Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Couldn't resist!
Essentially it's what I've been doing over on the facebook page so if you've been following you'll know the deal by now.
There's official and monitored and the whole damn thing is fluid right now although I'm getting closer to what I feel will be the final product.
In any case it's all detailed on the attached sheet:
Will update for tomorrow asap
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Reason to be optimistic tomorrow:
All other than Hungary have good data and all have been good thus far. Hungary is the only one where this appears to be the first selection.
With that in mind probably do the 4 tomorrow.
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Of course the German game won today didn't it haha!
Regardless, need to see a lot more before I consider it again for reals.
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Looks like a barren Saturday:
As much as German Bundesliga is still technically a qualifier results have been too poor for me to consider it here.
Serbian game looks to have prohibitive odds. If that's the way it stays then I can count this as a small losing month but at least I got a load back last week.
December needs to be better....much much better!
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@Richard-Latimer Thanks for the reply Richard
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@nick I know I can't avoid variance but clearly the aim is to minimise it.
If no logical reason within the parameters can be found to exclude a game or set of games then they must stand.
If the parameters are in the negative or the league is in the negative then this is something to exclude whether temporarily or eventually permanently.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer I think that the international break has seem to have a real effect on results especially after this last one. I dont know if you have any results from previous ones over the past couple of years.
No break now until March so hopefully that will help things to settle down for the next few months.
Many unusual results this weekend, definite a time to reflect take a deep breath and go again.How do you look at monitoring variance with this? You seemed to have bucked the trend this weekend winning when many others have been losing.
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Swiss Super League and German Bundesliga still just about in profit but the s/r and yield are way down. Included in table but I'll be holding off on any decisions or trades until I see a change for better or worse.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Make that £260 down for Nov:
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Currently the system is showing just under a 3pt profit for Nov with a 71% s/r. Been tough but good to see it turn around. Myself, I'm around £200 down now but I'll know the exact as soon as I've finished my updates.
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That didn't feel easy but finally snapped the bad luck with a gain of around £400 this weekend.
Will post full update in a bit.
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Still got the NEC lay to go this morning and here are the afteroon selections:
I'm still unsure as to whether to hit the Swiss game. Yield is good in this league due to average odds....but it could swing back easy enough at present.
Only 3 selections in Bulgarian league thus far but all winners.
Most leagues other than a few could easily be influenced by a big odds loser so to an extent I have to have faith and let the system ride unless I'm prepared to wait another year.
Tempted to do them all today as no leagues with less than 3 selections.
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Break even day so with yesterday I'm actually up with one day of the weekend to go.
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Glad I left Scotland alone today but Bundesliga has gone from teetering to getting in the bin temporarily.
Someone said 4 wins on the bounce proves nothing. True enough. Same with 5.
Now 3 Bundesliga losses on the bounce.
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Busy day tomorrow:
Thinking I'll leave Scots Prem alone as only one selection thus far.
Poland may not qualify as odds very low at present. Plus minimal data on league even if it does reach 1.9 before kick off.
Bundesliga is teetering after a couple of lowish odds losses but before that it hit 5 wins on the spin so I'll probably still hit that.The rest I'm happy with provided all odds criteria met.
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Thought yet another red card for violent conduct had done me but thankfully it ended in a draw.
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Bit disappointed at the volume available pre kick-off but this league has been so good I'm not prepared to drop it until I really need to.
10 wins without loss is not to be sniffed at....even if today goes wrong.
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Here we go again!
It's not what I would have chosen to get the ball rolling again but all stats well within range to the extent the result won't influence any decision after the fact.
Also UAE has yet to give me a loss (jinx).
Wasl seemed to be the dominant force last season but have started in less than impressive form. If this system was about most recent form then Wahda look the far more likely to win. However, I'm going with what has worked since Feb so that's just that.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
I'm not about to do this now either (burnt trying this too early in the past) but it looks to me as if a very good system of backing the home underdog (mostly the underdog anyway) could be found in using all the fixtures I exclude from raw data on my filter.
Currently 58% s/r with average odds around 3.5 I reckon. Certainly well over 3.0 (I only have the published lay prices as well as those I was able to obtain myself).
I totally meant 42% (actually 43%). Just forgot to flip around what I was looking for. Still seems very healthy.
