The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Hiya
I was intrigued by the idea that big festivals (like Cheltenham) might have an effect on the results, so I did a little digging in the software
Here's what I did for Cheltenham;
I've filtered the 5 presets that Martin sends out by:
The 3 days of the festival itself
Festival Week
The week before the festival (when things are getting prepped) and,
The week after the festival (when ppl might be really hungover or something)The only pattern I can see in all this is that Back the C&D does quite well in the week of the festival, and not so well the week after (i.e. the week we're in now). But that's only based on 2 years of data.
You might be able to see some other pattern though
Important to say; some of my data might be wrong (it was really boring to do this and I started to fall asleep),
and I was using my own presets versions, which have been very slightly tweaked from the originalsAnyway, this is what I got.
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@martin I think there is logic behind it. It could just be luck but there is logical reasoning that you could apply. With the strategies we need our selections (based on historical stats) to trade within specific odds ranges. If the traders responsible for most of the volume are making hay on the festivals then that means less volume to determine the odds 'correctly' on other events.
Basically for our strategies (which are purely stats based and play the numbers over a sample size according to normal conditions) we need everything to be 'normal' to ensure the same conditions. If there is a major festival thats obvioualy not going to be the case.
I could be totally wrong but it seems reasonable.
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@matthew-sheehan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Martin it all racing. I decided to up my stakes a bit and then hit a losing streak on a few strategies, but it happens, I suppose. I've had plenty of losing streaks before. @John-Folan thanks I have just downloaded the book and will give it a read
that's good to know because I think massive festivals probably do have an effect on the other racing going on. I'm starting to think it's like leagues that carry on through an international break! Something to monitor moving forward
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@Martin it all racing. I decided to up my stakes a bit and then hit a losing streak on a few strategies, but it happens, I suppose. I've had plenty of losing streaks before. @John-Folan thanks I have just downloaded the book and will give it a read
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@david-milligan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan great book
It really is. Stopped me fiddling around with stuff after a few bad results. I can think of a couple of people who could do with a copy
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@john-folan great book
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@matthew-sheehan Chelt races in particular or all racing this week?
It wouldn’t sweat it too much. You can spend too long looking for reasons why stuff has a bad week. Used to drive me up the wall. Then I read a book called “Fooled by the Randomness”. Made me look at it all in a new light.
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@matthew-sheehan Chelt races in particular or all racing this week?
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I’ve had a great feb and March but as soon as Cheltenham came in, I’ve had a massive pasting. Hard to take but I’ve put it down to variance. stay hard bitches
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I’m about 4 points down this month on the short odd lays. Shame after last month but plenty of time for it to sort itself out.
Hopefully that's all by the end of the day, today has started badly as well.
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@jonathan-jones wonder if the big festivals distort the rest of racing, seems like they do, will be interesting to monitor moving forward
Yes I have found it a very topsy turvey week, mainstream has been great though!! End of week accounts could show a valuable insight for me as first time trading a festival.
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It had worked just after i posted. The criteria were similar so i was wondering how i could tell. One had Age Rank the other didnt and that suddenly showed in the list (but it hadnt before) so i knew it had changed over.
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I’m about 4 points down this month on the short odd lays. Shame after last month but plenty of time for it to sort itself out.
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@jonathan-jones daily qualifiers can take 24 hours to show after changing the filter I believe, check the upcoming qualifiers when you run the strategy instead for instant results.
Shouldn't take this long. The daily qualifiers runs roughly every 90 minutes currently and will pick up the latest active strategies each time it runs.
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@jonathan-jones I'll need to look into my results for the past couple of years but I'm pretty sure all the big racing events my strategies have struggled but I might be wrong.
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Well, thats been a totally crap week.
Incidentally i checked the historical data i have for my portfolio experiment and Cheltnam weeks in 2021 and 2022 were totally crap. Should of looked before hand really. Wont be trading over cheltnam next year for sure. -
@jonathan-jones daily qualifiers can take 24 hours to show after changing the filter I believe, check the upcoming qualifiers when you run the strategy instead for instant results.
