The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

1.1 loss on the day

John Folan

Non runner has cut the odds on the 16:55 right down. I’m only looking at a 1.1 points loss today now. Good that they adjust your liability if this happens. They reduced my lay price to 1.23

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Official Odds On Lay

16:33 Worcester Uncaver @1.88. Utter pile of crap the last two times out. Not run much at all the last year. Straight fight between her and the second favourite.

Bleurgh. Second favourite just run out of steam

John Folan

@james-rome said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@mark-maguire

@mark-maguire said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan John - know nothing about the horses and unlikely to trade them for some considerable time but really appreciating your informed comments regarding the prices, an education on going and really interesting ! Thank you !

Agree i know a little bit about horses only from match betting. I have wanted to start trading horses thing has been helpful

It’s about working out what information is best for you. Some of the comments from Timeform and such like are designed to get you backing them when they are obviously priced too low on form DSLR, inrunning price performance.

John Folan

Official Odds On Lay

16:33 Worcester Uncaver @1.88. Utter pile of crap the last two times out. Not run much at all the last year. Straight fight between her and the second favourite.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Just laid the fave in the 16:05 at Navan. Great price and it’s a cavalry charge!

No joy but deffo worth it. Race was all over the show

John Folan

Just laid the fave in the 16:05 at Navan. Great price and it’s a cavalry charge!

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@mark-maguire

@mark-maguire said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan John - know nothing about the horses and unlikely to trade them for some considerable time but really appreciating your informed comments regarding the prices, an education on going and really interesting ! Thank you !

Agree i know a little bit about horses only from match betting. I have wanted to start trading horses thing has been helpful

John Folan

@mark-maguire said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan John - know nothing about the horses and unlikely to trade them for some considerable time but really appreciating your informed comments regarding the prices, an education on going and really interesting ! Thank you !

Good to hear it. Hopefully lots more learning to come for all of us with the new horse software.

Mark Maguire

@john-folan John - know nothing about the horses and unlikely to trade them for some considerable time but really appreciating your informed comments regarding the prices, an education on going and really interesting ! Thank you !

John Folan

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Sadly the second didn’t play ball. Still a nice profit though. These are very much a work in progress but they have done well so far. As usual in my trading the upside outweighs the down so I only need to be right about half the time.

Keep It Simple Stupid. (KISS) trading rules.

nice work on these!

Thanks. It was just an idea. So laying the top two(probably safest if on two’s/three’s. Gives a low liability lay of two horses. You need something in the 4/5 range for the third and or fourth favourite to provide a threat. This can probably be backtested on the horse software when I get my hands on it.

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@john-folan Cheers for these John !!!

Martin

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Sadly the second didn’t play ball. Still a nice profit though. These are very much a work in progress but they have done well so far. As usual in my trading the upside outweighs the down so I only need to be right about half the time.

Keep It Simple Stupid. (KISS) trading rules.

nice work on these!

John Folan

Odds on lays 20/10

16:55 Kempton Bashful @1.40. Those magic words “ran respectfully when 5th”. Never set the world on fire looking at previous results. Poor draw as well. Should be at twos or threes at the least.

14:40 Newmarket Al [email protected]. Run once and finished second so the usual market overreaction. Upped in trip so untested at distance. Up against some interesting untested horses. Would probably put this one at 3’s

John Folan

Sadly the second didn’t play ball. Still a nice profit though. These are very much a work in progress but they have done well so far. As usual in my trading the upside outweighs the down so I only need to be right about half the time.

Keep It Simple Stupid. (KISS) trading rules.

John Folan

First double lay in so guaranteed profit of 1.5 points on those. Half a point liability left on tonight’s one

John Folan

Just over a point Profit on the odds on lays

John Folan

Same in the 15:25 for just over a points liability

John Folan

Also laid first two favourites in 19:00 Kempton for just over half a point total liability

John Folan

Odds On Lays 19/10

13:00 Exeter Mick Pastor @1.41. Literally a two horse race. The second favourite has run in second numerous times. I am not turning down the price to lay.

13:55 Yarmouth Clitheroe @ 1.49.
5th in its last race and it is now odds on. Quite like the look of Favourite Child for this one.

14:30 Yarmouth Tarhib @1.09. I cannot turn this price down(Altior twice at this price ). Be interesting to see what effect the rain has on it.

14:15 Newcastle Dubai [email protected] Up against the Menstone Gem who he lost to at this c and d on the 27th. Couple of debut horses with interesting parents.

14:20 Gowran Park Sunset [email protected]. I get the impression he doesn’t like the wet. Ground good turn heavy. That makes this race a lottery.