The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[Martin]

Not a great day for the naps lays yesterday -0.19pts on win and -1.59pts on place. Won't put these on the daily email yet!
Today's lays:
19:15 Curr TAURAN SHAMAN
12:30 Wolv GRIGGY
16:00 Wolv FINAL CHOICE
18:10 Curr GOLD MAZE

[A Former User]

@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

It's become clear that doing a general 'Dobbing' strategy using all M Johnston runners would not be successul. However, looking through the results (admittedly small sample) it appears that the horses who were successful - 80% are confirmed front runners (hard to explain but i have a database with horses running styles). So i think the following (more selective trading plan strategy will be successful.

I will selectively indentify M Johnston runners who are confirmed front runners and judging on the other runners in the race are likely to get an easy lead.
I have set up a strategy on BF Manager to place bets at BSP - with a hedge at 100%, 75% and 50%.  (to compare results)

I will post selections and results on the forum - if anybody has any suggestions / ideas feel free to get involved.

No qualifiers today!

[A Former User]

It's become clear that doing a general 'Dobbing' strategy using all M Johnston runners would not be successul. However, looking through the results (admittedly small sample) it appears that the horses who were successful - 80% are confirmed front runners (hard to explain but i have a database with horses running styles). So i think the following (more selective trading plan strategy will be successful.

I will selectively indentify M Johnston runners who are confirmed front runners and judging on the other runners in the race are likely to get an easy lead.
I have set up a strategy on BF Manager to place bets at BSP - with a hedge at 100%, 75% and 50%.  (to compare results)

I will post selections and results on the forum - if anybody has any suggestions / ideas feel free to get involved.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer This is very interesting Richard and thanks for sharing and explaining so clearly.

[Richard Latimer]

Fri inplay lays to track into the 2's

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Had a winner on the lays ruled out by betfairs down time. Only for data but annoying nonethless.

Beaten by a short head, I've decided to included it as so obv qualified.

So here are results after today. Looking at the system as a whole rather than the shitness of betfair so assuming the btn sh horse would have traded pretty damn low if it was able!!

S

These are all horses on winning warlock with a rosette placed by their name meaning they have ran well over the last 5. They are also all horses that have won no more than once during this time.

And for the 2nd lot these are all horses marked between 2*-5* on the career in running stats rather than just last 5. Again crucially no more than one win in the last 5 though.

This is a much more restricted criteria so way less selections.

Early days again but today has seen the price point of 2.56 strengthen claim as best for now. Less liability and only one horse ruled out so far. 2.24 the next best in terms of profit. A few horses ruled out but liability obv much better.

On the other selections it's still 2.8 as best but with 2.62 quite close.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Had a winner on the lays ruled out by betfairs down time. Only for data but annoying nonethless.

Beaten by a short head, I've decided to included it as so obv qualified.

[Richard Latimer]

Had a winner on the lays ruled out by betfairs down time. Only for data but annoying nonethless.

[Martin]

@alan-steward yeah quite a few get down to 1.81 and 2.04 but rarely reach 1.61

[A Former User]

@martin-futter What 1.61 rarely matches twice?

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer yeah using it fine here

weird

[Martin]

@alan-steward I'd be interested in your 6 f results! 1.81 and 2.04 seem to be good entries, 1.61 rarely matches from what i've seen

[Martin]

@richard-latimer yeah using it fine here

[A Former User]

@martin-futter Am still testing 6f to 1m inclusive

[Richard Latimer]

Anybody else able to get on timeform? Been down for ages here.

[Martin]

@alan-steward what distances are you testing? i'm testing the ones in the email already but they are limited to 7f now

[A Former User]

@martin-futter Hey Martin, was working on the allotment this afternoon and had one of those aha moments... As you know I'm running Bet Angel in simulation mode to see what the best odds are to get matched with LTF... Am running 1.81, 1.98 & 2.04, am running these 30 times each to see best average profit/loss.

Yes I realise it's simulation mode and may not be a true reflection of live mode, but it's not bad.

Then this afternoon I realised why not save a file in all 3 odds and then run simulation mode with different odds in the same races... Doh!!! Lol.

I can open Bet Angel 100 times under 1 licence!

Therefore I can test all 3 odds in the same races... Do you have any other odds you want testing?

[Martin]

profit on the lay the field today either 2 or 3 depending on your odds requested, 3 went below evens 2 went to 1.16. the first race was a write off thanks to betfair being down!

[Martin]

@alan-steward lay the place in the BSP option

[A Former User]

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Found place lays to BSP to most reliable but win and place were profitable last year.

Hi mate, fully understand laying a horse not to win but "place lays to BSP" ???

Cheers