The BTC Horse Racing Thread
-
@fraser-cord said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Hello all traders. Looking for a bit of insight from those of you who have been trading for a while on the horses. Ive been trading in some form for 6 months now so have a rough idea (only 2-3 months on horses), but im becoming concerned with the current downswing (i know they happen but the extent of it).
I know the software is a guide and can never predict the future. But the short odds lays and back the fav have not had a profitable day now in close to 2 weeks (short odds lays is more than 2 weeks). I've checked the software and cant find a spell like this. Yes both were points up this month until then, but now are massively down. They say madness is keep doing the same thing but expect a different outcome. When do you start to become concerned. And as it happens, this totally coincided with my football strategy going from points up to down during the same period so the last 2 weeks have been shocking for my trading.
Any advice much appreciated
I’ve had bad spells like this before in my live trading. I’m 5 points down for the month (I was a few up at the start). Not bothered in the slightest.
-
Hello all traders. Looking for a bit of insight from those of you who have been trading for a while on the horses. Ive been trading in some form for 6 months now so have a rough idea (only 2-3 months on horses), but im becoming concerned with the current downswing (i know they happen but the extent of it).
I know the software is a guide and can never predict the future. But the short odds lays and back the fav have not had a profitable day now in close to 2 weeks (short odds lays is more than 2 weeks). I've checked the software and cant find a spell like this. Yes both were points up this month until then, but now are massively down. They say madness is keep doing the same thing but expect a different outcome. When do you start to become concerned. And as it happens, this totally coincided with my football strategy going from points up to down during the same period so the last 2 weeks have been shocking for my trading.
Any advice much appreciated
-
@david-milligan Oh yeah for sure! I was just intrigued by the idea because I joined BTC just as the WC was starting in Nov/Dec and we know what that did to the football presets
I think if there'd been a really obvious tanking of, say, both the back strategies in the week after the festival then that would have been kind of interesting
But even then, due to the sample size, there are no "patterns" to be seen here one way or the other (misuse of language from me in my original post). Essentially that spreadsheet is just a list of "a bunch of stuff that happened". It was really boring and fiddly to put it together though, so I didn't want to just chuck it in the bin lol
-
Referring to the previous discussion of "Fooled by Randomness" I'm tempted to say it's well within the realms of random fluctuation, I think we would need a much bigger sample to draw any meaningful conclusions from it!
-
Hiya
I was intrigued by the idea that big festivals (like Cheltenham) might have an effect on the results, so I did a little digging in the software
Here's what I did for Cheltenham;
I've filtered the 5 presets that Martin sends out by:
The 3 days of the festival itself
Festival Week
The week before the festival (when things are getting prepped) and,
The week after the festival (when ppl might be really hungover or something)The only pattern I can see in all this is that Back the C&D does quite well in the week of the festival, and not so well the week after (i.e. the week we're in now). But that's only based on 2 years of data.
You might be able to see some other pattern though
Important to say; some of my data might be wrong (it was really boring to do this and I started to fall asleep),
and I was using my own presets versions, which have been very slightly tweaked from the originalsAnyway, this is what I got.
-
@martin I think there is logic behind it. It could just be luck but there is logical reasoning that you could apply. With the strategies we need our selections (based on historical stats) to trade within specific odds ranges. If the traders responsible for most of the volume are making hay on the festivals then that means less volume to determine the odds 'correctly' on other events.
Basically for our strategies (which are purely stats based and play the numbers over a sample size according to normal conditions) we need everything to be 'normal' to ensure the same conditions. If there is a major festival thats obvioualy not going to be the case.
I could be totally wrong but it seems reasonable.
-
@matthew-sheehan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Martin it all racing. I decided to up my stakes a bit and then hit a losing streak on a few strategies, but it happens, I suppose. I've had plenty of losing streaks before. @John-Folan thanks I have just downloaded the book and will give it a read
that's good to know because I think massive festivals probably do have an effect on the other racing going on. I'm starting to think it's like leagues that carry on through an international break! Something to monitor moving forward
-
@Martin it all racing. I decided to up my stakes a bit and then hit a losing streak on a few strategies, but it happens, I suppose. I've had plenty of losing streaks before. @John-Folan thanks I have just downloaded the book and will give it a read
-
@david-milligan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan great book
It really is. Stopped me fiddling around with stuff after a few bad results. I can think of a couple of people who could do with a copy
. -
@john-folan great book
-
@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@matthew-sheehan Chelt races in particular or all racing this week?
It wouldn’t sweat it too much. You can spend too long looking for reasons why stuff has a bad week. Used to drive me up the wall. Then I read a book called “Fooled by the Randomness”. Made me look at it all in a new light.
-
@matthew-sheehan Chelt races in particular or all racing this week?
-
I’ve had a great feb and March but as soon as Cheltenham came in, I’ve had a massive pasting. Hard to take but I’ve put it down to variance. stay hard bitches
-
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I’m about 4 points down this month on the short odd lays. Shame after last month but plenty of time for it to sort itself out.
Hopefully that's all by the end of the day, today has started badly as well.
-
@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@jonathan-jones wonder if the big festivals distort the rest of racing, seems like they do, will be interesting to monitor moving forward
Yes I have found it a very topsy turvey week, mainstream has been great though!! End of week accounts could show a valuable insight for me as first time trading a festival.
-
It had worked just after i posted. The criteria were similar so i was wondering how i could tell. One had Age Rank the other didnt and that suddenly showed in the list (but it hadnt before) so i knew it had changed over.
-
I’m about 4 points down this month on the short odd lays. Shame after last month but plenty of time for it to sort itself out.
-
@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@jonathan-jones daily qualifiers can take 24 hours to show after changing the filter I believe, check the upcoming qualifiers when you run the strategy instead for instant results.
Shouldn't take this long. The daily qualifiers runs roughly every 90 minutes currently and will pick up the latest active strategies each time it runs.
