The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

Bit naff but these bounce around. 1.6 lost

John Folan

No trobs today. Oscar Nomination pulled up yesterday when travelling well. Shame really. One to watch tho

Odds On Lays 27/10

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.

12:55 Fakenham Grandeur Dame. Not run since February. Obvious challengers in Hermes Bellevue and Nine Nine Nine

13:55 Taunton Time To Tinker. Laying this one in honour of Richard Latimer… Also it’s up against Honneur Dajonc who won on the 13th October. Hasn’t run since March. This will be a no bet if Honneur Dajonc is a non runner.

16:40 Kempton Equitation Not great recent form and new to this surface. Actually been pretty awful this year.

John Folan

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan great work that!

Should average about 10% roi. Hopefully better next week onwards

Martin

@john-folan great work that!

John Folan

Odds ons
New York City +0.98
Go Dante No Bet Over 2.0
Washington No Bet Over 2.0
Stage Star -0.32
Metal Man 0.98

Days Return = 1.64 points

John Folan

A trob selection. 3.5-9 odds range as usual

John Folan

Odds On Lays 26/10

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.

13:55 Chepstow. Harry’s Star. First run since April. Significantly up in trip. Going may not suit

13:10 Curragh. New York City. Not great last time out on this course. Question mark over the going? Up against a couple of prospects that might cause problems

15:50 Catterick. Metal Man. Never won a race. Never run on soft ground. Fancy The Resdev Way for this one.

13:38 Bangor. Go Dante. Two very obvious challengers in the next two favourites. Anyones race.

14:13 Bangor. Washington. LTO Winner but up against three other LTO’s. One of whom actually won on hurdles. Again anyones race.

John Folan

Poor today. But this happens on these. As I’ve mentioned a hundred times or so. Back tomorrow

John Folan

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Afternoon folks,

I've been sat at work thinking about horse racing and thought there must be a strategy surrounding laying favourites. I am specifically thinking about laying odds on favourites...

However, before I delve deep into research and paper trading, have any of you done this already? May save me months of testing!

Otherwise, on my day off tomorrow I shall begin!

Thanks folks.

Read my daily posts . Glad to see there is a like minded person on here. Hold off on paper trading though. Horse software is in beta next week and it has back testing.

In the meantime in my bio is a link to my horse racing resources. Adrian Massey has done a bucket load of research into this. You can also produce custom reports off his site. Bit fiddly but interesting stats.

? Offline

Afternoon folks,

I've been sat at work thinking about horse racing and thought there must be a strategy surrounding laying favourites. I am specifically thinking about laying odds on favourites...

However, before I delve deep into research and paper trading, have any of you done this already? May save me months of testing!

Otherwise, on my day off tomorrow I shall begin!

Thanks folks.

John Folan

Sadly the going took care of any potential trobs. Going to have another look at the Irish racing as it’s heavy at both courses there.

James Woodroffe

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan hey mate do you trade the Melbourne Cup carnival by any chance?

No I normally stay away from big competitions for trading. Except for scalping. It’s a scalpers paradise

Fair enough mate.

John Folan

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan hey mate do you trade the Melbourne Cup carnival by any chance?

No I normally stay away from big competitions for trading. Except for scalping. It’s a scalpers paradise

James Woodroffe

@john-folan hey mate do you trade the Melbourne Cup carnival by any chance?

Angus Macleod

Just had a massive slow moment there, was looking at 25/10 and thinking "how on earth is that odds on?!"

Then I realised it was the date

I'm putting the keyboard down now before I hurt myself

John Folan

Odds On Favourite Lays 25/10

15:15 Redcar. Forever Forward. Make up your mind if he is a hurdler or not. Not won a race. Blinkers on for the first time. More inclined to look at Bad Rabbit. Probably needs a non runner to drop it to odds on.

13:20 Ayr. The Player Queen. Not run a hurdles before. Not run since April and significantly up in trip. Easy to oppose at this cheap price.

14:15 Leicester. Tolstoy. Didn’t have to go much past it’s last three races to add this to the lay list.

18:00 Newcastle. Antarah. First ever race and it’s odds on favourite? Savvy Victory and Million Thanks both look like they will compete.

? Offline

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Utterly superb day today. Bit disappointing in the lack of trob selections lately but I know what works with those so will be patient. Bare with the odds on
lays as there will be a lot of losers. However there isn’t that much variance so never takes much to get back in front. I love a system but I really don’t have one for these. Please feel free to pull me up on my reasoning. Charles and Richard used to when they were active members and it made me a better trader. One week to go to the horse software beta!!

One week!!!!!

Brilliant!

John Folan

Utterly superb day today. Bit disappointing in the lack of trob selections lately but I know what works with those so will be patient. Bare with the odds on
lays as there will be a lot of losers. However there isn’t that much variance so never takes much to get back in front. I love a system but I really don’t have one for these. Please feel free to pull me up on my reasoning. Charles and Richard used to when they were active members and it made me a better trader. One week to go to the horse software beta!!

John Folan

@anthony-ariss said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

3:00 Wincanton. Donning. First time on the hurdles. Up against an LTO in Mr Allegro. Plus a pretty decent hurdler in Burristo If both of these are a non runner then this is a no bet.
14:10 Wincanton Shearer. Hugely up in trip and a switch in discipline. First time hurdler always worth opposing.
13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet. Was an LTO winner but six months ago and that was on the NHF. This is a hurdle and he is up against fitter horses with reasonable records.
14:00 Wexford Queens Brook. Competitive top 3. 11 month absence and no win for a year.
15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack. Terrible recent record. Six months off and a switch in discipline. Easy to oppose.

Great work again so far..........

3:00 Wincanton Sonning +0.5

14:10 Wincanton Shearer. +0.5

13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet +0.5

14:00 Wexford Queens Brook didn’t match

15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack.

Well chuffed with those. Would still oppose Fire Attack. 1.63 was the price I got.

I’ll keep plugging away at these. Be even more fun now the heavy ground starts to rear it’s head

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Odds On Lays 24/10

If I can’t get matched below 2.0 they are no bets

13:00 Wincanton. Donning. First time on the hurdles. Up against an LTO in Mr Allegro. Plus a pretty decent hurdler in Burristo If both of these are a non runner then this is a no bet.

14:10 Wincanton Shearer. Hugely up in trip and a switch in discipline. First time hurdler always worth opposing.

13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet. Was an LTO winner but six months ago and that was on the NHF. This is a hurdle and he is up against fitter horses with reasonable records.

14:00 Wexford Queens Brook. Competitive top 3. 11 month absence and no win for a year.

15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack. Terrible recent record. Six months off and a switch in discipline. Easy to oppose.

Not a bad days work with only fire attack letting me down. Queens Brook was a no bet. 2.25 poibts