The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Speaking for myself I find I need the discipline of analysing the data every day to channel my decision making.
Can't wait for the new software in the meantime I use soccer stats along with Football Ratings on BTC.. and extract the data I need putting it into my spreadsheet .. Saturday and Sunday that can be 2 hours work, weekdays an hour .. and the spreadsheet was many hours in the development .. but every minute worth it for me.
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 you are essentially describing the backtesting software that @Adam is developing for us currently.
We are actually spending a couple of grand on data today to start getting the software ready for beta testing.
This really is going to be a game changer. It would make my 8 month manual backtest possible in minutes which I'm looking forward to very much!
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For me it’s all about striking a balance with regard to analyzing and then tinkering your strategies. There is a danger that over analyzing and over-tinkering can lead you down rabbit holes and effectively mean your are back fitting as well. I had this problem last year on an over 1.5 filter which I’ve now scrapped.
Can’t wait for the football back testing because if it’s anything like the horse racing it will be a game changer and make it so easier to test any changes you make along the way .
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer It's a very good point Richard, I think the difficult thing for me is finding those correlations. It's easier in my opinion to look at leagues as that information is static it's either performing in a league or isn't. But when it comes to other data analysis I do tend to struggle. What I've done in the past is ask myself “what am I looking for in this trade”, if it's over 2.5 goals am I looking for a strong 2.5 G percentage for both home and away, am I looking at goal averages, am I looking at home performances, and I end up recording so many pieces of data but then when it comes to analysing it I'm none the wiser. And I think this is the issue with me is that I just don't know how to breakdown the data to filter out selections. It could also be a time issue of course, I work full time in quite a demanding job but I'm willing to put in the time. I don’t have any kids and I’ve been trading sports for over 3 years so im learning everyday
I micro analyse everything. Every loss I suffer. If I can see a logical reason why it may have happened that isn't pure random I will keep the data but take it out of the firing line as an official selection so to speak until the data shows me it should be in there.
Sometimes this average is too high and this hardly ever happens. Sometimes it's this one is too low. Again it never happens.so if you take a loss in the year There's a good chance you'd struggle to get it back. Also, data at either end of the spectrum often turns out a mixed bag for me.
The sweet spot right in the middle is where it's at most of the time. Not too low, not too high and plenty of data that keeps coming in to back it up.
I know my sheet confuses the f**k out of people but if anyone would like to look and ask questions feel free. It may just trigger something in your own mind.
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@richard-latimer It's a very good point Richard, I think the difficult thing for me is finding those correlations. It's easier in my opinion to look at leagues as that information is static it's either performing in a league or isn't. But when it comes to other data analysis I do tend to struggle. What I've done in the past is ask myself “what am I looking for in this trade”, if it's over 2.5 goals am I looking for a strong 2.5 G percentage for both home and away, am I looking at goal averages, am I looking at home performances, and I end up recording so many pieces of data but then when it comes to analysing it I'm none the wiser. And I think this is the issue with me is that I just don't know how to breakdown the data to filter out selections. It could also be a time issue of course, I work full time in quite a demanding job but I'm willing to put in the time. I don’t have any kids and I’ve been trading sports for over 3 years so im learning everyday
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-everard you've nothing to be sorry about mate we have all felt the same way . I've felt exactly those emotions... and I have chased losses in the past too .. what helped me with that was my record keeping.. I made myself go back and do the maths if I'd stuck to the rules and it showed me I'd have made money whereas my chasing created a chunky loss. It happened more than once I can assure you. If you havent confidence in the strategies or filters you've created there is no shame in that either .. I've gone down dark alleys where an idea didnt work too and then its back to basics .. nothing wrong with following proven filters and then tweak them as you have ideas... I probably spend more time looking for commonality in losing trades than anything else . I wish you nothing but the best mate .. I'm sure everyone on here can relate !!
i too look for commonality but its more difficult than it seems, for example Tom u1.5 filter has a mare in south african leagues, since then its massively recovered. How much is commonality and how much is variance? but hey if trading is easy we would all be rich, its why risk management is the most effective tool in our arsenel, others would disagree, on of course it means getting rich slow..................so the lambo's going back
I think for me, what has helped is collecitng much more data than I would have previously. You think to yourself this probably isn't relevant but then you pick up a few losses, go back and check and low and behold. The seemingly irrelevant data you just started collecting shows something you'd missed before. You collect the data you'd missed manually and yes....a pattern begins to emerge. With 200+ selections I am only now beginning to see what I believe will be consistent profit and only getting to trade around half my qualfiers as I'm waiting for more data.
That said, if more issues show themselves I'm ready to take it on the chin. The data is only moving one way even though I've had to analyse the s**t out of it to get it there haha!!
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That'll do
Of the two there's an argument to trade Roda vs Zwolle on over 2.5.. my stats say 1.62 and odds on Betfair are 1.7, so will probably split stake out after 60 mins if no goal. Its a league where there can be ups and downs so I will trade cautiously.
Having said that of the last 50 games in the Eerste division on this filter 40 have had a FHG .. so with odds at 1.41 as opposed to my rough probability of 80% (1.34) that is worth a trade.
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@nick-allan I think as much as anything else if I check then get to the point where I'm confident enough that the losing trades are random then it reassures me the filter is in a decent place.. but I make myself keep going back to check
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-everard you've nothing to be sorry about mate we have all felt the same way . I've felt exactly those emotions... and I have chased losses in the past too .. what helped me with that was my record keeping.. I made myself go back and do the maths if I'd stuck to the rules and it showed me I'd have made money whereas my chasing created a chunky loss. It happened more than once I can assure you. If you havent confidence in the strategies or filters you've created there is no shame in that either .. I've gone down dark alleys where an idea didnt work too and then its back to basics .. nothing wrong with following proven filters and then tweak them as you have ideas... I probably spend more time looking for commonality in losing trades than anything else . I wish you nothing but the best mate .. I'm sure everyone on here can relate !!
i too look for commonality but its more difficult than it seems, for example Tom u1.5 filter has a mare in south african leagues, since then its massively recovered. How much is commonality and how much is variance? but hey if trading is easy we would all be rich, its why risk management is the most effective tool in our arsenel, others would disagree, on of course it means getting rich slow..................so the lambo's going back
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@james-everard you've nothing to be sorry about mate we have all felt the same way . I've felt exactly those emotions... and I have chased losses in the past too .. what helped me with that was my record keeping.. I made myself go back and do the maths if I'd stuck to the rules and it showed me I'd have made money whereas my chasing created a chunky loss. It happened more than once I can assure you. If you havent confidence in the strategies or filters you've created there is no shame in that either .. I've gone down dark alleys where an idea didnt work too and then its back to basics .. nothing wrong with following proven filters and then tweak them as you have ideas... I probably spend more time looking for commonality in losing trades than anything else . I wish you nothing but the best mate .. I'm sure everyone on here can relate !!
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Very quiet on the filters today .. nothing in LTD or O1.5 and nothing comes up on FHG.
Two on 02.5 but stats not the strongest. This is where I have to fight the temptation to trade for the sake of trading.
Of the two there's an argument to trade Roda vs Zwolle on over 2.5.. my stats say 1.62 and odds on Betfair are 1.7, so will probably split stake out after 60 mins if no goal. Its a league where there can be ups and downs so I will trade cautiously.
Having said that of the last 50 games in the Eerste division on this filter 40 have had a FHG .. so with odds at 1.41 as opposed to my rough probability of 80% (1.34) that is worth a trade.
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-everard they are not markets I have traded and generally only trade late goals following Keith on here.
How did you arrive at what to trade? What was the idea you wanted to test? My journey has been two years now and started with something I wanted to test.. I started with 02.5 goals and in simple terms felt that basing filters on previous match results was inaccurate. I've worked at football clubs and the common attitude of managers is/was (and I paraphrase) "I'm not p*ssed off with the strikers for not scoring because he's getting in the right areas, and we are getting chances".. My theory that developed from that was that the act of scoring the goal is random and is based partly on luck, partly on error and partly on elements of chance.. the goal keeper being out of place , a defender being out of place, striker being in the right place, it hitting his body at the right angle.. so without rambling I looked for stats which led to the ball being in the right place often enough in previous games for that bit of luck to happen.
My next step was to tailor that to how I wanted to trade .. in and out early.. so chances happening early.. it could equally be done for later in the game I guess.
Then when I started exploring stats, goal times etc it showed me the sweet spot for staking, brought in ELO's which led me to look at results related to them and my LTD .. then people like Keith inspired the 01.5 stuff...and then things that people like Keith say.. for inplay has been massive.. he talked a year ago about the principle of "space" in games and I've been considering it ever since in inplay decisions when I can.. its what got me to be too greedy at Marseille last night .. but id make the same decision again because it was right even though it went wrong!
The point I'm making is that I had a theory .. I've screwed up more times than I care to mention on the journey and a key final part was the mental part.. I had to listen to trading in the zone twice for it to inbed in my brain.. I still consider myself a rooky.. but I had a sound base which I tested, explored, developed and pretty much every month a new idea comes up which I follow down a new burrow and often find a dead end but that testing and reviewing and looking at what the stats tell me has been invaluable to me.. equally some other people have a character that need to be more spontaneous .. every time I've tried that way its blown up in my face.
I've rambled but only post this because I've been where you are and can only say that the one good thing I did was stick with it here because the advice and help is the best you are ever likely to get
Hi Mark
Sorry about yesterday lost the plot. Trading can be such a hard thing especially when you finally think you have got a couple of systems that are doing well just to be hit badly with a terrible weekends set of results. My problem i have a gambling issue and when i have weekend like this i end up losing the plot and trying to retrieve the situation on other sports and as per usual these go wrong as well and double whammy bank gone.
I will spend the next couple of days evaluating the January results to see where i can improve , set up a maximum amount i can deposit/ and max daily losses as this will be the only way i will be able to control myself.
If i can't find anything that i can trade based on the results evaluation i will really struggle to know where to go from here perhaps i will have to follow some of the members filters for a time whilst i paper trade systems -
@Ryan Dont say that one of my mates is on the first team staff - he'll be getting the "tin tak" .. they've stalled a bit in recent years havent they.. maybe they will get the Cowleys back if this one doesn't work out.. talking of crap.. Liverpool ??? gone horribly wrong of late hasn't it
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Here's a random one posted for no other reason than its interesting.. looking at form of Championship Teams , League one and league two..
In the championship teams 12th and below over the last five games .. have won only ten games between them.. compared to 20 Plus in League one and two.
I feel a back against the crap team in a championship strategy coming on..
I like that idea, also throw Lincoln in there too! Went to watch them Saturday terrible!
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Lay Under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Quiet day tomorrow after today:
Lay Under 1.5:
1/2 today but still a very good weekend.
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@chris-king well put Chris
