Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Stuart Capstick]

Richard, I don't think anyone cast doubt on your system/strategy. The reason being we can't really know anything about as you only have at best @100 pieces of data for each scoreline. Frankly, that's nowhere near enough to be confident.

By all means collect more data on this, but in the period of data collection there is a tonne of other systems etc that you could use to build your bank. You don't need to use money on this system yet.

[Richard Latimer]

In the absence of anything trading related I think I'll post some waffle.

Firstly it was my intention to vent this morning after finding out my car battery was dead only a year after the bastard garage replaced it therefore going just over the warranty period so they have to do bugger all!

Then I realised an ubereats order hadn't gone through wiith promo code and I've spent all day chasing that.

What a shitty day frankly!!

Anyway, I decided as I calmed down and began to resolve things, I didn't need to do that anymore haha!!

So, a quick overview of where I think my trading is now and what I believe I've collected so far with my pretty much 6 months data grab.

I understand why somebelieve I'm being overtaken by the newbs after I've spent almost half my life looking for the perfect system or why others see a noisy sheet they can't make head nor tail of.

But I think I need to look at it as a series of points more than anything to hopefully shows the growth I have made of recent. Sure, there are still negatives which I'll get to but they are in my opinion outweighed by the positives.

1. Discipline. It used to be I would miss a bet/trade and it would consume me until I had to try and win double on the next so it would be alright again. Of course what happened is that would lose and I would effectively be two trades down rather than 1/2. These days, while it still annoys me, I take it on the chin. If I know of a reason from my data to stay the hell out I do.

It's taken me over 15yrs to conquer that one but I have.

2. continued tracking of the same data and not throwing away what I initially perceive to be unimportant data. I have the excel smart filters to thank for this (thanks @Alan Steward - Not letting me tag) as I could never collect and sort through so much data with all of it being continually in my face. The fact I can block out whatever I want whenever I want has allowed me to concentrate on things individually while not losing sight of what could still be.

In the past I would have got 3 months in, hit a bad run, got annoyed, deleted (archived) it all and gone back to the drawing board. I now view my spreadsheet as perhaps the most important thing I have and the idea of deleting any of it would be inconceivable to coin 'The Princess Bride'.

3. Effort and determination. I update the sheet day in day out (ok some days I'll do it the next day) win or lose and I spend whatever time I need analysing the crap out of it. Not just to get rid of results I don't like but to optimise every single thing. Finding the sweet spot is what it's all about. Much like Arteta, it's a process and I would say I'm in the middle of it. It won't all be smooth sailing but I trust my data and I trust the hands/eyes that have put it together meticulously.

Where I've failed mostly can be put down to one thing. Leaving too many things to chance. When I've made a note for example that red cards haven't been a problem in certain scenarios but failed to note there hadn't been one. Where I've misread the data or noticed soething so glaringly obvious until it was too late.

In an effort to address some of that I spent a good portion of time yesterday putting more detailed information in my lists of criteria that I check before pulling the trigger on anything.

On to the data itself. I would like address some potential misunderstanding people may have about just how much data I have collected so far and in terms of blanket strategy like LCS, how it could already be argued I have enough just on that basis:

LCS 0-0 @ HT Home odd 1.49 or under 91% from 44 selections
LCS 0-1 @ HT Home odds 2.72 or under 88% from 80 selections
LCS 1-0 @ HT Home odds 1.69 or under 88% from 100 selections
LCS 1-1 @ HT 88% from 132 selctions
LCS 2-0 @ HT 91% from 101 selections

That's just raw data using home SH averages around 0.7 upwards. Sometimes a little higher. Yes I'm trying to optimise it so I can keep a decent strike rate while getting in later and for a much better price.

But 450 selections since mid Dec on these base statistics is what gives me confidence on the whole thing.

I just need some actual workable trades now, of which there are none. The old me would have found something else. The new me sits patiently waiting for the opportunity which will come in time.

Excuse typos. I'm sure there will be many haha!

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing again tomorrow. The one I did have isn't on Betfair.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing for tomorrow. It's like the worlds worst and longest interlull!

[Richard Latimer]

Finally got an actual trade yesterday. Turned out to be a loser. Plenty of action and it didn't look like either team were playing to keep the score the same (3 sot, 6 shots off and a bunch of corners in 20 minutes).

Katowice - (Pol 2). 2 quick goals 2nd half, laid under 5.5 @ 4-1 70th minute. Matched @ 2.60. Loss. -1.6pts (-£2.61).

[Richard Latimer]

Bit late but it's doesn't look like anything is going to happen with Atlanta anyway.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing so far today again although JBK only ruled out because of red and only because the scenario hadn't arisen before. Until the data shows otherwise that would be a qualifier.

Frustrating but 7 winners on the bounce and none of them quite fit at the time haha!

[Richard Latimer]

Gonna post these out now cos I'm getting fershnickered today!

[Richard Latimer]

CC Mariners didn't qualify for LCS today on account of the max home odds limit for 1-0 being 1.69 thus far. Nothing to change view on that so far despite today.

That said, when I looked into things a little more this morning something else became apparent as is so often the case.

I had minimum odds limit for over 0.5 SH as 1.12 (remember, these are all taken from ave book price on oddsportal). When I opened that particular criteria out just to get a look at the overall picture I noticed there were too more winners under that limit (1.09 & 1.10). When I imposed the limit it wasn't because I'd had losers at those limits, just no winners yet. Always prefer to exclude and let stuff in rather than the other way around if I remember. It's better for me this way.

Anyway, I follow the data so both Gladbach and Gent are now on the qualifiers. No good for now but very important for the future rounding this thing out.

Don't worry about Lorient. that was already there.

[Richard Latimer]

No that's not right. Get rid of both Sweden games. All others check out fine.

[Richard Latimer]

Finally got a few to look at again:

[Richard Latimer]

Spreadsheet is showing the last 6 trades (COULD HAVE BEEN) as winners.

Al ruled out by the smallest little detail plainly and simply because I didn't have it in my data yet. Going forward they would all be selections until the data tells me otherwwise. Sods law, next time it would be another slight detail missing haha!! Either way, that's how I'm reverse engineering this thing. For clarity it was:

Kansas ruled out by 3rd second half goal coming a minute too late according to the data I had
Wellington Phoenix ruled out by scoreline after the 2nd second half goal not being one I had any data for on the angle I was looking at (a goal in the 60's and another in the 70's).
KR Reykjavik ruled out on odds
Offenbach ruled out on odds
Dortmund II ruled out on odds and home ave being higher than what I had data for

Finally tonight, Grotta, ruled out on odds.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@matt-wood said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Under 5hrs now til the big kick off!!!

Careful with your excitement levels else you will trade prematurely!

I can hardly contain myself. In truth it's going to end up as a non qualifier for sure haha!

Odds too skinny otherwise I'd have been on that for LCS 70th. Oh well.

[Richard Latimer]

@matt-wood said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Under 5hrs now til the big kick off!!!

Careful with your excitement levels else you will trade prematurely!

I can hardly contain myself. In truth it's going to end up as a non qualifier for sure haha!

[Matt Wood]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Under 5hrs now til the big kick off!!!

Careful with your excitement levels else you will trade prematurely!

[Richard Latimer]

Under 5hrs now til the big kick off!!!

[Richard Latimer]

Here we go......Bumper Day!

[Richard Latimer]

Literally sweet FA tomorrow

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Nothing doing tonight in the end. Better than another loser haha!

That said, 2 came very close, both won. Could be qualifiers in future so all good.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing doing tonight in the end. Better than another loser haha!