The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@John-Folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Joseph-Henderson I compound at various levels depending on drawdown until I reach the max stake I want. Compounding via bot after each trade is the most efficient way to build a bank. Anyone who tells you otherwise is leading you up the garden path. It means there’s no nasty shocks if you have a downturn like you would if you did the old double your bank then double your stakes route. Much better for the old blood pressure.
How do you tend to decide the max stake you are comfortable with for a strategy? And how do you change your staking plan once you get to that desired stake?
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@Dan-MacKinnon I would have agreed with you up until last week, in fact I had it set up that way and was very much enjoying the compounding of my bank at breakneck speed! The problem is that your losses get exaggerated especially when there are a few in a row. For example, my bank was cut in half by those three or four losses last week staking at 1% with the ratchet enabled. I then took the ratchet off and a further loss only cost me 7% of my bank rather than another 15-20% that would have gone with ratchet enabled.
Each to their own, as your say if I had maybe been staking 0.5% it would have been manageable but I quite like that the losses stay in sync with the overall bank.
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@David-Milligan when is ratchet staking useful? I think it's good for LTBF because the losing runs are quite low. However, when they do happen it's good to keep the same stakes to recover quicker assuming you've staked appropriately in the first place
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@Joseph-Henderson Yea, it's a bit too aggressive I think. With a strategy like this where the S/R is high there's no need for it, especially with the liabilities getting high when flat staking. Not sure what situations would be a good fit for it.
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@David-Milligan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Joseph-Henderson I had these settings too for LBF but found I was staking up to 2% or more of bank after a few losses so I've removed the ratchet
Just been pondering, when would enabling ratchet be beneficial? Surely this would always be the case when you hit a bad run..
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@John-Folan 100%… I have generated the average odds for wins and losses for all the strategies I use for the last two years and complied them on a monthly breakdown.. it’s been amazingly helpful to track my actual results as I go forward against corresponding months from the last couple of years. It’s really helpful to know if a good/bad run is an outlier or just part of the random distribution. When the average odds broadly match those on the back testing, I feel much more secure when there is a rough patch..
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@John-Folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
The other thing I find incredibly useful is to keep an average odds figure. That way I can keep an eye on the probability to make sure it’s long term profitable.
This is in the next update which I will probably release tomorrow
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The other thing I find incredibly useful is to keep an average odds figure. That way I can keep an eye on the probability to make sure it’s long term profitable.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@Adam yes. I’ll send you an Asana. I think I tried to explain it before but I probably sounded like I was talking French.
Basically max drawdown expressed as a points value being the lowest point dropped to after a previous high.
So strategy hits 160 points as a high then drops 6 points, recovers 2 but then drops another 4 would have a max drawdown of 8 points.
Then after that it hits a high of 200. Drops 10, recovers 5 but drops another 10 to 185 would have a max drawdown of 15 points.
Probably a good idea to express it as a percentage as well as number of points. I find both really useful. Especially as a big number of points dropped after 6 months of running a strategy is a lot lower than if you had had the same drop after 1 week as (for example) a fifty point drop (with little recoveries and further drops)immediately is 50% of your 100 point bank but later on would only be 25% of your 200 point bank as the size increases if it’s a good strategy.
I’d never thought of using the percentage of bankroll as a max drawdown but I really like using it as an extra tool now.
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- In order to hit the correct Fav. Lay 0-1s in-play. You hit them 100% of the time.
- If you don't like taking big hits when laying, reduce the max lay price. LTBF with no filters is profitable, but do you want to lay 1000.0 shots? Well yes, they are profitable, but I wouldn't want to take a 1000.0 hit. I don't even take 20.0 hits. My max lay is much lower than that, as the risk/reward turns against you at certain prices, depending on the system. You set it to what your comfort zone is. It can always be adjusted later when your bank has grown.
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@Joseph-Henderson I usually setup my bot to trigger within 10 seconds of the off to try to avoid swings.
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@John-Folan @Jonathan-Jones Is there something we can add to / change in the software to make drawdown more useful?
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@Andy-Lucy probably best to ask on the fairbot thread: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3923/fairbot-automation-discussion
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@Neal-Simmonds working fine for me, there is a form you can use to report any issues: https://form.asana.com/?k=V4sICWddOgH3CMQ96g0XSA&d=1120854233877885
Are you using Google Chrome?
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@David-Milligan Good point. Also, sure I’ve seen this discussed before but with a bot for LTBF. How do you deal with the 10 min place bet time and the not selecting 1st or 2nd favourite? I guess it’s possible that a selection could be made then steam into 1st or 2nd fav before race off.
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Can anyone tell me, is there a specific thread regarding BTC Horse Racing Software 'Status' as in when you guys know its not working properly! Mine wont load the meetings today, its happened before but some of my strategies today require me to do some checking? So I click 'Horse Racing Stats' & Nothing loads I get a message saying Loading... Please wait.
I can click though it into the Strategy Builder and I can see my picks but racing page itself wont load!
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@Joseph-Henderson I had these settings too for LBF but found I was staking up to 2% or more of bank after a few losses so I've removed the ratchet
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@John-Folan Yes. I have my bot set to trade 1% of bank with ratchet system enabled.
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@Joseph-Henderson I compound at various levels depending on drawdown until I reach the max stake I want. Compounding via bot after each trade is the most efficient way to build a bank. Anyone who tells you otherwise is leading you up the garden path. It means there’s no nasty shocks if you have a downturn like you would if you did the old double your bank then double your stakes route. Much better for the old blood pressure.
