The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Will do Over 1.5 Goals tonight in:
17:45 - AS Eupen v Genk
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Ah ok so paper trading? Hopefully feb continues the same!
More of a 50/50 approach. I made actual 13%. The the 50% papertraded + 50% actual would have been closer to 50%
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Plenty of football. Tonight could be busy!
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@martin I have the data for this too, from 60 mins 72-75% (currently 72%). From 70 mins 59-63% (currently 59%).
I found it frustrating as would often not get matched at odds required as the selections are very short goals odds a lot of the time, and knowing the goals were coming early made me think about the opposite approach if you like.
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@chris-king what about backing at 60-70 even if a goal was scored earlier in the half?
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@richard-latimer Ah ok so paper trading? Hopefully feb continues the same!
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Just wondering different ways people trade the second half goal. I’ve been using a filter that strikes 83-86% over the past year so begun to use small stakes. The World Cup/past couple months haven’t been great so it’s lead me to alter my approach.
I used to wait for 60/70 mins late goal but the majority of goals come earlier in the half so it makes sense to be in from HT so to take advantage of this began laying under 0.5 goals HT then trading out if no goal on the stroke of 81 minutes for a loss.
Back testing the profit and loss on this using average odds; Entry 6.5 and exit 1.8 I’d have been in a nice profit (Entry odds are often lower). This approach has been as high at 74% which lead to my decision. 70-71% should also work. It’s currently at 68%
December and January made me think more about it. About changing it (I’m telling myself not to make any significant changes based on over a years data from the filter), but rather changing my approach again, however i don’t want to flit about from entry strategy to entry strategy.
I do want to be in at HT as early second half is where the goals have always come. This seems like a no-brainier to me, however the losses on laying under 0.5 at half time are heavy if the strike rate falters which it has.
I’m thinking of laying under 1.5 goals at HT as this means i can designate exactly what i am prepared to loose plus there is opportunity to put more ‘upside’ profit wise on the trade if the odds are below 2.0, or split staking as the odds continue to drop below 2.0 as the match approaches 81’. The earlier the goal, the better return potentially. If I’m getting out on 81 mins I’m only loosing my pre determined loss but I’ll always cover the time frame where goals are mostly scored.
Is this an approach anyone else takes?
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
The questions that keep coming into my mind is.... are you all profitable?
Are you all pro?Not consistently yet no. Break even but I see a change this year. Theoretically I'm very profitable. It's turning that into real money which I will do!
I’m not sure you can be theoretically profitable - unless the bank takes the deposits in the form of theory
The data is profitable. I'm not....yet.....but I've been edging closer and closer for a while now.
Jan was almost 13% and given most were glad to see the back this adds to my confidence.
Need to follow it up with a good Feb!!
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im half a point down doing 2 strats in jan and i think considering what others have said thats a good month. Bye bye Jan you will not be missed
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@chris-osborne as a chelsea fan chris i have no idea how they can do it, city seem to so maybe they are repliafting that model? but yeah i think FFP is looming as we wont make CL qualifaction this year IMO
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A few on the filters today but some caution required and waiting for odds to come right but amongst them (will green up in most cases where a goal goes in my favour):
LTD
Eupen vs Genk
Lille vs Clermont
Monaco vs AuxerreEupen and Monaco will be 01.5
Other 01.5
Celtic vs Livingston
Hearts vs Rangers02.5 Split stake Out after 60 mins regardless..
Toulouse vs Troyes
FHG
Toulouse vs Troyes
Celtic vs Livingstone
Club Brugge U23 vs OosterzonenAlways a little nervous of continuing to post these as at some point reds come along and feel responsible .. but makes me select so feels like decent discipline .
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-rome is that the Price of Football podcast?
thats the one decent listen
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
The questions that keep coming into my mind is.... are you all profitable?
Are you all pro?Not consistently yet no. Break even but I see a change this year. Theoretically I'm very profitable. It's turning that into real money which I will do!
I’m not sure you can be theoretically profitable - unless the bank takes the deposits in the form of theory
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@james-rome is that the Price of Football podcast?
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne February will be getting the transfer window out off their system
The premier league should be banned from screwing up the European Leagues by randomly picking up players from any team in Europe .. its not good for us trying to trade.. Sassuolo, Rennes, Sporting Lisbon, Benfica to mention just a few weakened by Premier League Magpies swooping in for nothing other than desperation and because they can ! 
.. it also makes the Premier League almost untradeable for me ..How can Chelsea afford to do what they have done in January when most other teams haven’t spent anything £300m of spend is ridiculous with very little coming back.
Surely they have an FFP investigation looming.
FFP is a load of shite and everyone knows it.
FFP is only there to stop other clubs from muscling in on what the greedy six consider theirs. The fact it's got "fair" in the name is laughable
Correct. All the sponsors want the big marketing teams, which is why they're never really banned from European competition. They often get a hefty fine instead...meaning they end up spending money.
I remember someone talking about it years ago. The rules at the time (probably all changed again) was to do with % of income / turnover. It meant Real Madrid could spend £250 million without punishment, while a club like Anderlecht could only spend £15 million.
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne February will be getting the transfer window out off their system
The premier league should be banned from screwing up the European Leagues by randomly picking up players from any team in Europe .. its not good for us trying to trade.. Sassuolo, Rennes, Sporting Lisbon, Benfica to mention just a few weakened by Premier League Magpies swooping in for nothing other than desperation and because they can ! .. it also makes the Premier League almost untradeable for me ..How can Chelsea afford to do what they have done in January when most other teams haven’t spent anything £300m of spend is ridiculous with very little coming back.
Surely they have an FFP investigation looming.
they giving the players mad long contracts to spread the payment over loads of years. So that lad they signed on 8 year contract the 80mill is spread over that time so on the books its only 10mill a year and if they sell him it gets stopped. Its mental but accountants just mange the books so good podcast on it
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
The questions that keep coming into my mind is.... are you all profitable?
Are you all pro?Not consistently yet no. Break even but I see a change this year. Theoretically I'm very profitable. It's turning that into real money which I will do!
The answer is No then!
Alright Mr doom monger
I have supreme confidence I'm on the right track. Have done for months. It's just taking longer than I hoped.
Just being realistic. Heard all the above before, so have you! We're in the results business
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne February will be getting the transfer window out off their system
The premier league should be banned from screwing up the European Leagues by randomly picking up players from any team in Europe .. its not good for us trying to trade.. Sassuolo, Rennes, Sporting Lisbon, Benfica to mention just a few weakened by Premier League Magpies swooping in for nothing other than desperation and because they can ! .. it also makes the Premier League almost untradeable for me ..How can Chelsea afford to do what they have done in January when most other teams haven’t spent anything £300m of spend is ridiculous with very little coming back.
Surely they have an FFP investigation looming.
FFP is a load of shite and everyone knows it.
FFP is only there to stop other clubs from muscling in on what the greedy six consider theirs. The fact it's got "fair" in the name is laughable
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
The questions that keep coming into my mind is.... are you all profitable?
Are you all pro?Not consistently yet no. Break even but I see a change this year. Theoretically I'm very profitable. It's turning that into real money which I will do!
The answer is No then!
Alright Mr doom monger
I have supreme confidence I'm on the right track. Have done for months. It's just taking longer than I hoped.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne February will be getting the transfer window out off their system
The premier league should be banned from screwing up the European Leagues by randomly picking up players from any team in Europe .. its not good for us trying to trade.. Sassuolo, Rennes, Sporting Lisbon, Benfica to mention just a few weakened by Premier League Magpies swooping in for nothing other than desperation and because they can ! .. it also makes the Premier League almost untradeable for me ..How can Chelsea afford to do what they have done in January when most other teams haven’t spent anything £300m of spend is ridiculous with very little coming back.
Surely they have an FFP investigation looming.
FFP is a load of shite and everyone knows it.
