The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[John Folan]

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

This is getting ridiculous now

Match fixing?

Odds ons do not win this much. Mad variance. Still not a massive loss points wise since I started posting but still. Watch them all start losing Cheltenham week.

[A Former User]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

This is getting ridiculous now

Match fixing?

[John Folan]

This is getting ridiculous now

[John Folan]

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan mine didn't load maybe I did something wrong

I had a bit of trouble at first. Sometimes it just hangs.

[Martin]

@john-folan mine didn't load maybe I did something wrong

[John Folan]

Odds On Lays. 07/11

Nitemare run at the moment. Never seen so many odds on hit home.

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

14:10 Sandown. Chantry House. A very low priced lay. Up against a very smart hurdler in The Big Breakaway. Not a lot to really choose between them. The Big Breakaway could be slightly fitter as last run 28 days ago. Also gives away 6lb to his opponent which could make a difference over 3 miles.

14:30 Ffos Las. The Grand Visir. Odds on but not won a race. Has flicked back and forward between turf and hurdles as well.

12:10 Navan. Ginto. Substantial increase in trip. Hurdles bow. Way to short. 8 months off.

12:40 Navan. My Mate Mozzie. Way too short. Chemical Energy has a much better form history. Both prominent runners so this will be a straight fight between them. Including the favourite there are 4 LTO winners in this race who will all want a say.

As a note I got a good amount of this information off of the new race cards in the beta. I did double check it and it is accurate. They are going to make my life so much easier. Let’s hope for a much better day than yesterday.

[John Folan]

Today's Trob. Yesterdays seemed to run backwards for some reason. 3.5-9 odds range

[John Folan]

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan how long is it taking for you when you load the strategy results in the backtest?

Depends. Quite quickly sometimes and slow on others. When I’m putting anything with odds filters for example. I’ve had a couple where it’s just stuck on the loading strategy results. I’ve flagged it all to Adam.

[Martin]

@john-folan how long is it taking for you when you load the strategy results in the backtest?

[John Folan]

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan cheers, I mean more the numbers so there is a 0-12 on one of the pace filters and a 1-40, not sure what those mean.

Oh in the system builder? Not played with pace yet. I’ll have a nose later.

So many things to try out

[Martin]

@john-folan cheers, I mean more the numbers so there is a 0-12 on one of the pace filters and a 1-40, not sure what those mean.

[John Folan]

Watch how many go down Cheltenham week…

[John Folan]

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan I've never known a run like it. Horse accas landing everywhere today, horrible day for the bookies.

Every cloud!!! My heart bleeds. Mind you this happens. Then everyone starts backing and then mysteriously they start losing again.

[A Former User]

@John-Folan I've never known a run like it. Horse accas landing everywhere today, horrible day for the bookies.

[John Folan]

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan do you ever take field size into equation? For example, odds on in the 12:15 Naas. It's a maiden hurdle and there are 22 runners... lots that can go wrong in big fields. Not going against you, just curious about the thought process.

In this case Rachael is on board however!

Was deffo worth a lay. Didn’t come off but wasn’t too far off

If Knappers Hill gets turned over we'll all be out for steaks

Flipping mess today. Law of averages said at least one or two should have been turned over. Mad run of odds on favourites winning at the moment.

[A Former User]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan do you ever take field size into equation? For example, odds on in the 12:15 Naas. It's a maiden hurdle and there are 22 runners... lots that can go wrong in big fields. Not going against you, just curious about the thought process.

In this case Rachael is on board however!

Was deffo worth a lay. Didn’t come off but wasn’t too far off

If Knappers Hill gets turned over we'll all be out for steaks

[John Folan]

@martin Lay the field. AW Only. No odds filters on the favourite as it can't do that (yet). These are the settings and the results. Not too shabby

DISCLAIMER THESE FIGURES ARE FOR BETA PURPOSES ONLY. THEY HAVE BEEN BACKTESTED FOUR MONTHS AT MOST SO DO NOT USE THEM AS GOSPEL. This is just an example of what you will be able to do.

[John Folan]

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan do you ever take field size into equation? For example, odds on in the 12:15 Naas. It's a maiden hurdle and there are 22 runners... lots that can go wrong in big fields. Not going against you, just curious about the thought process.

In this case Rachael is on board however!

Was deffo worth a lay. Didn’t come off but wasn’t too far off

[John Folan]

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan yep! I need to work out what the pace things mean and then I can work on my back to lays as was having some good success with those

Here you go:
H - Held up (so near the back)
L - Led
P - Prominent (near the front)

The score Adam is giving them as well as how they have run in the last 10 races is for front running so you can easily identify regular front runners with higher scores and hold up types for lay to backs with 0 or close to. I look for H in the last three races for the lay to backs. He’s made my life so easy. I’m going to see if I can develop a system for them as set and forgets over the next few days in the system builder.

I’m going to see if I can work out how to do your lay the field as well in the system builder. I’ve got your parameters from what you asked Adam.

Have you got Kindle Unlimited? There is a book that’s free on there. (£15 to buy if you haven’t so worth getting a months KU for £8 instead). By Roger Kemp called Lay the Field. It’s got some interesting theories that Course, Distance and Runner Numbers are the most important variables.

We can back test the living daylights out of that .

[Martin]

@john-folan yep! I need to work out what the pace things mean and then I can work on my back to lays as was having some good success with those