Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Martin]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer that's good news! what's the strike rate and average lay odds?

I'm only about 50 selections in and not quite settled yet but between 65-70% if it continues. Not calculated average odds yet because I've only just started live testing but had plenty under evens. Iwata just before HT. I didn't get on but you could lay them for 1.35. I laid Necaxa the other night for 1.29 in the fh and ended 1-1. Penafiel yesterday @ 1.69 I think it was. Oh yeah and Botafogo in serie C were about 1.17, got carded and you could lay for 1.07. Ended 1-1.

so usually short odds on? won 65-70 is huge then!

[Richard Latimer]

Same on the trialled filter. Nothing until gone 16:00.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing early doors tomorrow. Fun doesn't start until 14:00 so I'll post the ELO's then.

[Richard Latimer]

Belgium have been doing their best to stick it to me since I excluded them from the ELO's and and started tracking without money. 4 greens and a small loss!

[Richard Latimer]

Well if Estoril don't concede 2 2nd half goals without reply that's it today. Only qualifier on the trial was an overnight winner in Columbia.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

And the trial:

I'm not at all sure about how I feel on HIFK. While they've come back 4/5 times, SJK haven't relinquished the lead once when they've taken it. I'll probably leave that one and track as after Sagan Tosu today I did notice they'd only relinquished the lead once in 4 times (25%) and I was already looking at that as an outlier thinking well none of my other fixtures have been that low for away team comebacks.

I was right to be wary of HIFK. Now down 2-0.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer that's good news! what's the strike rate and average lay odds?

I'm only about 50 selections in and not quite settled yet but between 65-70% if it continues. Not calculated average odds yet because I've only just started live testing but had plenty under evens. Iwata just before HT. I didn't get on but you could lay them for 1.35. I laid Necaxa the other night for 1.29 in the fh and ended 1-1. Penafiel yesterday @ 1.69 I think it was. Oh yeah and Botafogo in serie C were about 1.17, got carded and you could lay for 1.07. Ended 1-1.

I should clarify. I had well over selections but while I could tell there was something there I wasn't collecting enough data and was generating far too much each day which was real 50/50. I started tracking how often the opposing team would take the lead and let it slip as well as how often a team would make a comeback which was giving a much overall picture.

I still knew it wasn't any good without further amendments and decided to look at cutting out very early season games. Data instantly showed massive improvements 6 combined games in (3 weeks I guess).

After this weekend I was up to around 75 selections again but had already started highlighting areas I want happy with. As they continued to perform sub par I took the next step and it's down to around 45 selections in 16 days.

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer that's good news! what's the strike rate and average lay odds?

I'm only about 50 selections in and not quite settled yet but between 65-70% if it continues. Not calculated average odds yet because I've only just started live testing but had plenty under evens. Iwata just before HT. I didn't get on but you could lay them for 1.35. I laid Necaxa the other night for 1.29 in the fh and ended 1-1. Penafiel yesterday @ 1.69 I think it was. Oh yeah and Botafogo in serie C were about 1.17, got carded and you could lay for 1.07. Ended 1-1.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer that's good news! what's the strike rate and average lay odds?

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

How's it all been going overall?

September has been arse with one thing or another but confident going into Oct. Really feel good about the new filter as some seriously low prices are winning.

[Martin]

How's it all been going overall?

[Richard Latimer]

And the trial:

I'm not at all sure about how I feel on HIFK. While they've come back 4/5 times, SJK haven't relinquished the lead once when they've taken it. I'll probably leave that one and track as after Sagan Tosu today I did notice they'd only relinquished the lead once in 4 times (25%) and I was already looking at that as an outlier thinking well none of my other fixtures have been that low for away team comebacks.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

In the end today was just a break even exercise with a couple of losses with 2 moderate losses negating the 3 medium greens.

Not the Danish game. Haven't played enough games.

[Richard Latimer]

In the end today was just a break even exercise with a couple of losses with 2 moderate losses negating the 3 medium greens.

[Richard Latimer]

There are things to be worked on in my new filter but then it's still picking up as much green as the ELO's currently. Poli Iasi lay didn't work out do well.

Regardless, looks like it's going to be a winning day and I need a few of those at the moment.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Streamlined version of the trial which right now is doing better than the ELO's:

I've removed Azerbaijan but stay clear of Russia and Slovenia in particular as well. When there is more time in the week I will try and sift through all this data.

Oh yeah and I repeat, stay away from the red box.

[Richard Latimer]

Streamlined version of the trial which right now is doing better than the ELO's:

I've removed Azerbaijan but stay clear of Russia and Slovenia in particular as well. When there is more time in the week I will try and sift through all this data.

[Richard Latimer]

Here's the streamlined version of ELO's. Feeling a little cursed at the moment but it'll go I'm sure:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

And here again my live test of new filter similar in theory concentrating on comebacks:

As before stay away from the red boxes. Need to find a quicker way of doing this as taking me too long. These are finding some really nice low price lays though. 2 tonight in the 1.2's with Botafogo and Necaxa coming back even after a red.

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

And here again my live test of new filter similar in theory concentrating on comebacks:

As before stay away from the red boxes. Need to find a quicker way of doing this as taking me too long. These are finding some really nice low price lays though. 2 tonight in the 1.2's with Botafogo and Necaxa coming back even after a red.

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

And here again my live test of new filter similar in theory concentrating on comebacks:

As before stay away from the red boxes. Need to find a quicker way of doing this as taking me too long. These are finding some really nice low price lays though. 2 tonight in the 1.2's with Botafogo and Necaxa coming back even after a red.

One more thing, I'll be going through taking out matches with less than 6 games combined played in the season tomorrow. Need bed now though.

[Richard Latimer]

And here again my live test of new filter similar in theory concentrating on comebacks:

As before stay away from the red boxes. Need to find a quicker way of doing this as taking me too long. These are finding some really nice low price lays though. 2 tonight in the 1.2's with Botafogo and Necaxa coming back even after a red.