The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Hoping this downswing on the short odds lays turns around soon, my poor bank doesn't know whats hit it
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Since its now been 2 weeks i thought i would give a bit of an update on my portfolio experiment of trading all the strategies on a small account with a 1% risk.
Its been a rubbish start to be honest. I am in profit but i am also in drawdown and miles behind target. I am looking at the 'target' being the average daily points as determined by the historical data. That is 4.1, i am currently on 0.56 for a total of £3.26 profit. The drawdown and number of days in drawdown is nothing out of the ordinary from the historical (so far). at 8.6% and 7 days thats pretty common in the past 2 years. What is slightly worrying is that over 14 days i have only had 4 positive days. I cant see a period that poor at all in the last 2 years of data. Guessi picked a bad time to start.
So, the experiment continues. Next update will probably be at the end of the first month.
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@john-folan yeah expected it to be a little more competitive but state man just could not get close.
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@john-folan just too good that horse.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@craig-vaulks said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan state man is decent competition would expect it to put constitution hill under pressure at some point.
It’s drifted a bit. I took 1.39
Worth a go at that price.
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@craig-vaulks said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan state man is decent competition would expect it to put constitution hill under pressure at some point.
It’s drifted a bit. I took 1.39
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@john-folan state man is decent competition would expect it to put constitution hill under pressure at some point.
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I keep looking at Constitution Hill. I will be laying tomorrow as whilst it will probably win that horse is way to short and isn’t used to being raced off the bridle.
I’ll take a price as low was possible. Can’t resist something that short. Altior springs to mind.
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@jonathan-jones thanks, I'll have a look. New to BTC so still getting to grips with the stats software.
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@scott-higgins
Couldnt you do that here?
Set a filter by year (then probably by race type to reduce the number crunching). Set bet type to back, BSP (or whatever) then set the grouping to entry price. Wouldnt give a % but would give group totals and total (so wouldnt need a phd in math to work it out). IF you wantedto go further you could download the individual trades. -
@scott-higgins said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
A long shot but does anyone know of a site that would hold data on the odds of winning horses per year. By that I mean maybe % winners that started odds on, the % upto 10/1 etc.
I have this data if its any use?0_1678718058390_Horses 2021-2022 BSP Odds.xlsx
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A long shot but does anyone know of a site that would hold data on the odds of winning horses per year. By that I mean maybe % winners that started odds on, the % upto 10/1 etc.
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@greg-mitchell mine didn't today, just dropped them in manually. Wasn't 100% sure it was something wrong with the URL so didn't put a support ticket in
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Anybody else's tips not autoloading into BFBM?
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@jonathan-jones smart way to look at it
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@martin
Its all of them (almost).
Back C&D Winner (But i split it into 3 for the types and reworked the courses specific to each race type)
Back Favourite v3
Back Pace Horse (Its a small change to the preset but i posted the update on this thread a couple of weeks back)
Lay Beaten Favourite (i reworked the courses on this one but i did it over a shorter period. So i excluded the first 6 months from the backtest while i optimised the courses)
Short Odds Lays
and finally my own Laying at odds 3 to 7 in AW and Hurdle horses that have never won at that distance or on that course.So, pretty much just whats already available. after watching your video going throug hthe december (i think) results I was wondering what would happen if you traded them all as a portfolio. So i downloaded all the individual results and grouped by day. Its OK but was some room for improvement. So i just changed a few in ways to smooth out the equity curve, reduce DD (even at the expense of total profit) to make them a bit safer to trade as a portfolio. Spent most of Feb getting the mix right and sorting my automation. Went live with it on March 1st.
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@jonathan-jones I changed the LBF filter to stop at 11 max odds. Overall results didn't change much so I was happy to do it to allow the staking plan to work
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@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Damn good day yesterday. Plus 20.5 points. And, given i am running all the strats only a 1 point difference between actual and backtest is even better.
A while ago there was a bit of talk about Maria staking for the big lays. Does anyone use it? I did a quick analysis for my experiment and it looks pretty good. I didnt do it exactly (it looks like it staircases and i couldnt test just staircasing the lays) but its not reduced profitabilty too much but has reduced drawdown significantly.
Normal 1% stake
Biggest Loss Day: -23.21 points
Biggest Win Day: 60.72 points
Average: 5.07 points
Max DD: 38.4%
Total Balance (points) 1871.341% stake (Maria on Lays)
Biggest Loss Day: -17.31 points
Biggest Win Day: 57.89 points
Average: 4.1 points
Max DD: 21.7%
Total Balance (points) 1536.85That looks like a good trade off. In practice its probably about 3 weeks longer to hit milestones in terms of balance and stake sizing but that drawdown reduction is tempting. Just got to figure out how the hell i am going to implement it in fairbot.
Not the worst idea that and you can set it up in bfbm as one of the staking options easily enough.
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@david-milligan
Maria Staking plan goes to max odds of 11 so Lay Beaten fav is a tad more than that. It looks like a good start though. My Fairbot stuff is all automated (with scripted creation of the strategy files) so i need to have a think how to add this in. Might have an idea. Will test it out today.
