The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@john-folan I've been looking back through my strategies and December and January have been the longest losing runs/ biggest downturns. I'm sure the abandoned races throws the figures out as there's fewer trades to swing it
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
Longest losing run I’ve had on these is 12 and my biggest drawdown is 17% of its bank. Heading that way again it would seem.
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I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@john-folan
If thats the lay at low odds strat in the presets i dont think 'laying the favourite' is actually how it works. Not how the backtester plays it anyway. If you look through all the individual results you will see a lot (and its way more than the odd one) of races where its placing 2 lays. Generally odds of over 2 when it does this but there are quite a lot of them. -
@john-folan @Lee-Colvin , just need to keep the fingers crossed. The data is clearly there, back to normal next moth please.
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@lee-colvin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan Six trades, six losers. Rough day indeed mate
Hopefully February is a better month as December and January have fallen. Obviously I went live with real money on December 1st which was then followed by the strategies only two losing months to date
I’ve live traded them since 26th April last year. They’ve been great apart from these two months. Convinced it’s the weather and the disrupted racing. Annoying but that’s trading.
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@john-folan Six trades, six losers. Rough day indeed mate
Hopefully February is a better month as December and January have fallen. Obviously I went live with real money on December 1st which was then followed by the strategies only two losing months to date
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
Tough on these lately. Don’t think the cold weather and intermittent racing has helped one bit
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
Man alive, today was an absolute stinker!!!
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Hi does anyone know how to access the Timeform 1-2-3 ratings for an upcoming days racing without manually looking at each individual race on Betfair? I also don't really want to pay to subscribe to Timeform as the info is free on Betfair.
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@paul-foster great on BFBM but not bet angel the bots not as effective that way
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@jonathan-jones i have 3 strats, johns short odds, back the fav, lay the beaten fav which doesn’t lay if selection is 1st or 2nd fav, i only have an issue with the last one as its lays a selection as opposed the race for the first 2. Yeah nothing inplay its all all pre-race
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@jonathan-jones No it makes sense. I've just gone through my monthly data to assess vs the software results. I know one of the strategies results because I've been using the same selections (although manually not via a bot so I will allow for some difference) and it's showing as a loss. Other profitable strategies have also been held back, which I assume is because bad days reduce the potential profit until the bank is restored, whereas the software or separate banks wouldn't show that.
You're right, if you get on a positive run it'll compound faster but the likelihood of that happening is reduced with multiple strategies
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@nick-allan this has been mentioned before by @John-Folan for things like number of runners. You can get some where the number of non-runners can bring a race into the criteria, for example.
John recommends having a qualifying selection and a results. The qualifying has all filters removed that may affect what qualifies (DSLR, number of runners) and let’s the bot sort the rest out.
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Do your strategies have stuff like 'favourite'? I am not sure this works on the recommendations. There are a few things that dont work on filters. Any rankings, anything with BSP, loads of stuff actually. It might look at he favourite position at the time the qualifiers are prepared which will almost certainly not be the same as when the bets are placed. I keep 2 versions of the filters just incase. One for the backtesting/strat creation and another thats stripped to the stuff that cant change which is what i have as the active filter.
EDIT~
I should also say DONT use anything thats determined in running. This software simply doesnt produce even remotely accurate backtest results if you do that. Lesson learned at a small cost. -
So a bit of an odd question, what started doing the last sort of three months is recording the names of the horses the I trade in part of a strategy and then check that against the software to see if the two mirror up. Now there are some discrepancies which you would expect, but if there is upto a 10% margin of error I would place that strategy under the microscope to see if it's an issue………….. perhaps Betfair guardian software that I use. Its pointless back testing if the result to get are so different to the software. But one of the things I'm noticing on one strategy in particular which is the lay the beaten favourite strategy is that I'm getting selections that aren't even coming up on the daily qualifying filters in the morning but are showing on the software results. Now I do my selections in the morning before I go to work, I don't have anytime to check them throughout the day. I guess what I'm asking is do selections change (based on their selection criteria) throughout the day? does this make sense?
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@dan-mackinnon
At he moment its pretty basic. I just shoved the lot in a databse and did some grouping queries. So it wont account for horses that might have both a back and a lay on the same race (not sure how many of them there would actually be if any) but you can see exrented periods of 3 weeks or so where it goes up then comes down and the net result is pretty much standstill. THen though you will get a small run and the balance just takes off. As i said, i am going to do some further testing on it.Another thing is i havent accounted for intra day liabilities and drawdown etc so there is still quite a bit of work to do but might be worth throwing 50 quid at it (if you use software you can go below the min bet size).
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@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
A couple of weeks ago Martin did a video review on the strategies in the presets over December. It got me thinking. If you traded ALL of them would having the mix of backs and lays along with potentially different back selections on the same race etc smooth out the drawdowns?
So, downloaded all of the individual results for all of them to analyze race by race, day by day and month by month. Its a bit of a mixed bag really. Good points being you would have no losing months so far but rather than smoth out the drawdown it makes it much worse. Starting with a 100 bank and £1 even stakes the worse you would get from any of those individually is 13. something % (there is another around 12% too. Running them all together would give you over 25% drawdown. If you decided to compund at 1% you would have almost 38% drawdown. Not good. Though on the plus side if you did have £100 to throw at it then you would be around £1000 stakes in 5 months (guessing thats probably the max you could realistically expect to get on.
On a day by day basis:
Your biggest loss day would see you losing 31.55 points.
Your biggest winning day would see you winning 58.76 points
your average daily take would be 4.61 points.Just thought it was an interesting bit of work. Going to look into the strats a bit deeper and see if i can get optimised combinations for reduced drawdown etc.
not sure BA guaduan would be able to place all the trades, ive only got 3 stragies and it misses some, some results are quite different to the software results so real results could be skewed
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@jonathan-jones nice work. This is something I’ve been pondering but not sure how to really explore it. When I trade the strategies alone they are profitable. When I combine them I seem to just stand still
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A couple of weeks ago Martin did a video review on the strategies in the presets over December. It got me thinking. If you traded ALL of them would having the mix of backs and lays along with potentially different back selections on the same race etc smooth out the drawdowns?
So, downloaded all of the individual results for all of them to analyze race by race, day by day and month by month. Its a bit of a mixed bag really. Good points being you would have no losing months so far but rather than smoth out the drawdown it makes it much worse. Starting with a 100 bank and £1 even stakes the worse you would get from any of those individually is 13. something % (there is another around 12% too. Running them all together would give you over 25% drawdown. If you decided to compund at 1% you would have almost 38% drawdown. Not good. Though on the plus side if you did have £100 to throw at it then you would be around £1000 stakes in 5 months (guessing thats probably the max you could realistically expect to get on.
On a day by day basis:
Your biggest loss day would see you losing 31.55 points.
Your biggest winning day would see you winning 58.76 points
your average daily take would be 4.61 points.Just thought it was an interesting bit of work. Going to look into the strats a bit deeper and see if i can get optimised combinations for reduced drawdown etc.
