The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Anyone else trading on the horse racing? The site seems to have frozen for me; not sure whether Betfair has crashed.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Time to start the naps table lays again. These did well from mid-May to mid-August last year, will be interesting to see how they do this year.
Found place lays to BSP to most reliable but win and place were profitable last year.
4.10 Newb Gold Wand
5.00 Yarm First Winter
5.30 Yarm You Owe Me
6.30 Yarm Craigburn
3.40 Newb Tenfold
3.30 Gowr Bucky Larson
5.40 Ling Bayar
3.20 Bev Stringybark Creek
8.30 Yarm Guvenor's Choice
7.15 Yarm Orczyremove Stringy as one of the profitable tipsters picked them
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-lillis apparently lay 1.01 is a profitable strategy long term the only issue is trying to get matched as lots of people put money in at that lay price
I Have heard that a few times but not something i've ever seriously considered. I suppose an alternative would be 1.02 / 1.03 but unsure whether would still be profitble at this range.
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Time to start the naps table lays again. These did well from mid-May to mid-August last year, will be interesting to see how they do this year.
Found place lays to BSP to most reliable but win and place were profitable last year.
4.10 Newb Gold Wand
5.00 Yarm First Winter
5.30 Yarm You Owe Me
6.30 Yarm Craigburn
3.40 Newb Tenfold
3.30 Gowr Bucky Larson
5.40 Ling Bayar
3.20 Bev Stringybark Creek
8.30 Yarm Guvenor's Choice
7.15 Yarm Orczy -
@richard-lillis apparently lay 1.01 is a profitable strategy long term the only issue is trying to get matched as lots of people put money in at that lay price
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@martin-futter One got beat on the line, trading at 1.01 - Ouch!!!
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@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Wednesday's Selections
Results
NR
BSP 5.2 / LOW 6.00
BSP 5.92 / LOW 1.35
BSP 4.57 / LOW 1.01
BSP 4.15 / LOW 3.7
BSP 3.84 / LOW 2.8
BSP 30.00 / LOW 30.00
BSP 5.81 / LOW 1.01nice couple of winners by the looks of it!
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Thursday's Selections.
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@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Wednesday's Selections
Results
NR
BSP 5.2 / LOW 6.00
BSP 5.92 / LOW 1.35
BSP 4.57 / LOW 1.01
BSP 4.15 / LOW 3.7
BSP 3.84 / LOW 2.8
BSP 30.00 / LOW 30.00
BSP 5.81 / LOW 1.01 -
Poentials inplay lays for Thursday:
I'm only tracking these at prsent but if I get to 100 selections on either and it's still good I'll probably take a leap of faith.
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Updating where I am on these winning warlock lays. Not looked at yield yet but experimenting with price points and the potential results can be seen here. Little more profit today with 2 winners and 1 loser on the one list and 2 winners, 0 losers on the other.
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After measuring UK races to date @ 6f, 7f & 1 mile, see results below;
6f @ 1.81 -1.05pts (5 races)
7f @ 1.81 -1.43pts (3 races)
1m @ 1.81 -2.44pts (3 races
All Lengths -4.92pts (11races)6f @ 1.91 -1.82pts (9races)
7f @ 1.91 -0.84pts (8 races)
1m @ 1.91 -7.74pts (13races)Will continue to collect data on 30 races @ 1.81 before moving onto 2.04
I appreciate the above isn't really enough data to measure accurately but I need to start somewhere
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Wednesday's Selections
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@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Tuesday's Selections - M Johnston
Results
BSP 10.5 / Low 4.4 IR
BSP 3.42 / Low 2.88 IR
BSP 11.5 / Low 8.6 IR
BSP 9.24 / Low 7.8 IR
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@Charles-Cartwright if you're around I took your advice tonight and had another look but without all the forecasts and averages. What's left blows everything I had been doing away so far.
If it was to continue like this......well excuse my french but F**k me sideways!!!
This is just removing any inplay prices that don't go uunder 3.0 but using same criteria as before. Today was 1 win and a dead heat which as I understand it is half loss so still small profit if entering under 3.0.
More strict criteria brings up the following. Better strike rate but less than half the selections. 1 more win today.
One things for sure I'm definitely tracking this for a bit now!
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In all honesty I'm tempted to just paper trade for the next few weeks until some form builds up as right now it seems nuts, rank outsiders winning by lengths and even the commentators themselves have said they aren't too sure at present.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@angus-macleod you might be right about the 1 milers!
They've been crap for me, noticed the 1445 got 2 matched but didn't go near that as it was a 5f then the 1515 would have had 2 matched but again I didn't trade that live. Very hit and miss this in my experience
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@angus-macleod you might be right about the 1 milers!
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@angus-macleod I'll give these a couple more weeks and then tweak if they don't profit
