The BTC Football Trading Thread

[A Former User]

@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@chris-osborne February will be getting the transfer window out off their system The premier league should be banned from screwing up the European Leagues by randomly picking up players from any team in Europe .. its not good for us trying to trade.. Sassuolo, Rennes, Sporting Lisbon, Benfica to mention just a few weakened by Premier League Magpies swooping in for nothing other than desperation and because they can ! .. it also makes the Premier League almost untradeable for me ..

How can Chelsea afford to do what they have done in January when most other teams haven’t spent anything £300m of spend is ridiculous with very little coming back.

Surely they have an FFP investigation looming.

[Mark Maguire]

@chris-osborne February will be getting the transfer window out off their system The premier league should be banned from screwing up the European Leagues by randomly picking up players from any team in Europe .. its not good for us trying to trade.. Sassuolo, Rennes, Sporting Lisbon, Benfica to mention just a few weakened by Premier League Magpies swooping in for nothing other than desperation and because they can ! .. it also makes the Premier League almost untradeable for me ..

[A Former User]

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Thank f**k January is over! Horrible month!

Leagues I like that are starting this month:

League of Ireland Premier Division
MLS

Seconded hopefully teams have got the world cup break out there system and we can get back to normality what ever that is

[Akiva Anderson]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@stuart-wallace-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

The questions that keep coming into my mind is.... are you all profitable?
Are you all pro?

Not consistently yet no. Break even but I see a change this year. Theoretically I'm very profitable. It's turning that into real money which I will do!

The answer is No then!

[Akiva Anderson]

Thank f**k January is over! Horrible month!

Leagues I like that are starting this month:

League of Ireland Premier Division
MLS

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

@stuart-wallace-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

The questions that keep coming into my mind is.... are you all profitable?
Are you all pro?

Not consistently yet no. Break even but I see a change this year. Theoretically I'm very profitable. It's turning that into real money which I will do!

[Mark Maguire]

@Martin I often do -- the "default" correct score on my model is 2-1 or 1-2, where it varies from that I'm dabbling correct score markets but very early days and didn't do that one tonight.

[Martin]

@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@Martin Hi Martin just had a look as it wasn't on my filters..

In terms of odds.. I think the draw should be more like 3.33 (its 3.6 at the moment)

Projected score on my model is 1-1

O2.5 Goals 52% (2.05)
01.5 Goals 76% (1.42)
FHG 78% (1.38)

Hibs favourites and should be slightly stronger favourites at 1.96 for me (versus 2.18) so value there.

On top of that stats wont account for Hibs buzzing after Aberdeen result ..or then Ross won 3-0 against Killie

On balance it probably becomes value a few minutes into the game? Those goals stats are in the red zone for me on an overs trade despite the teams scoring 9 goals between them in the last game.. so either they've turned a corner or will return to norm?

Wow should have backed the 1-1 on the correct score!

[Mark Maguire]

Lesson for the day avoid daft ideas about French games and stick to the plan .. dabbled in the Laval Dijon game and goal came just after I got out .. small red on that

As for the others;

Benfica away at Arouca

Its on my LTD filter. Will look at team news before final decision. my odds say the draw should be 3.45 so will at the very least wait for odds which are at 6 for the draw to come in before considering a trade.. if I miss out I miss out no harm done.

In after twenty minutes and greened up with goal on 25 will take the luck

O2.5

Karagumruk vs Besiktas (Split stake out after 60 mins if no goal)

Will also be FHG but won't go big stakes on it.

01.5

TNS vs Bala

[A Former User]

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Weird market on Laval Dijon .. 4 shots on target and odds out to 8.8 for 02.5 at HT

Annecy also 0-0 and at 8.6 for O2.5 and 3 SOT the league is low scoring generally must be a reason - this one on my LTD list bound to be 0-0

1-0 not a big win as laying to liability but they all add up.

[Akiva Anderson]

Also went for a SHG in the Newcastle v Southampton match. 2-1 at HT on the night (3-1 Agg)

[Akiva Anderson]

SHG in the Ross County v Hibernian match. 0-1 at HT!

[Mark Maguire]

@chris-osborne Not expecting a miracle but just felt value, fingers crossed for your LTD.. I'll wait until 60 mins and then get out only had a little nibble stakes wise on Laval game

[A Former User]

@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Weird market on Laval Dijon .. 4 shots on target and odds out to 8.8 for 02.5 at HT

Annecy also 0-0 and at 8.6 for O2.5 and 3 SOT the league is low scoring generally must be a reason - this one on my LTD list bound to be 0-0

[Mark Maguire]

Weird market on Laval Dijon .. 4 shots on target and odds out to 8.8 for 02.5 at HT

[Mark Maguire]

Purely based on value I've entered split stake on Laval vs Dijon .. odds of over 2.5 on my model are 1.97 and its now up to 3.9 ! Split stake and out after 60 mins if no goal.. warning the Dijon game may not be a mustard tip!

[A Former User]

@stuart-wallace-0

Yeah you can’t beat abit of Baz ball but I was referring to the ODI’s. I Should of structured that sentence differently haha

[A Former User]

@stuart-wallace-0

I think we will all get there matey… my thoughts are If you just keep banging on the door it’s got to fall of it’s hinges eventually. Betfair is simple but not always easy

I used to trade cricket but I go to a lot of the test matches in person ( in England ) so I get too emotionally involved and think England can’t get beat when Joe Root is playing but they definitely can

[Mark Maguire]

@Martin Hi Martin just had a look as it wasn't on my filters..

In terms of odds.. I think the draw should be more like 3.33 (its 3.6 at the moment)

Projected score on my model is 1-1

O2.5 Goals 52% (2.05)
01.5 Goals 76% (1.42)
FHG 78% (1.38)

Hibs favourites and should be slightly stronger favourites at 1.96 for me (versus 2.18) so value there.

On top of that stats wont account for Hibs buzzing after Aberdeen result ..or then Ross won 3-0 against Killie

On balance it probably becomes value a few minutes into the game? Those goals stats are in the red zone for me on an overs trade despite the teams scoring 9 goals between them in the last game.. so either they've turned a corner or will return to norm?