The BTC Football Trading Thread
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SHG in the Aston Villa v Leeds match. 1-0 approaching HT
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@keith-anderson 15% on each?!
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SHG in the Westerlo v Leuven match. 0-0 at HT
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SHG in the Hearts v St Mirren match. 1-0 at HT
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Quiet but nice -
LTD
Galatasaray vs Hatayspor
This will also be an 01.5 trade albeit cautious staking in play
O2.5 Hearts vs St Mirren
Green after first and FHG -
This post is deleted!
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman Haven't forgotten this will get to it over the weekend mate
No rush mate and no need to do anything elaborate!
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@lee-woodman Haven't forgotten this will get to it over the weekend mate
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Quiet on the filters which is a good job because I'm flying back this afternoon.. of note are
LTD
Galatasaray vs Hatayspor
This will also be an 01.5 trade albeit cautious staking in play
O2.5 Hearts vs St Mirren
This will also be a FHG
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@rene-pichl We've had people not get this, make sure you add [email protected] to your safe list - contacts.
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@rene-pichl said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
good morning!
how to get into the list of the daily selections-email?
it's automatic on sign up, your sign up email that you signed up with a couple of hours ago is on the list
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good morning!
how to get into the list of the daily selections-email?
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SHG in the Fulham v Chelsea match. 1-0 at HT
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@lee-woodman sound like you're getting similar percentages so opportunity for you to go in earlier?
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman I'll take a look at that later and post it.. the irony is that the better profit comes with goals between 15 and 20 or 35 and 40 because of the staking.. in terms of when my goals come ..33% are in the first 15 mins, 30% between 15 and 35 mins and 21% between 35 and 60mins.. I've recorded the percentages in 5 minute segments 0-5 5-10 etc and have over three thousand games of data so its fairly solid. I fully intend when I have the time to analyse if I can improve the sweet spot for staking based on those timings and equally because of the early nature of goals I'm working out probability of FHG on this and my LTD trades to develop a FHG strategy - at the moment if probability is 95% or better I will trade it. I'll put some stuff up re the average profit.
So ive had a quick look and there are 1725 games which are on my O1.5 filter. Now i have filtered some out and i do have the original complete list aswell so i could possibly increase these numbers:
0-15 - 606 (35.1%)
16-35 - 548 (31.7%)
36-60 - 348 (20.1%)
61+ (or 0-0) - 223 (12.9%) -
@mark-maguire That’d be great regarding profit but don’t go to any level of trouble for me. Just an ‘average profit of all winners’ and ‘average loss of all losers’ would sufficient to see whether it’s something that could be worth properly testing
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@lee-woodman I'll take a look at that later and post it.. the irony is that the better profit comes with goals between 15 and 20 or 35 and 40 because of the staking.. in terms of when my goals come ..33% are in the first 15 mins, 30% between 15 and 35 mins and 21% between 35 and 60mins.. I've recorded the percentages in 5 minute segments 0-5 5-10 etc and have over three thousand games of data so its fairly solid. I fully intend when I have the time to analyse if I can improve the sweet spot for staking based on those timings and equally because of the early nature of goals I'm working out probability of FHG on this and my LTD trades to develop a FHG strategy - at the moment if probability is 95% or better I will trade it. I'll put some stuff up re the average profit.
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@mark-maguire I’ve definitely seen those games….I could probably tell you a few that are bound to happen this next weekend if you give me a minute to check my filters
Do you have any idea of the average profit per winnings trace and average loss per losing trade? I get that it varies but over a lot of games it’s usually possible to get a good idea as a basis point
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@lee-woodman yes mate I have about two years of data. I tweaked it about eight months ago to include ELO ratings in a couple of the filters .. but overall the figures are that I have around 83-86% green across the filters. I've done a lot of work looking at where trades havent worked .. I'm more cautious where the favourite is away from home and odds aren't strong. Or where two teams are very evenly matched and close in the table. Other than that the losses tend to be random as you get in football.. we've all seen the games .. 20 SOT and nil nil
