The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Today's Nap Lays:
4pts up on the win yesterday -0.4pts on the place
13:30 Sand MANIGORDO
16:50 Sand THEATRO
14:50 Donc ALBEN SPIRIT
14:15 Donc MUNTADAB
15:25 Donc JOYFUL MISSION
16:20 Sand NELSON RIVERProfit on win and place today.
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Shorter post tonight as the more unrestricted of these selections is now showing itself to be pretty inconsisten and profit it actually better with less. Less is more, where have I hear that before haha!
This one definitely has legs. I'm sure of it.
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@dan-erridge yes they are, I tend to use Maria staking plan as a rule when laying anything, especially horses where prices can be quite high. i lay them yes but as with anything have a look at the strategy yourself and see if you like it, past performance is no guarantee and the racing here has only started back up. if they do well next couple of weeks will add them to the daily email.
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@martin-futter
Hi mate, are these just straight lays? and do you trade them yourself? if so is there a set price you go to?
Cheers Dan
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Three Mark Johnston selections today - all three expected to lead. Will be looking at a 'Dobbing' strategy of 100%, 75% and 50% - using BSP.
Gold Souk - 1.50pm Newbury
Monoski - 2.05pm Sandown
Maries Diamond - 3.35pm Newbury -
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An average day for my lays but still going strong and I've started to flesh out my spreadsheet with yields and s/r's haha!
On those ones the best lay price is now looking like the smallest @ 2.24. Not suure I fancy going any smaller but we'll see.
On the more restricted it's still such a high s/r that 2.8 remains the best lay price.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Not a great day for the naps lays yesterday -0.19pts on win and -1.59pts on place. Won't put these on the daily email yet!
Today's lays:
19:15 Curr TAURAN SHAMAN
12:30 Wolv GRIGGY
16:00 Wolv FINAL CHOICE
18:10 Curr GOLD MAZENice profit on these today mainly thanks to none of them winning a race!
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First winner with Marvel in the 12:30 trading at 1.12 before being beaten.
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@martin-futter
Good morning Martin what is the position on racing stats.? -
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@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
It's become clear that doing a general 'Dobbing' strategy using all M Johnston runners would not be successul. However, looking through the results (admittedly small sample) it appears that the horses who were successful - 80% are confirmed front runners (hard to explain but i have a database with horses running styles). So i think the following (more selective trading plan strategy will be successful.
I will selectively indentify M Johnston runners who are confirmed front runners and judging on the other runners in the race are likely to get an easy lead.
I have set up a strategy on BF Manager to place bets at BSP - with a hedge at 100%, 75% and 50%. (to compare results)I will post selections and results on the forum - if anybody has any suggestions / ideas feel free to get involved.
No qualifiers today!
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It's become clear that doing a general 'Dobbing' strategy using all M Johnston runners would not be successul. However, looking through the results (admittedly small sample) it appears that the horses who were successful - 80% are confirmed front runners (hard to explain but i have a database with horses running styles). So i think the following (more selective trading plan strategy will be successful.
I will selectively indentify M Johnston runners who are confirmed front runners and judging on the other runners in the race are likely to get an easy lead.
I have set up a strategy on BF Manager to place bets at BSP - with a hedge at 100%, 75% and 50%. (to compare results)I will post selections and results on the forum - if anybody has any suggestions / ideas feel free to get involved.
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@richard-latimer This is very interesting Richard and thanks for sharing and explaining so clearly.
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Fri inplay lays to track into the 2's
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Had a winner on the lays ruled out by betfairs down time. Only for data but annoying nonethless.
Beaten by a short head, I've decided to included it as so obv qualified.
So here are results after today. Looking at the system as a whole rather than the shitness of betfair so assuming the btn sh horse would have traded pretty damn low if it was able!!
SThese are all horses on winning warlock with a rosette placed by their name meaning they have ran well over the last 5. They are also all horses that have won no more than once during this time.
And for the 2nd lot these are all horses marked between 2*-5* on the career in running stats rather than just last 5. Again crucially no more than one win in the last 5 though.
This is a much more restricted criteria so way less selections.
Early days again but today has seen the price point of 2.56 strengthen claim as best for now. Less liability and only one horse ruled out so far. 2.24 the next best in terms of profit. A few horses ruled out but liability obv much better.
On the other selections it's still 2.8 as best but with 2.62 quite close.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Had a winner on the lays ruled out by betfairs down time. Only for data but annoying nonethless.
Beaten by a short head, I've decided to included it as so obv qualified.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=v8arsy1si4v0651ser69coa45&st=4r1o63le&dl=0
