The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

Poor today. But this happens on these. As I’ve mentioned a hundred times or so. Back tomorrow

John Folan

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Afternoon folks,

I've been sat at work thinking about horse racing and thought there must be a strategy surrounding laying favourites. I am specifically thinking about laying odds on favourites...

However, before I delve deep into research and paper trading, have any of you done this already? May save me months of testing!

Otherwise, on my day off tomorrow I shall begin!

Thanks folks.

Read my daily posts . Glad to see there is a like minded person on here. Hold off on paper trading though. Horse software is in beta next week and it has back testing.

In the meantime in my bio is a link to my horse racing resources. Adrian Massey has done a bucket load of research into this. You can also produce custom reports off his site. Bit fiddly but interesting stats.

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Afternoon folks,

I've been sat at work thinking about horse racing and thought there must be a strategy surrounding laying favourites. I am specifically thinking about laying odds on favourites...

However, before I delve deep into research and paper trading, have any of you done this already? May save me months of testing!

Otherwise, on my day off tomorrow I shall begin!

Thanks folks.

John Folan

Sadly the going took care of any potential trobs. Going to have another look at the Irish racing as it’s heavy at both courses there.

James Woodroffe

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan hey mate do you trade the Melbourne Cup carnival by any chance?

No I normally stay away from big competitions for trading. Except for scalping. It’s a scalpers paradise

Fair enough mate.

John Folan

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan hey mate do you trade the Melbourne Cup carnival by any chance?

No I normally stay away from big competitions for trading. Except for scalping. It’s a scalpers paradise

James Woodroffe

@john-folan hey mate do you trade the Melbourne Cup carnival by any chance?

Angus Macleod

Just had a massive slow moment there, was looking at 25/10 and thinking "how on earth is that odds on?!"

Then I realised it was the date

I'm putting the keyboard down now before I hurt myself

John Folan

Odds On Favourite Lays 25/10

15:15 Redcar. Forever Forward. Make up your mind if he is a hurdler or not. Not won a race. Blinkers on for the first time. More inclined to look at Bad Rabbit. Probably needs a non runner to drop it to odds on.

13:20 Ayr. The Player Queen. Not run a hurdles before. Not run since April and significantly up in trip. Easy to oppose at this cheap price.

14:15 Leicester. Tolstoy. Didn’t have to go much past it’s last three races to add this to the lay list.

18:00 Newcastle. Antarah. First ever race and it’s odds on favourite? Savvy Victory and Million Thanks both look like they will compete.

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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Utterly superb day today. Bit disappointing in the lack of trob selections lately but I know what works with those so will be patient. Bare with the odds on
lays as there will be a lot of losers. However there isn’t that much variance so never takes much to get back in front. I love a system but I really don’t have one for these. Please feel free to pull me up on my reasoning. Charles and Richard used to when they were active members and it made me a better trader. One week to go to the horse software beta!!

One week!!!!!

Brilliant!

John Folan

Utterly superb day today. Bit disappointing in the lack of trob selections lately but I know what works with those so will be patient. Bare with the odds on
lays as there will be a lot of losers. However there isn’t that much variance so never takes much to get back in front. I love a system but I really don’t have one for these. Please feel free to pull me up on my reasoning. Charles and Richard used to when they were active members and it made me a better trader. One week to go to the horse software beta!!

John Folan

@anthony-ariss said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

3:00 Wincanton. Donning. First time on the hurdles. Up against an LTO in Mr Allegro. Plus a pretty decent hurdler in Burristo If both of these are a non runner then this is a no bet.
14:10 Wincanton Shearer. Hugely up in trip and a switch in discipline. First time hurdler always worth opposing.
13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet. Was an LTO winner but six months ago and that was on the NHF. This is a hurdle and he is up against fitter horses with reasonable records.
14:00 Wexford Queens Brook. Competitive top 3. 11 month absence and no win for a year.
15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack. Terrible recent record. Six months off and a switch in discipline. Easy to oppose.

Great work again so far..........

3:00 Wincanton Sonning +0.5

14:10 Wincanton Shearer. +0.5

13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet +0.5

14:00 Wexford Queens Brook didn’t match

15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack.

Well chuffed with those. Would still oppose Fire Attack. 1.63 was the price I got.

I’ll keep plugging away at these. Be even more fun now the heavy ground starts to rear it’s head

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Odds On Lays 24/10

If I can’t get matched below 2.0 they are no bets

13:00 Wincanton. Donning. First time on the hurdles. Up against an LTO in Mr Allegro. Plus a pretty decent hurdler in Burristo If both of these are a non runner then this is a no bet.

14:10 Wincanton Shearer. Hugely up in trip and a switch in discipline. First time hurdler always worth opposing.

13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet. Was an LTO winner but six months ago and that was on the NHF. This is a hurdle and he is up against fitter horses with reasonable records.

14:00 Wexford Queens Brook. Competitive top 3. 11 month absence and no win for a year.

15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack. Terrible recent record. Six months off and a switch in discipline. Easy to oppose.

Not a bad days work with only fire attack letting me down. Queens Brook was a no bet. 2.25 poibts

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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

3:00 Wincanton. Donning. First time on the hurdles. Up against an LTO in Mr Allegro. Plus a pretty decent hurdler in Burristo If both of these are a non runner then this is a no bet.
14:10 Wincanton Shearer. Hugely up in trip and a switch in discipline. First time hurdler always worth opposing.
13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet. Was an LTO winner but six months ago and that was on the NHF. This is a hurdle and he is up against fitter horses with reasonable records.
14:00 Wexford Queens Brook. Competitive top 3. 11 month absence and no win for a year.
15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack. Terrible recent record. Six months off and a switch in discipline. Easy to oppose.

Great work again so far..........

3:00 Wincanton Sonning +0.5

14:10 Wincanton Shearer. +0.5

13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet +0.5

14:00 Wexford Queens Brook didn’t match

15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack.

John Folan

Odds On Lays 24/10

If I can’t get matched below 2.0 they are no bets

13:00 Wincanton. Donning. First time on the hurdles. Up against an LTO in Mr Allegro. Plus a pretty decent hurdler in Burristo If both of these are a non runner then this is a no bet.

14:10 Wincanton Shearer. Hugely up in trip and a switch in discipline. First time hurdler always worth opposing.

13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet. Was an LTO winner but six months ago and that was on the NHF. This is a hurdle and he is up against fitter horses with reasonable records.

14:00 Wexford Queens Brook. Competitive top 3. 11 month absence and no win for a year.

15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack. Terrible recent record. Six months off and a switch in discipline. Easy to oppose.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Odds On Lays 23/10

I will lay these just before the off. If they are not below 2.0 they are a no bet.

15:15 Doncaster Luxembourg. Highly competitive race. May not handle the soft ground having never run on it before.

16:59 Chelmsford Spirit Catcher. Under a penalty. Up against a very good horse in Windseeker. If Windseeker is a non runner this is no bet.

13:20 Galway Iberique Du Seuil. Significant increase in trip. So a question mark over stamina.

15:02 Galway Colonel Mustard. Not won for a year. Two highly competitive horses among the other runners. First run since April.

I didn’t do Iberique as it was over two.

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@john-folan

I did four of yours -
15:15 Doncaster Luxembourg.
16:59 Chelmsford Spirit Catcher.
13:20 Galway Iberique Du Seuil.
15:02 Galway Colonel Mustard.

actually ended 0.25 pts up

John Folan

Not been a single selection for the trobs for a while. They just need the jumps to bed in

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Additionally in the 16:40 Cheltenham Does He Know. Significantly up in trip and up against two decent opponents.

Done at the finish. Nuts. Losing day today no matter what happens at the end

Maybe I should stick to the AW. 1.5 down. This is not doing anything it hasn’t before.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Additionally in the 16:40 Cheltenham Does He Know. Significantly up in trip and up against two decent opponents.

Done at the finish. Nuts. Losing day today no matter what happens at the end