The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[John Folan]

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan do you ever take field size into equation? For example, odds on in the 12:15 Naas. It's a maiden hurdle and there are 22 runners... lots that can go wrong in big fields. Not going against you, just curious about the thought process.

In this case Rachael is on board however!

Was deffo worth a lay. Didn’t come off but wasn’t too far off

[John Folan]

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan yep! I need to work out what the pace things mean and then I can work on my back to lays as was having some good success with those

Here you go:
H - Held up (so near the back)
L - Led
P - Prominent (near the front)

The score Adam is giving them as well as how they have run in the last 10 races is for front running so you can easily identify regular front runners with higher scores and hold up types for lay to backs with 0 or close to. I look for H in the last three races for the lay to backs. He’s made my life so easy. I’m going to see if I can develop a system for them as set and forgets over the next few days in the system builder.

I’m going to see if I can work out how to do your lay the field as well in the system builder. I’ve got your parameters from what you asked Adam.

Have you got Kindle Unlimited? There is a book that’s free on there. (£15 to buy if you haven’t so worth getting a months KU for £8 instead). By Roger Kemp called Lay the Field. It’s got some interesting theories that Course, Distance and Runner Numbers are the most important variables.

We can back test the living daylights out of that .

[Martin]

@john-folan yep! I need to work out what the pace things mean and then I can work on my back to lays as was having some good success with those

[Martin]

@ste-0 this is the horse racing thread, good for reading up and checking the latest goings on!

[John Folan]

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan how are you finding the horse software? I've just started checking it out!

It’s going to completely change my trading. I managed to load my trobs in the strategy builder.

Pretty sure we can do lay the field in there. I know that’s a favourite of yours. I read your notes in bugherd as you can read mine.

Adams adding course and distance winners to the racecards along with trob and dob stats. There’s a picture below of what it will look like when he updates. He posted it in bugherd. So much good info. Built for trading rather than betting.

[Martin]

@john-folan how are you finding the horse software? I've just started checking it out!

[John Folan]

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan do you ever take field size into equation? For example, odds on in the 12:15 Naas. It's a maiden hurdle and there are 22 runners... lots that can go wrong in big fields. Not going against you, just curious about the thought process.

In this case Rachael is on board however!

Good spot mate. That one was at 2.4 earlier. So dropped in. I’m adding it to the list! I love large fields. Cavalry charge I like to call it. Please feel free to pull me up on anything. I need it .

[A Former User]

@John-Folan do you ever take field size into equation? For example, odds on in the 12:15 Naas. It's a maiden hurdle and there are 22 runners... lots that can go wrong in big fields. Not going against you, just curious about the thought process.

In this case Rachael is on board however!

[John Folan]

Couple of Trobs too. Both currently inside the 3.5-9 odds range.

[John Folan]

Odds On Lays 06/11

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

15:10 Doncaster Hebrides. 1/2 on after finishing 3rd in its first race? Quite like the look of the second favourite even if they didn’t run well on the all weather LTO

12:25 Kelso Mr Whittaker. This horse is way too short. The second favourite is only so high in price as it pulled up LTO. Third favourite is no slouch either and has Derek Fox on board(Grand National Winner).

13:15 Wincanton. Knappers Hill. There is no way I am passing up this price. 1/5 on. Kalyptra should give him a good run.

15:28 Chelmsford Nations Pride. 1.3 to lay? Yes please. Up in trip and it is Chelmsford where odds on favourites go to die.

16:15 Naas. Bellatior. Love an odds on who has never run a race. Second favourite there or there about.

A few very sort odds favourites today. Must say I prefer the really low odds stuff. Low liability and only need a couple to come in to profit.

LATE ADDITION
12:15 Naas. Uhtred. Not won since 2019 and the field is a cavalry charge. Off six months.

[John Folan]

Small loss. About 0.2 of a point. However look at it in the context of 3/5 over the last two days and you will see where I’m going with these. Even if I get a flat 50/100 right we are in the money. These are very low risk and quite boring. Although I do love watching the races, especially when a 1/3 shot loses.

[John Folan]

Odds On Lays 5/11

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

13:15 Fontwell. Nikap. Not great LTO. Up in trip. No run since early this year. The only other runner isn’t a million miles away.

14:50 Fontwell Imphal Big jump in trip. The tin miner looks a good prospect to challenge.

16:00 Newcastle. Desert Lime. 5th in its only race. Off 11 months. Burj Malinka an obvious challenger.

18:15 Dundalk Knocklane Lass. Up in trip. First time on AW. It’s also a cavalry charge.

[John Folan]

@mark-gorton said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Yep , jinxed the last one but a good result overall.

No such thing as a jinx!!

[A Former User]

@john-folan Yep , jinxed the last one but a good result overall.

[John Folan]

2/3 I’ll take that. Always worth opposing sub 1.5’s at Chelmsford as long term it’s profitable

[John Folan]

@mark-gorton said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan 2 out of 3....looking good

Ssssshhhh

[A Former User]

@john-folan 2 out of 3....looking good

[John Folan]

Been a crazy amount of odds ons winning lately. Someone who is a bookie has said the same thing to me. It will turn.

Odds On Lays 4/11

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

14:00 Newbury. Elle Est Belle. Up against two good other horses. Not run since April and not won for a year.

12:30 Ludlow. Rainyday Woman. Hurdling for the first time. Has needed a second wind op which suggests a problem. Not run since March.

17:55 Chelmsford. Howzak. Up in trip. Also under a double penalty. Seems better suited to five furlongs.

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Odds on lays 03/11/2021

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

13:40 Nottingham. Walk Of Stars. May be more suited to a longer distance. Like the second and third favourite has only run one race. Can’t judge form on that.

0.8 points lost.

[John Folan]

Odds on lays 03/11/2021

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

13:40 Nottingham. Walk Of Stars. May be more suited to a longer distance. Like the second and third favourite has only run one race. Can’t judge form on that.