The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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I am used to runs like this. Everything I do comes good. I don’t need more than a 50% strike rate on anything I do.
Odds on favourite lays seem to go in phases where everything wins. Then it will do the opposite. The downside is much less than the upside so it always sorts itself. Annoying they have done this now. I’m not going to over analyse. Just keep doing what I know works.
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Crap day. Nothing unusual and it always sorts itself. On to tomorrow.
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A trob. Should hit the 3.5-9 odds range
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Odds on Lay 02/11
I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.
14:33 Lingfield. Howzak. Under a 6lb penalty after winning at Chelmsford 5 days ago. Looks a bit crap apart from that based on previous form.
14:25 Exeter. Threeunderthrufive. Straight fight between this and Ask A Honey Bee. Honest Vic no slouch either. Soft ground should have an impact too.
15:30 Newcastle Mutaraafeq. Never won a race. Has a reasonable rival in Silver Bubble. Up in trip. Not a lot screams a price as low as it has.
13:45 Fairyhouse. Three Stripe Life. Not turning down the chance to lay at that price. Sevenna Stat should feature. Not run since March. First time hurdler.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Only one matched yesterday for a small loss.
Odd On Lays 1/11
I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.
14:50 Laytown Thaleeq. Obviously had to lay at this course. Not good form and an obvious challenger in the shape of Business.
Struggling to find reasons to oppose todays other odds on favourites. Will look later once I’m into the Beta be interesting to see what it throws up stats wise.
Nowhere near odds on. No bet day
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@darri said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan beta is out, enjoy mate, be good to see what your thoughts are and what you find
Adams keeping us waiting until later. Reminds me of that old joke.
‘How do you keep an idiot in suspense?’
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@john-folan beta is out, enjoy mate, be good to see what your thoughts are and what you find
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Only one matched yesterday for a small loss.
Odd On Lays 1/11
I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.
14:50 Laytown Thaleeq. Obviously had to lay at this course. Not good form and an obvious challenger in the shape of Business.
Struggling to find reasons to oppose todays other odds on favourites. Will look later once I’m into the Beta be interesting to see what it throws up stats wise.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
No chance of any Trobs today. The going has knocked out the Irish courses and there was nothing in England.
However:
31/10 Odds On Lays
I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.
14:45 Naas Wuqood. The going is heavy at this course and that instantly turns every race into a lottery as trainers rightly protect the horse. Up against a couple of other decent prospects. Not run for six months.
16:05 Cork Agritime. Again the going could prove a problem. On paper it should win. But with such a low price it is worth taking on in the conditions.
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Odds on lays - Scratch
Dobs + 1 point
Trobs + 3 points
Wins + 8 points -
Dodged a bullet with the Baybridge drift before the off. The next time I am ‘initially going to leave one’ that is exactly what I will do.
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A few potential trobs today. 3.5-9 odds as usual. Going should be alright but keep an eye and abort if heavy ground
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30/10 Odds On Lays
I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.
15:25 Downroyal Envoi Allen. Looked like a world beater but now on a poor run of form. First run since April and obvious claims from second favourite.
16:35 Downroyal American Mike. First proper race. Second and third favourite look good prospects. Soft ground may cause problems.
15:33 Newmarket. Bay Bridge. Initially I was going to leave this one but I can’t ignore the second and third favourite. Also Desert Encounter is no slouch.
13:00 Musselburgh Arthurs Seat. Up against Minella Plus who is closing in on a win and looks fitter. Not run since earlier in the year.
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Small loss today. Done twice when they looked beat. Frustrating
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Glad I didn’t get matched on filistine. Drifted just before the off and still won. The market knows nothing!
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I'll be watching the going, but alright at Wetherby at the moment.
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That’s it. Rain. Lots of lovely rain. The going is going to be ruined over the next week. Perfect for laying
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Odds On Lays 29/10
I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.
13:20 Newmarket Filistine. Up against an LTO winner. Silent Speech looks a good prospect too. Not sure why this horse is the favourite.
13:10 Downroyal Hollow Games. Not run since last December. Switching from NHF to Hurdles. Won’t have it all his own way against a couple of decent hurdlers.
14:20 Downroyal Zanahiyr. Up against a cracking horse in Cask Mate who won LTO last month. Not run since May so may need a run.
16:35 Downroyal The Mediator. Always worth opposing a horse that’s odds on on its first run. Up against two other decent prospects.
19:00 Kempton Stubble Field. Very short for a horse that’s never won. First time on the AW. Up against a couple of decent looking prospects.
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@anthony-ariss said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
The heavy ground is knackering the trobs at the moment. Still at least I know not to do them on there. Protect the bank and all that.
cheers John again +1.6 profit on the ones I got matched on.
Great work again!
14:40 Stratford. Call of the Wild not matched
14:48 Lingfield. Modern News --0.4
13:20 Ffos Las. Zinc White not matched
17:30 Chelmsford. Dynamic Force +1.0
14:20 Clonmel. Guily Billy +1.0
Top man. I know a couple of people got matched on call of the wild. Modern News was run close so quite happy with that selection.
Zinc white drifted from evens to 4.76 and finished dead last lol
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
The heavy ground is knackering the trobs at the moment. Still at least I know not to do them on there. Protect the bank and all that.
cheers John again +1.6 profit on the ones I got matched on.
Great work again!
14:40 Stratford. Call of the Wild not matched
14:48 Lingfield. Modern News --0.4
13:20 Ffos Las. Zinc White not matched
17:30 Chelmsford. Dynamic Force +1.0
14:20 Clonmel. Guily Billy +1.0
