The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@james-everard Well said. That break will feel good hopefully. As @martin said on a recent podcast, breaks are necessary and slow days shouldn’t be frowned apon, use them for reflection and development, even if that means absolutely nothing trading related.
Busy days can come thick and fast and if they’re not great, it’s not much fun. I would say stick with it. Even if that means stripping everything back to paper trading one basic strategy because if this is something you want, never give up on it or yourself, because you can and will make something of it if that is the case. ‘Everything that’s good is on the other side of hard’ (Monty Williams, Phoenix Suns) I like my basketball). Don’t give up
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@matthew-harrison Well done mate. I will evaluate the trades tomorrow and Tuesday and then decide if anything is worth continue trading on.
Think it is best if i take a break for a few days now to clear my head and then decide whether to continue or not -
Good stuff mate. I've had a bit of a rough weekend also, but for different reasons. I had 5 games with 90+ minute goals that I didn't want to happen, but thankfully pulled my weekend around with todays games
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@matthew-harrison Yep both them matches
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@james-everard trading Gods can be horrible b*stards at times.. but if your long term numbers stack up you can laugh in their face mate
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@martin-walker good stuff.. out of interest for my Over 2.5 strategies its all about greening up after a goal.. I split stake at 0, 15, 35 and 45 minutes.. green up if there is a goal, and if there is no goal by 60 minutes I take the loss.. the last two stakes (35 mins and 45 mins) depend on inplay action.. again to emphasise my stats/filters look for early action.. so when I measure them I'm not looking for how many end up over 2.5 goals .. I don't care about that.. I just need a goal before 60 minutes if that makes sense?
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Just typically when i couldn't handle any more losses the last two late goal matches had goals in the 86th and 96th minutes you couldn't make it up lol
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@mark-maguire little experiment running my list through a similar style to yours today
LTD 17/18 94.4% greened up before 60mins
14/18 in the first half
16/18 88.8% went over 1.5
11/18 61.1% over 2.5Obviously only one day and tiny sample size but something for me to look at whilst second half goals are having a mare this month
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@james-everard they are not markets I have traded and generally only trade late goals following Keith on here.
How did you arrive at what to trade? What was the idea you wanted to test? My journey has been two years now and started with something I wanted to test.. I started with 02.5 goals and in simple terms felt that basing filters on previous match results was inaccurate. I've worked at football clubs and the common attitude of managers is/was (and I paraphrase) "I'm not p*ssed off with the strikers for not scoring because he's getting in the right areas, and we are getting chances".. My theory that developed from that was that the act of scoring the goal is random and is based partly on luck, partly on error and partly on elements of chance.. the goal keeper being out of place , a defender being out of place, striker being in the right place, it hitting his body at the right angle.. so without rambling I looked for stats which led to the ball being in the right place often enough in previous games for that bit of luck to happen.
My next step was to tailor that to how I wanted to trade .. in and out early.. so chances happening early.. it could equally be done for later in the game I guess.
Then when I started exploring stats, goal times etc it showed me the sweet spot for staking, brought in ELO's which led me to look at results related to them and my LTD .. then people like Keith inspired the 01.5 stuff...and then things that people like Keith say.. for inplay has been massive.. he talked a year ago about the principle of "space" in games and I've been considering it ever since in inplay decisions when I can.. its what got me to be too greedy at Marseille last night .. but id make the same decision again because it was right even though it went wrong!
The point I'm making is that I had a theory .. I've screwed up more times than I care to mention on the journey and a key final part was the mental part.. I had to listen to trading in the zone twice for it to inbed in my brain.. I still consider myself a rooky.. but I had a sound base which I tested, explored, developed and pretty much every month a new idea comes up which I follow down a new burrow and often find a dead end but that testing and reviewing and looking at what the stats tell me has been invaluable to me.. equally some other people have a character that need to be more spontaneous .. every time I've tried that way its blown up in my face.
I've rambled but only post this because I've been where you are and can only say that the one good thing I did was stick with it here because the advice and help is the best you are ever likely to get
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@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mark-maguire Laying the underdog and the late goals . Lost a fortune on the late goal this weekend i just dont understand how it can turn that badly nearly every match lost
Impact of the world cup can not be under estimated been brutal for alot of strategies this month hopefully things start to settle down soon
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@james-everard late goals on all my filters have been terrible lately and today there have been a lot of early shgs. dont give up yet mate its been an iffy month all round
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@mark-maguire Laying the underdog and the late goals . Lost a fortune on the late goal this weekend i just dont understand how it can turn that badly nearly every match lost
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@james-everard sorry to hear you've had a bad one and certainly hope me posting suggestions and the results of them doesn't make it more negative. Out of interest what filters are you trading?
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Good Day .. that will do me
LTD
Legia vs Korona
Fenerbahce vs Kasımpasa
Waregem vs Club Bruge
Genk vs Seraing (odds a bit long at present )All will be 01.5
Also 01.5
Slavia Prague vs Jablonec
Dundee Utd vs CelticFHG
Genk vs Seraing
Slavia Prague also FHGLucky you i have had a disastrous weekend most of the profit blown for the month don't know where to go from here. I should never have signed up for another year should have done 30 days to see if i was in the right direction at the end of Jan which appears again not to be.
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Good Day .. that will do me
LTD
Legia vs Korona
Fenerbahce vs Kasımpasa
Waregem vs Club Bruge
Genk vs Seraing (odds a bit long at present )All will be 01.5
Also 01.5
Slavia Prague vs Jablonec
Dundee Utd vs CelticFHG
Genk vs Seraing
Slavia Prague also FHG -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Going for a SHG in the Waregem v Club Brugge match. 1-2 at HT
First trade today too, ffs. Mingolet time wasting all the second half and 4 minutes injury time, despite the substitutions too. Hate f*****g time wasting
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Has anyone been getting the daily football email? I haven't been getting it for the past 3 days just wondered if had actually gone out or not?
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@martin-walker no problem mate .. tracking first and second goal time. total goals and result has been everything to me in refining my strategies. .. so for example over the last 400 plus fixtures on LTD .. 90% have seen a goal scored between 0 and 65 minutes.. that makes it rip for an 01.5 or Lay under 1.5 trade .. depending on odds I often lay U1.5 because I am confident enough in the stats. Thats an identical per centage to my O1.5 filter which has a strike rate over the last 220 games of over 90% (I tweaked it 220 games ago which is why Im measuring that number. But this is still a "young filter - 600 games in total) compared to my 02.5's so I still consider it early days
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Going for a SHG in the Waregem v Club Brugge match. 1-2 at HT
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...
