The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Can we chat stake size for a moment?
I currently run 8 strategies, with a total bankroll that was divided evenly into 8 sections.
In order to work out the individual stake size for each strategy, I used the same formula for each, resulting in each strategy having a different size stake.
The process I used to derive each stake size was to first work out the maximum drawdown percentage, taken from the whole data set over the last 2.5 years. I would then take this percentage and use it to calculate the highest monetary drawdown (based on £1.00 stakes). Taking this figure, I would then multiply it by 2 (essentially allowing the strategy to reach double the maximum recorded monetary drawdown before blowing the bank). I would then take the allocated section of the total bank (so in my case 1/8th of the overall total), and then divide it by the doubled figure, giving me my stake size.
In practice it would look like this (based on a hypothetical bank roll section of £200.00):
Lay the Beaten fav (with slight personal adjustments)
Bankroll: £200.00
Highest percentage drawdown (£200.00 bank, £1.00 stakes): -15.59%
Highest Monetary drawdown: -£53.40
Double the largest monetary drawdown: 53.40*2 = £106.80
Stake Size: 200/106.80 = £1.87My question is, given that I essentially just made this up, does it make logical sense? And secondly, what is everyone else doing to determine their stake sizes? I'm trying to manage all 8 strategies in a way that reduces the overall potential drawdown of the entire bank, so I'm interested in hearing how other people manage this.
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@Jonathan-Jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Gives you more time to come up with more strategies.
Or play the PS5
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Gives you more time to come up with more strategies.
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@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
As much as I'm enjoying automation for most of these member strategies they can be traded manually pretty easily, just a case of being on the pc at the time you want to trade.
You wait. You will be automating all of it.
.Automation is making me incredibly lazy.
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@Daniel-Mills cheers mate
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@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Back to lay dobs.gz
Just in case you (or anyone else) want the safety net on the dobs, this is how i've got mine running in BFBM.
I'm using the hedge position to trade out at 60% loss @ 4ticks below. Think the original software strat had a hedge at 70% loss. My reasoning is this should catch it better than setting it at 70% in BFBM, working so far.
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@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Big thanks to @John-Folan for helping me to set up BFBM and @Adam for creating the link between BTC and BFBM!
it's sick, isn't it. Saves so much time.
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Big thanks to @John-Folan for helping me to set up BFBM and @Adam for creating the link between BTC and BFBM!
Here is an Irish Dobs strategy I have created. It will need some forward testing:
Download to the strategy into BTC software here: irish dobs.json
Download the strategy to BFBM to automate it here: 1690570294729-irish-dob-1
.0.gzBack to lay: rules_export (3).json
BFBM: Back to lay dobs.gz
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Think so. Its just something i noticed when i was messing with it and thought that it was pretty interesting.
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@Joseph-Henderson said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Jonathan-Jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Dan-MacKinnon
What i noticed with BFBM is you can share a bank between strategies so there is scope for a combined approach depending on your strategies. Perhaps combine a couple of stable strats to share a bank and grow faster but keep some of the more bouncy ones on their own.Does show though that there is a lot more to think about then just winning bets. Bank management is a powerful tool.
Is that the tick box next to the “set new” button? Then you can select which strategy banks to combine?
Yes. It’s a useful feature that. I’ve got strategies on different sized banks at varying degrees of percentage of banks (2%, 1% and 0.5). I’ve done a dependent strategy in the past when I was tracking steamers. It worked ok.
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@Jonathan-Jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Dan-MacKinnon
What i noticed with BFBM is you can share a bank between strategies so there is scope for a combined approach depending on your strategies. Perhaps combine a couple of stable strats to share a bank and grow faster but keep some of the more bouncy ones on their own.Does show though that there is a lot more to think about then just winning bets. Bank management is a powerful tool.
Is that the tick box next to the “set new” button? Then you can select which strategy banks to combine?
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@Dan-MacKinnon
What i noticed with BFBM is you can share a bank between strategies so there is scope for a combined approach depending on your strategies. Perhaps combine a couple of stable strats to share a bank and grow faster but keep some of the more bouncy ones on their own.Does show though that there is a lot more to think about then just winning bets. Bank management is a powerful tool.
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@Caroline-Middlebrook said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Hey guys, I am trying to use BFBM to automate a strategy that is based on BSP. It's fine for a strategy where I don't have any limits on the price, but I have a lay strategy where I want to implement a maximum odds.
The betfair interface allows you to do this by clicking 'Set SP odds limit' which then gives you a field to input the minimum odds for back bets or maximum odds for lay bets, but I cannot get this to work in BFFM!
I have gone through this thread in their forum but it is still not working:
https://www.bfbotmanager.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?t=3243
Any ideas?
CAROLINE-Ask this question on the Horse Racing Strategies Megathread, they should be able to help!
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I messed about with excel and got it to compare a combined approach. It's definitely more risky but could be a decent bank builder. It appears to be simply compounding, but when it's combined it compounds at a greater rate due to the volume of trades.
I think there's good and bad to both. What you're potentially losing by not combining you should make up with longevity.
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@Martin Currently doing Back The Fav, LTBF and Lay Third Fav on horses. Then Tom Lay U1.5 and a late goal strategy. Feels like first two weeks in July were on fire, then second half has been pretty muted. LTBF and Tom Lay U1.5 are each down around 10%.
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@Joseph-Henderson great work, which strategies?
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@Jonathan-Jones
Yeah, I guess the risk you take on with a shared bank may be worth it for the early stages to grow your bank faster, particularly if starting off small. Could always split the bank up once you get to a stage where having a big drawdown (say 50%+) seems too scary..
