Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Think I'll let off some steam on my own thread rather than the football thread and be ready to put things right tomorrow or later this evening if the opportunity arises.

Got in Trabzon for a quick green. That was nice.
Got Vorwartz or whatever they're called. Quick green on a very low lay price.
Then I had to go and get fuel and completely missed the fact they'd fallen behind again before they made it 2-2 of course. At 2-3 it was one of those, well I've missed the 2nd and don't want to be burned on the 3rd. 3-3 and a missed op for sure.

My H2 filter which I'm not really putting out there yet. Decided ages ago that recently promoted/relegated teams are bad news for this but don't want to simply exclude from filter for 2 reasons. 1, when the team in question has come from a league not on the stats it doesn't catch this. 2, when the teams have played 8 games in their current league I am happy. No way to do this on filter.

So it's all on brain power. Trouble is I don't have enough of that and keep making the same mistakes over and over. Did it tonight in Bulgaria. Montana newly promoted so should never have gone near it. But I forgot.

I tried going through before the match but then there's so many potentials before games get ruled out for one reason on another it was taking an age.

Anyway, maybe I figured if I put it on here it may jog the old grey matter before I rinse and repeat again and again and again and again ad infinitum.

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Think I'll let off some steam on my own thread rather than the football thread and be ready to put things right tomorrow or later this evening if the opportunity arises.

Got in Trabzon for a quick green. That was nice.
Got Vorwartz or whatever they're called. Quick green on a very low lay price.
Then I had to go and get fuel and completely missed the fact they'd fallen behind again before they made it 2-2 of course. At 2-3 it was one of those, well I've missed the 2nd and don't want to be burned on the 3rd. 3-3 and a missed op for sure.

My H2 filter which I'm not really putting out there yet. Decided ages ago that recently promoted/relegated teams are bad news for this but don't want to simply exclude from filter for 2 reasons. 1, when the team in question has come from a league not on the stats it doesn't catch this. 2, when the teams have played 8 games in their current league I am happy. No way to do this on filter.

So it's all on brain power. Trouble is I don't have enough of that and keep making the same mistakes over and over. Did it tonight in Bulgaria. Montana newly promoted so should never have gone near it. But I forgot.

I tried going through before the match but then there's so many potentials before games get ruled out for one reason on another it was taking an age.

Anyway, maybe I figured if I put it on here it may jog the old grey matter before I rinse and repeat again and again and again and again ad infinitum.

Oh yeah and I took the dog with me to run an errand. He was misbehaving and subsequently I missed out on the HSV game which was 1-2 for no more than 2 minutes.

[Richard Latimer]

Think I'll let off some steam on my own thread rather than the football thread and be ready to put things right tomorrow or later this evening if the opportunity arises.

Got in Trabzon for a quick green. That was nice.
Got Vorwartz or whatever they're called. Quick green on a very low lay price.
Then I had to go and get fuel and completely missed the fact they'd fallen behind again before they made it 2-2 of course. At 2-3 it was one of those, well I've missed the 2nd and don't want to be burned on the 3rd. 3-3 and a missed op for sure.

My H2 filter which I'm not really putting out there yet. Decided ages ago that recently promoted/relegated teams are bad news for this but don't want to simply exclude from filter for 2 reasons. 1, when the team in question has come from a league not on the stats it doesn't catch this. 2, when the teams have played 8 games in their current league I am happy. No way to do this on filter.

So it's all on brain power. Trouble is I don't have enough of that and keep making the same mistakes over and over. Did it tonight in Bulgaria. Montana newly promoted so should never have gone near it. But I forgot.

I tried going through before the match but then there's so many potentials before games get ruled out for one reason on another it was taking an age.

Anyway, maybe I figured if I put it on here it may jog the old grey matter before I rinse and repeat again and again and again and again ad infinitum.

[Richard Latimer]

Much ELO potential for tomorrow:

The ones without any colour coding are not qualifiers for this. They just have a good comeback rating and I want track them for a bit.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Nothing qualified at all today. Didn't stop me making a mistake on my second half goal filter which confined me to yet another red day. These for tomorrow - unrestricted in terms of league selection at present but you can guarantee I won't be going near Russia or South Africa on these.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing qualified at all today. Didn't stop me making a mistake on my second half goal filter which confined me to yet another red day. These for tomorrow - unrestricted in terms of league selection at present but you can guarantee I won't be going near Russia or South Africa on these.

[Richard Latimer]

Unless Parana qualifies in a bit it was just the one loser on ELO's today.

Also hit 2 losers on my 2nd half goal filter despite it being a 50/50 split day (missed the first 2 which won):

For tomorrow:

[Richard Latimer]

So so day. Should have been fairly exceptional but a couple of nasty ones at either end of the day spoilt things somewhat. Tomorrows:

Really only Belarus I'd be unsure of there.

[Richard Latimer]

Another mega list to be sorted through:

Todays were a bit indifferent although no real loss. Hopefully find some form with these.

I made some good green on the 2nd half filter but then luckily stopped while I was ahead as hit a few losses after that. That being said I missed a load this morning and a couple in the afternoon so swings and roundabouts.

[Richard Latimer]

These are the leagues I'm more confident of in terms of consistency. Wouldn't normally include League 2 in that but then they don't normally play at 13:00 for the TV cameras.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

The unedited list for Saturday. Although I'll not touch Russia and Slovenia the others from excluded leagues will be on a case by case basis as last week.

[Richard Latimer]

The unedited list for Saturday. Although I'll not touch Russia and Slovenia the others from excluded leagues will be on a case by case basis as last week.

[Richard Latimer]

On the ELO front:

Well Junior conceded first,
Then they conceded again,
Then again,
And again
And again

Useless bastards haha!!

Graafschap also shipped the first goal. Unfortunately they were back on terms before you could finish reading the score.

All in all a crap night for the ELO's and a bit of a crap week thus far.

[Richard Latimer]

One small amendment as of tonight. Not excluding promoted/relegated teams per se but they need to have enough data to go on in their current league. I'm thinking a minimum of 8 h/a specific at the moment.

[Richard Latimer]

Wasn't expecting to get any questions on my second half goal filter at such an early stage but seeing as I have I'll outline a quick summary here. A screenshot would have been easier but stats appear to be down again.

So the basic premise is the same as Garys H2 filter. It appears to be doing very well but what I've never liked is the odds parameter. For me, something having better potential value should never be a reason to rule it out. Also, odds are variable and it makes the filter variable depending on when you look.

So as I say, the base is Garys filter. I went into that, removed odds criteria and added the following but with no restriction:

Overall Scored H2% >=0
Home Scored H2% >=0

I also removed the restriction for current season only and rather than simply rule out all early games I'm tracking how many games have been played in a season by both teams/combined (not h/a specific). Ideally I just want to let them bed in for around 1 month and then use data from both seasons until there is enough of the current.

I've removed the filter for inplay only as betfair chop and change this at will. Just because they plan one thing doesn't mean they'll stick to that.

I've removed exclude playoffs as I've found the 2nd playoff can be higher scoring when both teams know what they have to do to qualify. First leg cagey, 2nd leg open.

That's it initially.

It's bringing up a monster list each day but doesn't mean many qualify. Because I'm doing LTD to keep liability down this knocks out a whole load of games. I'm then of the opinion that 1 H2 goal is easier to come by than 2. It may well be that it could be profitable even if H2 goal had already been scored but I believe to truly optimise it's best to simply get rid if not drawing @ HT.

This narrows it down considerably but still not enough.

If 0-0 I'm happy to LTD on any selection from 59mins (catches goals in the 60th min). If 1-1 I'm looking for 85%+ on a H2 goal being scored.

There's not been a 2-2 yet or a 3-3 and I'm not eaxactly sure on the significance of a Home Scored H2% as yet - will continue to track.

That's it. Very early stages, work in progress with good initial results at decent odds. If I can hit 75% at these odds there should be no reason not to profit. 75% should be well within reach and I'm aiming for closer to 80%. We shall see.

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

1x ELO and it was good. Suduva with a textbook comeback. Nice and easy, how it should always be haha!

I'm trying out a new filter for 2nd half goals but I've decided to LTD to keep that all important liability down. I'm basing it on Garys filter but crucially have removed the odds requirement as to me that's problematic. A selection could slip in and out depending on when you look.

I also will be using data from the season previous but more than likely rule out the very early season games just to give them chance to get up to speed. The idea will be to have some data from current season to add to the data from last season before making any plays.This very much depends on the data I collect over time but right now it's the plan.

I'll give it a week to make sure it's not a complete flash in the pan before I start posting updates on my testing.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

ELO's for Tuesday. Included English leagues long ago ruled out in case the inplay stats look too good too pass up. This is all I have for now having given up on the trial and being not ready to share anything else just yet. I'm desperate for one more strat to go with this but thus far it just hasn't been happening.

[Richard Latimer]

ELO's for Tuesday. Included English leagues long ago ruled out in case the inplay stats look too good too pass up. This is all I have for now having given up on the trial and being not ready to share anything else just yet. I'm desperate for one more strat to go with this but thus far it just hasn't been happening.

[Richard Latimer]

Another 1.5pts down on ELO today. It's not been a good weekend there. Today however, I see nothing that could be changed. Didn't foresee a shutout for Split against Sibenik at all!

The trial was taking too much of my time and the way it was beginning to go it had started to look like one of the many 'great' ideas that you start tracking just at THE most purple patch and then as soon as you go live it all goes down hill. I think it just shows how incredibly difficult sides are. It's one thing knowing how many times x team came back but quite another in terms of the quality they were up against each time.

In addition, as documented on the foootball thread earlier I got involved in 2 leagues I haven't touched for a while purely based on the inplay stats. Both teams appeared to be dominant and goals had come against the run of play. Worked out well with 2 quick comebacks.

I think I'll stay with this, try and refine both it and how I play it while working on a filter for goals. Meantime I'm going to keep playing Gary H2 filter.

Not quite sure how he is benefitting so much from backing for an over 1.5 in H2 though and redding on 75 if no goal. Tried this and actually ended slightly red with a goal in the 72nd. A goal around 65mins is virtually break even.

I'm thinking drip laying the under from 4.0min might be a good idea.

so 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.5.

I prefer the lay as I'd want to benefit well enough for a goal on the first level seeing as this is where the majority or at least a decent quantity would come from.

[Richard Latimer]

On ELO's alone yesterday, it was hardly a disaster. 1.5pts down in the end. Nevertheless there's a couple things that concern me. Not doing anything at the moment but when ELO down around the 100-105 mark in difference either way it's a bit 50/50. Most of the time the odds reflect this.

Also, I'm going to continue with the reduce liability and wait for big comeback approach at the moment but ever since almost every game was coming back from 2 goals down and I was getting fed up as all I could see was YESSS!!!! and Boom!!!. BIG greeen etc etc after I'd either red out or took minimal green.......now there's been a bit of a return to the way things were. Under 50% s/r from the games with 2 or more entries.

Aside from that I'm going to try and be a little more dynamic with the poorer performing leagues today rather than rule them out completely. If all the inplay stats point towards a comeback and odds ok I may hit it. Who knows.