and stunted my bank growth/i ended up being a gambler and a bad one. I turned the corner when i actually just listened and tried their advice rather than keep going at my own stuff. Good luck, message if you want any help. Please re read some of the posts in the past, actually think my one today is actually a short and simple one yet one of the better ones in terms of your situation iv posted. I hope they help long term, or when you come to do this end of month review at end of june. Good to have seen other get involved and offer advice also, hopefully it will resonate at some stage.
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@stuart-capstick I think the only point being made is that it doesn't really matter haha!
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer yeah and there in lies the issue, your looking at too much detail for too many outcomes. How simple do the others make this look compared to your lists?
If your posting way before an event what value does it bring you to post 20 mins before you can enter? If you wait those 20 mins then enter the trade its in, we all have your list of game from the other posts so know what games your looking at, then you can post when a trade is active. Dont be thinking loads of people are following a new strategy mate, so dont feel like there is pressure on you to post. Just do whats gonna work for you. Just see that you post a trade up and follow it with a goal too early or just missed this, just wait.
People do know what games I'm looking at BUT it's been shown quite a bit that no one understands what I'm looking at and what makes a qualifier for me. I'm just trying to be transparent.
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It's a nice little thought experiment but, really, a tornado is caused when a lot of warm, humid air make contact with colder, drier air.
You can argue about what causes the body of warm, humid air or what causes the cold, drier air. It could ultimately be a butterfly if you look back far enough down the chain of causation, but there would be literally millions of other causal variables- guy sneezing in Kansas or me leaving the shower on a bit longer than normal etc.
What's the key sign of a tornado? Me fannying around with the shower or a massive body of warm, wet air in, say, Indiana? When are you most confident of a tornado?
You are intelligent enough to see the point I am making. Stick to the key determinants.
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@richard-latimer yeah and there in lies the issue, your looking at too much detail for too many outcomes. How simple do the others make this look compared to your lists?
If your posting way before an event what value does it bring you to post 20 mins before you can enter? If you wait those 20 mins then enter the trade its in, we all have your list of game from the other posts so know what games your looking at, then you can post when a trade is active. Dont be thinking loads of people are following a new strategy mate, so dont feel like there is pressure on you to post. Just do whats gonna work for you. Just see that you post a trade up and follow it with a goal too early or just missed this, just wait.
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@darri I also promised to take this back to paper trading at the end of June (possibly July if June continues to be barren) if I'm not seeing significant gains. That promise stands 100%.
I have time but not infinite and I know this.
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@darri I get what you mean but a) if I was so inclined I'd get in now. Just want the better price and b) prefer to concentrate on the actual trade rather than have to worry about posting later.
It's got to be a positive to miss a load rather than hit them and then lose.
I'm not going to go into why I persist on this for now. I'm still in my window, just had no trades for ages. So I've not lost anything haha!!
I would actually just say, I don't think I am trying to reinvent the wheel. I'm just looking at things in MUCH greater detail than I ever have previously.
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@richard-latimer instead of always posting these way before the event/entry why dont you just wait till you actually get matched? Half your posts are just missed it
i just wait till im matched then post that way those getting in after you are getting better prices and it is then actually a trade your inI liked the convo about the butterfly things, quite honestly im in agreement with anyone who doesnt give a monkey as long as its winning. There are so many variables in sport trying to understand why everything works is impossible, its feeding into the discussion we have all had about re inventing the wheel. Why, when we have good strats already kicking about. Why do they all make money. Why does an LTD work so many times, trading in general only really cares about 2 things, price and strike rate. You marry those two up in your favour who cares what else happens. Your ability to find a good strike rate will be as a result of knowing a good detail of some of the variables but if you try to fit a strategy into every scenario your stretching yourself too thin, it should be a small set of scenarios with a small set of variables and master them with knowledge inside out.
Which kind of yet again goes onto this list you have and why its all too much. But best left alone as ill just be repeating myself.
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Right, as things stand....LCS Valur 70th minute.
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@dan-mackinnon said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer I was reading a book earlier and they talked about the butterfly flapping it’s wings can cause a tornado in Texas.
It’s all to do with probability. The butterfly itself isn’t the sole reason but if one change creates 2 outcomes, that might create 2 more each, then those create more, etc. So there is an almost infinite number of possibilities until something happens to omit those opportunities.
You could say a defender has an option to pass back to his keeper or to his wing back. They pass it and so on until there’s a goal. But you wouldn’t say the defender created the goal.
It’s one of those things that sounds more interesting that it is when you actually go into more detail. The same as how Danny Dyer is related to Edward II or whatever - yes about 80% of the country is!
No question but there is the unexplanable and I think the point was, if it works do you really need it explained? I would have been on Valerenga tonight other than my criteria for a 1-1 HT LCS (where home took the lead) is only 1.6-1.8 home scored ave and this was 2.0.
All I know is it saved me a small amount of cash and the criteria holds firm for now.
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@richard-latimer I was reading a book earlier and they talked about the butterfly flapping it’s wings can cause a tornado in Texas.
It’s all to do with probability. The butterfly itself isn’t the sole reason but if one change creates 2 outcomes, that might create 2 more each, then those create more, etc. So there is an almost infinite number of possibilities until something happens to omit those opportunities.
You could say a defender has an option to pass back to his keeper or to his wing back. They pass it and so on until there’s a goal. But you wouldn’t say the defender created the goal.
It’s one of those things that sounds more interesting that it is when you actually go into more detail. The same as how Danny Dyer is related to Edward II or whatever - yes about 80% of the country is!
