The BTC Horse Racing Thread

David Milligan

@jonathan-jones brilliant day yesterday! I'm running Maria staking on the longer odds lay systems - so far so good. BFBM has a built in Maria setting though, might be a bit of a pain setting it manually each day in FB

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Damn good day yesterday. Plus 20.5 points. And, given i am running all the strats only a 1 point difference between actual and backtest is even better.

A while ago there was a bit of talk about Maria staking for the big lays. Does anyone use it? I did a quick analysis for my experiment and it looks pretty good. I didnt do it exactly (it looks like it staircases and i couldnt test just staircasing the lays) but its not reduced profitabilty too much but has reduced drawdown significantly.

Normal 1% stake
Biggest Loss Day: -23.21 points
Biggest Win Day: 60.72 points
Average: 5.07 points
Max DD: 38.4%
Total Balance (points) 1871.34

1% stake (Maria on Lays)
Biggest Loss Day: -17.31 points
Biggest Win Day: 57.89 points
Average: 4.1 points
Max DD: 21.7%
Total Balance (points) 1536.85

That looks like a good trade off. In practice its probably about 3 weeks longer to hit milestones in terms of balance and stake sizing but that drawdown reduction is tempting. Just got to figure out how the hell i am going to implement it in fairbot.

Adam

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

It is a massive day for backing favourites. One thing I’ve always noticed with Betfair outages is all my losing trades get settled but any winning ones get cancelled. I’ve never had one go the other way in 8 years when this has happened.

If that ever happens and it looks suspect, make sure to report it to them with as much evidence as you can. I got them to repay an £1800 loss on one race because their system crapped out once. Can't remember the circumstances now, I don't think it was an outage but I was able to prove that something had gone wrong their end.

John Folan

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@stephen-beale Think if anything, saturdays could maybe be a backing favourites kind of day? Yeah I know that some folk carry on trading even after an outage is repaired but personally I just down tools for the day to be on the safe side.

It is a massive day for backing favourites. One thing I’ve always noticed with Betfair outages is all my losing trades get settled but any winning ones get cancelled. I’ve never had one go the other way in 8 years when this has happened.

Angus Macleod

@stephen-beale Think if anything, saturdays could maybe be a backing favourites kind of day? Yeah I know that some folk carry on trading even after an outage is repaired but personally I just down tools for the day to be on the safe side.

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@angus-macleod As if by magic, 2 of today's lay selections (Galahad Threepwood in the 16.25 Donc, & Bollingerandkrug in the 16.45 Kelso) have both won. Really glad the website was down now lol

Angus Macleod

@stephen-beale I think it was mentioned a while back regarding Lay strategies that weekends weren't great for them historically. No doubt @John-Folan could clarify/expand on this.

I personally just stay away from them out of preference but I'm not saying profit can't be made, just noticed my weekly trades seemed to be better than my weekend ones.

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@angus-macleod That's really interesting. I've been playing around with a lay strategy and I just wondered about the "Day of Week" criteria filter. Turned out, dropping Sundays bumped me up from 4% ROI to 6%

Angus Macleod

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Betfairs up the spout

Apparently saturday afternoons are bad for this. I tried trading a couple of saturdays in the past and if there wasn't some kind of outage/interruption, my trades would just be total shite. Since then I just stayed away from weekend trading

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@john-folan
Had to switch to Betdaq.

John Folan

Betfairs up the spout

Angus Macleod

Good to hear such encouraging stuff about the various strategies, long may it continue! Lets all just remember to form an orderly queue when it comes time to buy private islands, yeah? We're not savages remember

John Folan

@daniel-mills said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

"John Folan a day ago reply quote
2/3 today. I’m reworking the short odds lays bot a bit. It will involve a slight bit of effort from people to exclude races but probably worth it. This is for BFBM which is deffo best for these sort of trades."

@john-folan filtering out certain races?

edit: didn't include the original post

No. Basically it will list the races for the day and you can then just exclude races that aren’t on the strategy list(chase for example)by clicking a selection in the race. I’m not changing the strategy at all.

I’ll explain it properly when I’ve tested it fully and post the bot file.

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"John Folan a day ago reply quote
2/3 today. I’m reworking the short odds lays bot a bit. It will involve a slight bit of effort from people to exclude races but probably worth it. This is for BFBM which is deffo best for these sort of trades."

@john-folan filtering out certain races?

edit: didn't include the original post

John Folan

@david-milligan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I only had two Short Lays and 1 LBF. Another couple of good wins on the backing strategies, they have been going very nicely! Nearly 50% bank increase for C&D in about four weeks!

It’s good to see all the strategies performing as should(even the bad spells). Waiting for the pace backs to kick off now and we will be all good.

David Milligan

I only had two Short Lays and 1 LBF. Another couple of good wins on the backing strategies, they have been going very nicely! Nearly 50% bank increase for C&D in about four weeks!

John Folan

@karl-pick said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

3/4 today. Nice

Yes Very Very Nice, for some reason I got 6/6 ?
Circus Act, Pretending, Allies Damour, Win Win Power, Alpha Zulu and Rossmore Nation.

God knows. We all seem to be getting slightly different results. BUT it’s the principle that’s the thing so it will work out in the end. I’m still not doing them on Saturdays though. Beaten Favourites today only.

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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

3/4 today. Nice

Yes Very Very Nice, for some reason I got 6/6 ?
Circus Act, Pretending, Allies Damour, Win Win Power, Alpha Zulu and Rossmore Nation.

John Folan

3/4 today. Nice

Adam

BetAngel has an API now which is pretty cool. I haven't looked at it yet but we'll create a qualifiers integration for it soon.