The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Thing is there are only so many titles and cups to challenge for. At the end of the day one of the super rich billionnaires is going to miss out. They can't all win. In essence the more City's and Newcastles there are the less the money will even be a factor.
Each and every team will be like the Harlem Globetrotters haha!
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Talksport has been great today surrounding this newcastle takeover, if this goes through how long before they are back challenging the top 6? Gonna be a great Football Manager save to play
it just feels like the city takeover all over again and these guys make city owners look poor. Wonder how much this will affect the premier league in the next 5 years if it goes through, newcastle fans must be loving it, remember when city signed robinho and the craze it caused -
@martin sorry my last post got cut off, I've added what I wanted to say! I'm more than happy to share any further information, however this was a filter I stumbled across more by accident than anything. I would like to test it completely new and see how it does and what impact fans have.
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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I would love to be good at understand but it always makes me a nervous wreck every time the team goes near the goal lol
I prefer the excitement of a goal, that says a lot about me being an optimistic person though!
I'm a Crystal Palace fan, it doesn't come naturally to be excited about goals!
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@martin reasonably well. As mentioned in my post, it does take a lot of research and match reading whereas I've tried to focus more on set and forget strategies right now. It's also one that I feel can be swayed by emotion if you're not fully prepared.
My filter is
- Betfair Odds between 1.9 and 2.7,
- Ov. Goals Scored per Match H1 Ave (greater or equal) 1.1
- Ov. Goals 0-10 minutes (greater or equal) 10%
My strategy is to enter just after KO as prices tend to dive and recover just before. Full stake entered and look to exit and either 20 minutes or 4x 10 incremental ticks. This often returns 20-25% of stake.
If 1 goal is scored, walk away and let it run until HT and exit for a scratch or small profit
If 2 goals are scored, walk away and let it run as a bet. You'll be surprised how many games are 2-0 at HT and finish that way.
I also find walking away prevents me from making emotional decisions.I was trading this last season and got 87% SR, however I haven't tested this with fans back. As mentioned, it's quite time consuming so once I've finished with my studying (hopefully this November) then I'll definitely look to get back into this properly.
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@nick-allan I've traded unders and I would definitely recommend using a filter to find low scoring first 20 minutes (or whenever you plan to exit) and then do further research. See when the teams often score first, for example I remember last season Arsenal would score or concede within 5 minutes but most of their HT scores were 1-0.
You also have to be really defensive and as soon as a game heats up be ready to exit or remove liability. As discussed before on here, it's better to avoid the losers than risk pushing for another winner. It's good for match reading and if you've played football you might appreciate what the teams are doing.
Finally, have every scenario covered. I don't think unders is successful if you exit for a loss every time a goal is scored. You need to think what will you do if there's no goals in 20 minutes (staggered exit as Alan said), if 1 goal is scored after 5, 10, 15, 19 minutes! what will you do if you choose to stay in and 2 goals are scored? Sometimes it's worth keeping score of the odds at HT to see what impact your plan would have had.
Have you been doing well on the unders? I need to look more into them myself as pretty much all my filters are overs ones! Which criteria have you found useful for unders when making the filters?
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@nick-allan stats are down for the night. From all the info people have given whats your summary of the things youll plan going forward. Right now we dont really know fully your thesis for the strat other than exit at 20. What im meaning is since we all replied whats your thought process going forward and what are the changes you have already made? Then we can all help from there. Right now its a lot of different approaches all giving different takes so a focussed way that you like could help us guide you better.
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@liam-willis ah cheers laim
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@nick-allan there was a post earlier saying that there will possibly be a downtime
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is the site down?
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Finally, have every scenario covered. I don't think unders is successful if you exit for a loss every time a goal is scored. You need to think what will you do if there's no goals in 20 minutes (staggered exit as Alan said), if 1 goal is scored after 5, 10, 15, 19 minutes! what will you do if you choose to stay in and 2 goals are scored? Sometimes it's worth keeping score of the odds at HT to see what impact your plan would have had.
good point, have stayed in until 30 mins on some trades as there wasn't much attacking stats, thinking more and more that this cant be an automated strategy and has to be manual as there are a fair few moving parts
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
recommend using a filter to find low scoring first 20 minutes
how do you do this on the BTC filters?
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Id then look for either a heavy fav vs stubborn defence
can you use the software to ID suborn defences? i find the scored/conceeded section a little hard to understand?
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@stuart-capstick when you say Home scored average over 2 (for example) do you mean by full time?
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Looks like Newcastle take over May go through now
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@nick-allan I've traded unders and I would definitely recommend using a filter to find low scoring first 20 minutes (or whenever you plan to exit) and then do further research. See when the teams often score first, for example I remember last season Arsenal would score or concede within 5 minutes but most of their HT scores were 1-0.
You also have to be really defensive and as soon as a game heats up be ready to exit or remove liability. As discussed before on here, it's better to avoid the losers than risk pushing for another winner. It's good for match reading and if you've played football you might appreciate what the teams are doing.
Finally, have every scenario covered. I don't think unders is successful if you exit for a loss every time a goal is scored. You need to think what will you do if there's no goals in 20 minutes (staggered exit as Alan said), if 1 goal is scored after 5, 10, 15, 19 minutes! what will you do if you choose to stay in and 2 goals are scored? Sometimes it's worth keeping score of the odds at HT to see what impact your plan would have had.
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@nick-allan So you could either look at favs in the match odds market, a goal heavy stats team or you could look for poorly priced betfair odds. For example. Man city in the first 4 away games this season all of them have had 0 goals scored in the first half. All of the goals in those games came in the 2nd half. Pre match price on under 2.5 was above 1.80. So you could have locked in the profit. Also those games were against teams who are classed as "top 6". There are many ways to play these.
My first thought on this strat would be to find games with under 2.5 goals priced greater than 1.8 to back.
Id then have a filter telling me the FHG % or avg goals scored per H1. Id want these to be quite low.
Id then look for either a heavy fav vs stubborn defence like alan said or a game in which there are 2 high scoring teams who only show up in 2nd half. Wolves when they first joined came back up were a great example of this.There is no set input or stats off top of my head id nail down but think the suggestions we have all given should give you a good base to go and test further. Im a goals man like most of us on here and like the thrill of being right in predicting goals, i hate hoping no goals are scored. Hopefully the advice iv given will help. AND yes this strategy has legs but as iv said its one of the harder ones to get good at as its quite a frustrating one based on the risk of big losses to wins if a few goals hit you.
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Home scored average over 2 (for example)
Home average first goal time 20-30 mins
