The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Variance: A Short Story
So I've spent the last 3 or 4 months (even as far back as 7 months for some) testing a range of 8 strategies that provide what I believe is a comfortable range of risk/reward. I've adjusted all of the strategies slightly, usually to remove variables, rather than include more. It's a nice mix of back and lay, with a few of the members presets, plus a few of some of the early ones that were added in June/July last year that I've tested since. There's even a couple that I've made and tested too, thrown in the mix.
I have done a lot of work around analysing the last two years of data, using it to create the ideal stake size, based on doubling the largest recorded drawdowns and then applying it to the individual bank of each strategy. All a very easy and rewarding process with this software. ChatGPT has also been a game changer and allowed me to create some absolutely killer spreadsheets.
I wanted to wait until the end of March to go live with the new stakes just to make sure I had a full 2 years of data behind the project. The equity curve below, with all strategies combined shows a lovely profit of about 4000 points on flat stakes (all lays to a stake rather than liability), and looks even healthier when my new, adjusted stakes are applied.
Anyways, all loveliness aside, I finally went live with this new plan, two and a half weeks ago. As can be seen in the first pic, the first 14 days were stellar and it lulled me into thinking I'd cracked the code... I was 50% of the starting bank up and loving life. A few of the strategies were slightly over-performing, so I knew a correction was coming.... but wow....The last 3 days have definitely had me crashing back to earth...(Those damned Pace Lays!)
I just wanted to share for a laugh - variance and probability distribution are cruel mistresses and have planted my feet now firmly on the ground!
How is everyone getting on with their set and forget horse racing strats?
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@greg-mitchell thanks I thought that may be the case especially with such a high strike rate also. Will try some different angles see what I can come up with.
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@craig-vaulks Don't think this will work. It is fine for backtesting, but it is reliant on post race and in play historical values. So the BSP, this isn't known until after the race, and the In-Running price obviously wont happen until the race is in-play. If you ran this strategy as it is, you would never get any daily selections as both of these factors are unknown until the race is completed.
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@john-folan so I've had a play around with laying at short odds in play I think I've come across a possible strategy. I've only been using this software for a short while. So I don't know if this is something that could be used.
If you or someone else could take look at this and let me know if it's a good idea to start testing this one below, it looks like it has good potential on paper. I'm sure it could be improved by someone also. -
@john-folan im also looking into this, i've created a simple profitable strategy so far but it's only profitable if you exit the trade at around 15/20 seconds, adding a stop loss also improves it slightly. So it's more for manual trading I guess.
May look into a HDOB or TROB strats to see if there are any better alternatives.
I am also going to look into laying the pace horse as a alternative. My idea is looking for horses that typically lead near the end of the race but usually weaken so you could set the odds at say evens to lay in-play. A bit like laying the field but being more selective finding horses that usually run well but struggle to win.
Just an idea so far anyway. -
Trying to nail down a decent dobbing strategy.
Going for the old favourite of running 50% lower than bsp over a career which on the face of it shows a loss. Quite interesting as all the usual suspects (Caan Berry, Patternform IRTT, etc) push this as the go to starting point.
I’m investigating further but finding something this way is not really providing enough selections to make it worthwhile
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Hi Martin has the horse racing email been sent this morning, I've received the football, but not the horse racing. Thanks
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Hi folks, does anyone know how to pull the average odds from the software without doing it all manually?
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@emily-knowles Brill, thanks!!
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@emily-knowles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@stephen-beale I don't automate the scalping, I like to do it manually so I can decide which ladder looks best and change mid trade if needs be.
I didn't get on with Caan Berry, I got a refund on his course. I really like Peter Webb who runs Bet Angel. Here is a link to his free training https://online.betangelacademy.com/collections?page=3 (@Martin please delete if this isn't appropriate)
yeah i scalp manually too as it would be too complex to do in auto and i think emily is right you need to look at other horses and why they are drfiting and coming in in price. Lot of variables you need to keep an eye on and i dont think you can do that using auto. I use geeks toy and love that i got a life time license abiut a yr ago for £120. I dont really like BA ladders but its all preference isn it.
I must get back to scalping but its time issue, demanding job and a lot of stuff going on with football and horse startegies to keep me busy but it can be a viable revenue source, just takes practice and watching back your scalping trades to see what tyou are doing right or wrong using screen recordings
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@stephen-beale I don't automate the scalping, I like to do it manually so I can decide which ladder looks best and change mid trade if needs be.
I didn't get on with Caan Berry, I got a refund on his course. I really like Peter Webb who runs Bet Angel. Here is a link to his free training https://online.betangelacademy.com/collections?page=3 (@Martin please delete if this isn't appropriate)
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@stephen-beale said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@emily-knowles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I swing/scalp every pre-race racing market. I find it really fun and easy and so much less stressful than relying on a horse to win or lose!
@emily-knowles Oh wow, this sounds really interesting!! Do you have any guides or websites that you'd recommend to a beginner, pls?
i learnt to scalp via caan berry tutorials, he also has some good youtube clips you can check them out there
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@emily-knowles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I swing/scalp every pre-race racing market. I find it really fun and easy and so much less stressful than relying on a horse to win or lose!
@emily-knowles Oh wow, this sounds really interesting!! Do you have any guides or websites that you'd recommend to a beginner, pls?
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This post is deleted!
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@emily-knowles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan Nice idea to set and forget on another exchange, but that leads to the next problem, I can't automate that, only on Betfair.
I swing/scalp every pre-race racing market. I find it really fun and easy and so much less stressful than relying on a horse to win or lose!
are you automating scapling?
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@paul-foster Oh wow that sounds easy!
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@emily-knowles I would guess so. I use BFBM for automated and using the "sync with BFBM" I don't even need to upload the selections. Also, each of my strategies have their own bank set within the bot which none of the other bots offer.
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@paul-foster That could work, I think!
I could automate on Bet Angel and scalp on Fairbot?
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@emily-knowles what about different bots for automated trades and scalping?? I'm sure a few have mentioned before that thats what they do, maybe BFBM or Fairbot for automated and Bet Angel for scalping.
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@nick-allan Nice idea to set and forget on another exchange, but that leads to the next problem, I can't automate that, only on Betfair.
I swing/scalp every pre-race racing market. I find it really fun and easy and so much less stressful than relying on a horse to win or lose!
