The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

@Lee-Colvin @Martin @Angus-Macleod @Robert-Cooke
Just checked my bots. The one on the Mega thread against the one I'm using. They are the same, bar the fact I am not trading on Saturdays as just not worth it.

I 'don't however take the qualifiers off there. I run a separate version (I've called qualifiers) with runner numbers and DSLR removed. These are then filtered in my bot as

Won't know the runner numbers until the race.
Won't know the DSLR of the favourite (because that might change) until the race.

That's why I am getting races as qualifiers on certain races, and you aren't. I'm ignoring those filters and letting the bot sort it out as they are unknown variables in the morning.

I thought I was losing the plot last night lol.

I actually meant to mention this to people before. Every strategy I have has two versions.

Qualifiers

Results.

Qualifiers is exactly the same as Results but with variables that can change on the day removed. (Runner Numbers, DSLR if I am laying a favourite and not a specific horse. Number of Qualifiers, etc). I then rely on my bot to filter these out.

Probably a practice everyone should follow as it stops Adam's favourite query

John Folan

Not the worst start to my Flat Pace Back Fitting experiment lol

Greg Mitchell

@dan-mackinnon There definitely is a 13:00 at Sedgefield

I guess my question is, if there is more than one horse in a race that has won at C & D, but only one that fits the odds criteria (2 to 7), do you still do that one or ignore the race?

Dan MacKinnon

@greg-mitchell I don't think there is a 13.00 at Sedgefield? I don't use the daily qualifiers I prefer to go into the software and look at the upcoming qualifiers. I wouldn't worry too much about odds at the moment as they won't be a true reflection until maybe 30 minutes before the race start. However, if you want to treat it as a set and forget you can see what qualifies now and queue them up, but just be aware the results will likely be different to the software.

Greg Mitchell

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Today's C&D winners

Rules: Back between 2-7 as close to official start as you can

02/12/2022 12:40 Sandown Step Back
02/12/2022 14:45 Sedgefield Road Warrior
02/12/2022 18:00 Dundalk Pierre Lapin
02/12/2022 18:30 Dundalk Zonik
02/12/2022 18:45 Newcastle After John
02/12/2022 19:15 Newcastle Huraiz

Running total -3
Software -4

@Dan-MacKinnon just looking at these selections, so the 13:00 @ Sedgefield, the filter daily qualifiers originally picked out 3 selections (although one of them is now a NR), of these selections only one is within the odds range 2-7, yet you haven't put it in your list, are you therefore only looking at races where there is only one horse that is a CD winner?

Dan MacKinnon

Today's C&D winners

Rules: Back between 2-7 as close to official start as you can

0_1669973209063_35a39829-07fb-485f-912b-7c13fdad65cc-image.png 02/12/2022 12:40 Sandown Step Back
02/12/2022 14:45 Sedgefield Road Warrior
02/12/2022 18:00 Dundalk Pierre Lapin
02/12/2022 18:30 Dundalk Zonik
02/12/2022 18:45 Newcastle After John
02/12/2022 19:15 Newcastle Huraiz

Running total -3
Software -4

John Folan

This post is deleted!

? Offline

@john-folan ok . thanks John.

John Folan

@robert-cooke said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan hi John. If the favourite for Chelmsford 8.00 isn't showing in the software selection but the race is, should I give it a miss. Thanks

My bot didn’t pick it up on distance. I think it’s the way my qualifying races are set up in the software. I’ll sort that in the morning so it doesn’t happen again

? Offline

@john-folan hi John. If the favourite for Chelmsford 8.00 isn't showing in the software selection but the race is, should I give it a miss. Thanks

Dan MacKinnon

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I've had a bit of a mess around with C&D winners. I know a few people were asking for something that you can use without bots and I think this might be as close to a set and forget as you can get with horse racing. The biggest downside is that it is still reliant on odds and they will move closer to the off.

My strategy is to back the horse which has won C&D as long as it's between 2.0 to 7.0 ideally 10 minutes before the race start.

I've done the usual and filtered class, race type and courses. I've also filtered so it's in the top 3 but that's not essential. Based on £100 bank with £1 bets these are my results

The strategy is here: 0_1669723580193_rules_export C&D winners.json

I'm going to trade this alongside the software and will post the daily selections here. In all honesty, this is a new strategy and there are some long losing streaks, however, it should be a good indication of what the software can do, how to trade horses without bots, and be a good example for people to ask questions. I'll be as transparent as possible.

If you do want to follow along, just remember the software is there to BACKTEST strategies, it's not a tipping service. To set possible expectations, if we had used £1 stakes since the start of September it would return £17. September would have lost £2, October won £19 and November break even. There was also a losing run of 15 trades.

Now that's all out the way let's go going!... oh wait. There's no selections today

I've created a Fairbot bot for these.
0_1669914566128_C&D Winners.fs

Nick Allan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Conducting an experiment into backfitting. I've redone the flat pace. I'm still backing the version on the megathread as that has done me alright so far. But I am going to monitor this version for the next three months and see what it throws up. I've gone to town on it filter wise. Lets see what happens.

whats the drawdown like now john?

Nick Allan

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

For all those who are software gurus can I ask a question? Is there anyway that you could look at results for the last four months as opposed to the last 18 months in the software? The only reason I asked this is the I wanna take a look at say specific courses and see if there are courses on a strategy that don't work well but I don't want results for the last 18 months because I think they could be somewhat skewed I'm looking for results within the last four months. Is there a way you can do this?

Create a filter "Specific Date" and then you have to click the start and end dates

thanks dan

Nick Allan

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@nick-allan download to Excel then filter or remove what you don’t want. Not sure about the software however

thanks chris

Philip Brogan

Hi Martin,

I have made a Martin's Back the Favourite 3.0. Can you have a look and tell me what you think?

0_1669902485837_Screenshot 2022-12-01 at 13-42-40 BTC Horse Racing Software.png
0_1669902508828_rules_export(2).json

Many thanks

Philip Brogan

John Folan

Conducting an experiment into backfitting. I've redone the flat pace. I'm still backing the version on the megathread as that has done me alright so far. But I am going to monitor this version for the next three months and see what it throws up. I've gone to town on it filter wise. Lets see what happens.

John Folan

I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:

Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.

Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads

Dan MacKinnon

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

~~30/11/2022 14:30 Dundalk Chica Power~~
~~30/11/2022 15:00 Dundalk Maestro Stick~~
30/11/2022 16:00 Dundalk No Speed Limit -1
30/11/2022 16:15 Kempton Spring Glow -1
30/11/2022 17:15 Kempton Free Step -1
~~30/11/2022 17:30 Dundalk Turf Range~~

Only 3 qualified and they all lost. Our first losing month! The software shows another trade that also lost but it must have qualified later on.

Running total: -3
Software: -4

Nothing today

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:

Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.

Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads

Another 0.4 losing day. Nice to finish the month on a winner tho. Live trading has me 10 points up pretty much exactly on these for the month.

Beaten favourites about the same and flat pace. Well that was just the gravy

Dan MacKinnon

@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

For all those who are software gurus can I ask a question? Is there anyway that you could look at results for the last four months as opposed to the last 18 months in the software? The only reason I asked this is the I wanna take a look at say specific courses and see if there are courses on a strategy that don't work well but I don't want results for the last 18 months because I think they could be somewhat skewed I'm looking for results within the last four months. Is there a way you can do this?

Create a filter "Specific Date" and then you have to click the start and end dates