The BTC Football Trading Thread

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@mark-maguire Cheers, that’s some decent information!

I’ve recorded my split stake for a while and it’s always done well but I (stupidly) didnt trade it for ages as I was annoyed that only 40% of potentials became trades. I now trade it and I’m liking it a lot. Once I automate it I just want to test if there’s a better option, given there are so many early goals

Have you traded it for long? Do you have a good idea of the average winners and losers over time?

Mark Maguire

@lee-woodman Hi mate .. mine is based on early goals - way back when I started and was paper trading and then min stakes I was recording goal times for first and second goals and then total goals. I have three filters for 02.5 which sounds silly but they were all test strategies and have always been slightly different but all similarly profitable so I just kept them going. Anyway the goal times across all showed me that if I didn't enter until 30 mins I would be missing up to 50% of winning trades - so I have varied my split stake and I do as follows:

25% in at start automatically
25% in at 15 mins automatically if no goal
25% in at 35 mins if there are minimum of 3 SOT if no goal
25% in at 45 mins if a further 2 SOT and no goal

In every case if there's a goal I green up. I am out on 60 mins for a loss if no goal as again my stats tell me that after that there's only 11% chance of a goal and in any event it wouldn't return green (6% no goal)

in terms of the early goal and let it run I've some stats on goals before 15 mins leading to another - but tend to focus on games where the underdog has scored against a strong favourite , or where my stats have suggested a correct score of more the three goals if that makes sense?

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@mark-maguire How do you trade the O2.5? I’ve got a filter which is great for goals and good for O1.5 split stake strategy (basically first goal to come between 30-70’). However, there’s loads of early goals and I was toying with the idea that there may be a better way to enter earlier without getting daft odds

I’m the past I’ve traded O2.5 but it was quite basic - ‘enter early and if there’s a goal before HT let it run, otherwise cash out at HT if 0-0’

Mark Maguire

Couple of (perhaps obvious) French games on my LTD today

PSG vs Angers:( didnt trade due to odds)
Troyes vs Marseille

Will need odds to come in on PSG game - Goal too quick to get on the LTD

However will trade PSG 02.5 and FHG (greened up on 02.5)

Marseille will be an 01.5 if and when odds are better than 1.39.. currently 1.25.

Decent night.

Akiva Anderson

Also going for a SHG in the Strasbourg v Lens match. 2-2 at HT

Akiva Anderson

Going for a SHG in the Troyes v Marseille match. 0-1 at HT

Mark Maguire

Couple of (perhaps obvious) French games on my LTD today

PSG vs Angers
Troyes vs Marseille

Will need odds to come in on PSG game

However will trade PSG 02.5 and FHG

Marseille will be an 01.5 if and when odds are better than 1.39.. currently 1.25.

Martin Walker

Filter 1 is by far the best of them. More trades so more reliable and more profit which is essentially the whole reason for this

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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-rome well, if the ROI is the same the only difference is the number of games traded. 15pts is still decent and would easily smash your 100pt target.

Right now you need to average 8.34pts per month. Or if the goal is 100pts from your original bank it'll be even less if you compounded your results.

yeah thats 8 month of data so just shy of a year i think i am going to switch to filter 1 but got some time before next game to friday. Want to make hundred and atm think thats the best option

cheers eveyrone for the help

Dan MacKinnon

@james-rome well, if the ROI is the same the only difference is the number of games traded. 15pts is still decent and would easily smash your 100pt target.

Right now you need to average 8.34pts per month. Or if the goal is 100pts from your original bank it'll be even less if you compounded your results.

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@dan-mackinnon thats the only thing is the amount of games i was wanting to reduce them but i also dont want to lose out on profit. I think ill have a think then decide by weekend curently leaning towards filter 1

Dan MacKinnon

@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Hi All

After some advise some of you may be following my forum where i am working on making 100 Points this year from my over 1.5 filter. Over world cup looked into my filter thought would a good soultion to reduce games and still keep high points total

Done some diving and ive found if i filter down my leagues ill have more trades but same ROI but more games so over the year it had a greater profit.

All results Based on backing with 1 point

Filter one

Trades 249
Total Points +31.15
ROI 12.5%

Filter 2
Trades 118
Total Points +15.27
ROI 12.9%

So filter two has a slightly higher ROI but less games so my question is what would a pro think ? Would they game for the filter with more games ?

Ive attached the Excel for reference
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13ucglvNdwZUR5R_TIrTIiueXE9IgakdVPm4NgbBrfHA/edit?usp=sharing

Anyones comments would be greatly appreicated

If your goal is to reach 100pts then filter 1 is best.
If your goal is to trade fewer games then filter 2.

Although they have the same ROI, it'll take twice as long trading half the number of games. If it were me I'd go with filter 1 assuming you can handle that number of trades.

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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-rome Logically speaking, trading all the games on filter 2 is actually the 3rd best option:

Trade everything on filter 1 (maximum profit)

Trade 50% of the days on filter 1 (same profit as option 3 but half the time!)

Same number of trading days as option 1 but half the profit

Thats what i thought makes more sense to do that but I just some other peoples opionions as a sense check

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@james-rome Logically speaking, trading all the games on filter 2 is actually the 3rd best option:

Trade everything on filter 1 (maximum profit)
Trade 50% of the days on filter 1 (same profit as option 3 but half the time!)
Same number of trading days as option 1 but half the profit

Martin

@james-rome yes profit is king

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Hi All

After some advise some of you may be following my forum where i am working on making 100 Points this year from my over 1.5 filter. Over world cup looked into my filter thought would a good soultion to reduce games and still keep high points total

Done some diving and ive found if i filter down my leagues ill have more trades but same ROI but more games so over the year it had a greater profit.

All results Based on backing with 1 point

Filter one

Trades 249
Total Points +31.15
ROI 12.5%

Filter 2
Trades 118
Total Points +15.27
ROI 12.9%

So filter two has a slightly higher ROI but less games so my question is what would a pro think ? Would they game for the filter with more games ?

Ive attached the Excel for reference
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13ucglvNdwZUR5R_TIrTIiueXE9IgakdVPm4NgbBrfHA/edit?usp=sharing

Anyones comments would be greatly appreicated

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Lay Under 1.5 Pachuca in Mehico

5-1 and 2-0 after 9 mins so another W

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5 Pachuca in Mehico

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Lay Under 1.5 Alanyaspor

2-0

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5 Alanyaspor