The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@fraser-cord Yeah, that’s what I mean. The software says it’s seven but John has had a losing run of 12. I can only assume it’s because John doesn’t do Saturday’s with that strat, hence the longer losing run
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@lee-colvin Yeh i just ran the software from april 2021 after looking at todays bad news, software's longest losing run says 7, will be 8 tomorrow morning once it updates.
I guess you take the rough as long term this has to turn (surely), but man alive its been a hard few days.
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@karl-pick same, shocking end to jan, lucky im on low stakes
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@john-folan A losing run of 12 is quite a bit more than what the software states mate, it only says the longest losing run is seven. Is there perhaps a glitch somewhere maybe John?
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@john-folan ...BEEN a bad last 10 days after a good first 20 for me.
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@john-folan I've been looking back through my strategies and December and January have been the longest losing runs/ biggest downturns. I'm sure the abandoned races throws the figures out as there's fewer trades to swing it
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
Longest losing run I’ve had on these is 12 and my biggest drawdown is 17% of its bank. Heading that way again it would seem.
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I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@john-folan
If thats the lay at low odds strat in the presets i dont think 'laying the favourite' is actually how it works. Not how the backtester plays it anyway. If you look through all the individual results you will see a lot (and its way more than the odd one) of races where its placing 2 lays. Generally odds of over 2 when it does this but there are quite a lot of them. -
@john-folan @Lee-Colvin , just need to keep the fingers crossed. The data is clearly there, back to normal next moth please.
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@lee-colvin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan Six trades, six losers. Rough day indeed mate
Hopefully February is a better month as December and January have fallen. Obviously I went live with real money on December 1st which was then followed by the strategies only two losing months to date
I’ve live traded them since 26th April last year. They’ve been great apart from these two months. Convinced it’s the weather and the disrupted racing. Annoying but that’s trading.
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@john-folan Six trades, six losers. Rough day indeed mate
Hopefully February is a better month as December and January have fallen. Obviously I went live with real money on December 1st which was then followed by the strategies only two losing months to date
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
Tough on these lately. Don’t think the cold weather and intermittent racing has helped one bit
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
Man alive, today was an absolute stinker!!!
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Hi does anyone know how to access the Timeform 1-2-3 ratings for an upcoming days racing without manually looking at each individual race on Betfair? I also don't really want to pay to subscribe to Timeform as the info is free on Betfair.
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@paul-foster great on BFBM but not bet angel the bots not as effective that way
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@jonathan-jones i have 3 strats, johns short odds, back the fav, lay the beaten fav which doesn’t lay if selection is 1st or 2nd fav, i only have an issue with the last one as its lays a selection as opposed the race for the first 2. Yeah nothing inplay its all all pre-race
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@jonathan-jones No it makes sense. I've just gone through my monthly data to assess vs the software results. I know one of the strategies results because I've been using the same selections (although manually not via a bot so I will allow for some difference) and it's showing as a loss. Other profitable strategies have also been held back, which I assume is because bad days reduce the potential profit until the bank is restored, whereas the software or separate banks wouldn't show that.
You're right, if you get on a positive run it'll compound faster but the likelihood of that happening is reduced with multiple strategies
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@nick-allan this has been mentioned before by @John-Folan for things like number of runners. You can get some where the number of non-runners can bring a race into the criteria, for example.
John recommends having a qualifying selection and a results. The qualifying has all filters removed that may affect what qualifies (DSLR, number of runners) and let’s the bot sort the rest out.
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Do your strategies have stuff like 'favourite'? I am not sure this works on the recommendations. There are a few things that dont work on filters. Any rankings, anything with BSP, loads of stuff actually. It might look at he favourite position at the time the qualifiers are prepared which will almost certainly not be the same as when the bets are placed. I keep 2 versions of the filters just incase. One for the backtesting/strat creation and another thats stripped to the stuff that cant change which is what i have as the active filter.
EDIT~
I should also say DONT use anything thats determined in running. This software simply doesnt produce even remotely accurate backtest results if you do that. Lesson learned at a small cost.
