The road to full time
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@darri
Excellent!
Running is ideal for tracking. Personally, I find it boring, but even that allows me to empty my head. I only do it for the cardio benefits that allow me to do other sports.
But you can spice it up with sprints, running up steps/hills, tempo runs etc. Running 20 times up a 1 in 3 hill provides a wonderful sense of clarity (and rubbery legs).
And everything can be tracked via your phone/watch. -
@stuart-capstick 100% the latter, tracking progress is almost addictive for me.
I used to train twice a week with cricket and matches on sat/sun and play 5s with mates/or go a run with them. I stopped doing all that when i moved to edinburgh and since iv come back to aberdeen iv yet to restart it. We all need kicks to get us back on track. Iv become too settled with lockdown and working from home even pre lockdown. The mission has got to be turn a negative into a positive and try rebuild even if its slowly back to that stage. Im lucky im quite naturally fit and actually thinking of exercise is getting me quite hyped for it. I too noticed a massive mood swing in everything i did when i cut back, i just turned that focus to work to cover up for the loss of focus elsewhere. It was probably what you said about it mentally also the loss of routine i had with it too, knowing i had those things to look forward to. Gonna get up and start a positive routine iv setup tomorrow and slowly build that up to something manageable long term. I can already see the addictive side to it coming back.
I turn 30 in 2 years and would like to have this side back to what it was 2 years ago.
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@darri
Take care, Darri.
The only advice I can offer is, if you like a routine, exercise is ideal. I've done some form of exercise pretty much all my life and I've only noticed its benefits when I can't exercise. I tore some ligaments in my knee and it became apparent to everyone around me that without exercise I'm a nightmare; well, even more of a nightmare.
It doesn't get rid of stress or problems, but it helps to adjust your mindset: boosts serotonin, which in turn aids memory and other cognitive processes. If you are the methodical type, you can use it to measure progress which in itself becomes a motivating factor: a virtuous circle.
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Feel for you up there Darri also for you @Chris-Osborne its a tough situation.
Im lucky I get along great with the mrs and we have two dogs (one costing me £150 at the vets today, bless her). I think as Darri said each persons' situation is relevant to them and any 100% extreme (on your own ALL the time or with the same people ALL the time) with no break is hard for any of us. We need to mix things up in both directions to keep a happy healthy mind.
The community on here is great and probably been a big bonus for all of us this last 12 months.
FM challenge: take a minnow international side to the big time. Someone like Thailand (not European) go around and nab all the dual nationality youngsters before trying to push your nation in the various leagues so you can get more choice of players.
Stay safe and healthy
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@chris-osborne yep i can only assume itll be more or less the same, the thing that i find is those that have no one else in the house/flat want someone and those that do now dont its all relevant to the individual i suppose. I would 100% right now be over the moon to have someone to chat with everyday without it being a planned thing. Thats why we shouldnt try to compare others situations to our own. Those on their own have no one to help chat to about things unlike before when a friend could just nip round. I mean even partners etc i was living a great single life with decent money and a flat bang in the centre of town. Slowly restrictions have made that harder and im now stuck on that side of things too. It can become tit for tat when others say their way is harder and it fail to see that those alone are finding this just as hard. The lockdown for me is a mental game right now. Its not financial or physical (thankfully) but it is 100% mentally and strain for me alone in the flat.
Just posted it incase there was others in the same boat and that there are others feeling this way too. Yes i dont have family complications or financial issues but i do still have to deal with this mentally and alone in a flat. Big effort to re motivate myself this week and get into a good headspace. I took a break end of sept/early oct as it became a lot and gonna try make sure that doesnt happen again this time. Take advantage of the exercise, work and seeing another 1 other person outside and really come out of this in a safe and sane way.
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We are all feeling it guys.
We've got a good little community going here and I hear what Darri is saying and Chris, and yep we all feeling it.
I've just had the pleasure of informing my 5 year old that his school is closed for the foreseeable future and he's stuck with me. He seems joyed
Tough explaining this to kids thats for sure.
It works the same way here and Ill add it to my blog later but mental health is so important and if anybody is up late can't sleep or whatever chances are I'll be awake watching the cricket.
So take care don't be a hero and make the best of the situation as strange as that sounds to type. -
@darri I saw that earlier and feel for you. Boris is giving an announcement at 8pm tonight and I expect we’ll be following into a similar situation.
I know exactly what you mean, I’m also on my own and am also finding it increasingly more difficult the longer this goes on.
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So up in scotland we have now been given a further lockdown similar to that of march. Quite honestly its starting to drain on me a bit mentally. I dont live with family or anything and im starting to realise it affecting me. Its very rich of me to moan as my work is betfair trading and video production, both of which are still able to continue. So i cannot understand how those people are coping. When the first lockdown hit i managed to motivate myself by focussing on work. That can only last so long before you start to become a narcissist. I miss social interaction and the normality of life. I feel like not having a normal schedule has done me mentally. Having to re motivate myself to get back to the same mindset as last march is daunting. So im going to try make sure i make the most of 1 other person outside rule and see the people i care about whenever i can. Im going to double down on work and find things to keep me busy. Football manager got bombarded by me last year and any save ideas/playthroughs please message me them
If this next 3-4 months is going to be quite tight im gonna aim to be more mindset and physically better. Exercise im going to ramp up. Already planning running routes and walks with friends over the next 2 weeks and try stick to a routine. And its a routine i thrive and need to operate. When we were allowed relaxed between july and sept i built a solid routine and every person i spoke to said the same routines are what keep us sane and safe.So please dont hesitate to have a wee chat trading or not related on here with me. Im always kicking about at some stage of a day on here. Keep your mental health a priority this year and in this coming month. I feel for anyone who has lost anyone or if someone has become sick. Dont bottle it up its something iv learnt from a few years ago when my gambling got too much. Always here for a yap you lot. You read my ramblings all the time dont think i wouldnt be interested to chat with you about even the smallest of things. Stay safe and focus on work and exercise to get us through this time.
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just as a change of scenery from just football thought id explain my cricket trades today:
perth vs melbourne = +2.34%
perth had a very slow start to this game. After 10 overs which is my par score milestone they were well short. However had bags of wickets in hand. So i waited to see if when they would take the power surge. They waited till both batsmen had settled and then with my next milestone at 15 overs i backed them and would assess the trade after 15, they kept the score ticking along and two settled batsmen going into the last 5 overs is always deadly. With richardson only having 1 over left i kept the faith. Went on to score a whopping total. Now normally i would exit but the renegades have been poor. And with a hefty total to chase they would need to press on for runs instead of build it gradually like perth did. The mentality of chasing totals is far harder than building one.
2nd innings wickets tumbled and was an easy exit once marsh was dismissed. Nice trade and its all down to the par score guide i have mentally without even looking at a sheet anymore.adelaide vs sixers = + 3.64%
This time the slow build up and wickets in hand did not help build a solid total. Adelaide losing wickets cheaply with their main guys going at a run a ball (not good for t20). Taking an early position that pressure would build i backed the sixers. True enough that pressure mounted and they failed to post a 165 score which id class as a safe par score. Again with a solid position in the market i have no reason to exit the trade. This has been the big difference from the start of my cricket trading to now. Im maximising the trades rather than being so conservative and defensive/cutting short good positions.
Sixers got off to a cracking start had philippe got out cheap i may have had to exit for less profit and then reassess in game but he knocked a very healthy lead on the board. From there i felt that even with a flurry off rashid wickets id still be ok all the way to 6 wickets down with their batting lineup. There was a small rashid spell that caused the odds to jump back up but never getting near the break even point and so an easy ride to better green.Wanted to re affirm my decisions here and help show others what im looking at with cricket which is already firing up the green this month.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@bernardo-chaves ah yes sorry by me saying lcs it can get muddled up. I prefer to back the next overs. So 0-0 would be over 0.5 goals and 0-1 would be 1.5 goals etc. The terms can get confusing as some lay the correct score markets but for me i just prefer to back the overs markets. Better liquidity. When i post lcs all im saying is there is another goal coming. The ltd is however just a normal lay the draw normally of odds less than 1.8. If a goal goes in from either side after my time of entry im typically looking at very minimum of 80% return of stake, if it the fav or a very late goal can often be a 1:1 return or more.
Perfect. Thanks for that. And the Eibar trade you just posted couldn't be a better example. Cheers!
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@bernardo-chaves ah yes sorry by me saying lcs it can get muddled up. I prefer to back the next overs. So 0-0 would be over 0.5 goals and 0-1 would be 1.5 goals etc. The terms can get confusing as some lay the correct score markets but for me i just prefer to back the overs markets. Better liquidity. When i post lcs all im saying is there is another goal coming. The ltd is however just a normal lay the draw normally of odds less than 1.8. If a goal goes in from either side after my time of entry im typically looking at very minimum of 80% return of stake, if it the fav or a very late goal can often be a 1:1 return or more.
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@darri Thanks a lot for this thorough response mate. Your rational makes sense, and matches my understanding from what I had read in your previous posts. And now you saying that you entered the Dortmund game backing another goal instead of LCS makes sense to me. I guess I need to open my mind a bit more into the other football markets to identify where to stake. I come from Horse racing, there isn't much variability, and my core strategy revolves around laying 2.00-6.00 places, so I always go straight away to lay something... But based on your football SR strategy backing in this case seems more reasonable. I will keep following and hoping for a great 2021. Cheers!
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@bernardo-chaves nice to see new faces, welcome buddy!
Genoa vs lazio: For me i look for a few clear chances. Geno had a break away (the one you mentioned and then had a further attempt blocked in the box. Im looking for 2 of either expected goals/key chances or key moment in the game(this can also mean good opportunity but wrong pass etc).
Then in terms of odds i dont really have a min LTD price in mind due to the nature of how late in the game im laying i should get at least 80% of my stake if not more after the goal goes in for a trade out (currently testing to see if its better to leave that untraded).
Lazio had a huge chance which the bottled when lazari could have squared it to caicedo and maybe the break in league made that a bit sloppy.Dortmund vs wolfsburg: wolfsburg were always going to have to press for a goal, now while i wouldnt push trades like this as fav is already winning, dortmund score a vast majority of counter attacking goals. Wolfsburg are no mugs this season and presented 2 great chances not long after the goal. Weghorst had a blocked shot in the six yard box and i cant remember the other but was 2 chances in 2 mins.
Then in terms of odds 1.65 is the price i took for another goal. I believed that was a fair price to take due to the fact i was taking more premium team and was more likely than a regular team. Easily could have waited for better odds but i felt it was imminent an was within my 70-75 mins window so i entered.
This was a lovely tempo to the game and while the goal came late was part of the whole plan with trade in that i felt dortmund would score on the counter.In terms of odds and me saying 60% strike rate. That is true but with average odds. I youll notice on my sheets (not the updated ones but the previous years on i posted last week) that i normally trade anything higher than 1.65 as those are my minimum odds to break even. However adding up all my trades over the months i then come up with average odds normally above 1.75. So my strategy avg odds are 1.75 and my strike rate is normally around 63%. This will change this month because im now not lcs on the 0-0 and pure ltd trading them which will vastly improve my returns. I did a wee analysis post couple weeks ago showing how the 0-0 scoreline was profitable but not as profitable. And given the majority of my past results have been 0-0s then im hopeful to be breaking those records.
I really am not a fan of split staking personally. I dont see the risk reward being as good as staking just once. To get the best from a split stake you need all parts matched to be beating the effect of a single staked entry. For me people only use it so they can get in earlier instead of just waiting that 5-10 mins in fear of fomo. Personal opinion there are good traders who do split staking on this forum so dont hold me to this, just my own opinion. I prefer to get full reward for my well thought out trade. The pain when you do everything right and pick a good trade and for it to only be a partial winner would defeat me mentally. I also feel like your only really adding to the split stake because the goal hasnt come yet so your actually adding to losers and not getting full reward for winners. However if you get all matched your rosey but how often does that happen? For me i keep it simple one stake i either win or i lose no partials.
Hope thats helped answer your post bud, thanks for posting, let me know if you have any other questions bud always happy to chat about trades we both do. Always remember the PRE-INPLAY-PRICE all have to work in favour for me to enter. If you look further on in the blog i did a detail post of what each of those 3 steps involve for me.
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@daniel-mills said in The road to full time:
You shouldn't feel bad that other people are following your trades. As you pointed out before, you used to follow the trading thread to see if other full time traders like Keith were on the same games you were looking at. From my viewpoint, I've found it useful to see opportunities in the latter part of matches and see you've also entered. I'm sure that extra layer of confirmation has helped some of the other traders too.
Of course, whatever you decide to do moving forward is up to you and if it's any consolation, from my own results of the last 3 months trading the late over/unders markets was the most profitable trading strategy.
@Darri @Daniel-Mills Agree with this 100% I often trade and then check to see if any of the big hitters are on it for confirmation of my choice
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Hi Darri, quick question mate. I am new in the community and been following your posts for a while now. I am glad that you are back posting trades, as some have said, it gives us a bit of direction and assurance when we compare to ours. And my question is in that line. In one of the games today, Genoa and Lazio (it was a shame we lost that), I had entered at 70 min LTD with odds even. 5 min later you posted saying that you entered as well. I had entered right after a counter from Genoa that highlighted to me that the game was quite open at the moment. Can I ask what was your rational to enter the trade? Was something that happened or it was price related? I've noticed when you posted that the LTD odds were around 1.8. You always say that your trades need 60% strike rate to be profitable, and entering below odds even makes sense, however I've noticed you posting games when odds are above evens (LCS Dortmund today for instance). What is your staking rational? I am still trying to define my staking logic, I am splitting stake at the moment, as I am realising that reducing liability is being more beneficial, but at some times I end up not matching all my stake therefore not getting all potential profit. Sorry for the long post, it would be great if you could give more insight into those 2 specific trades of today regarding rational to enter, stakes and odds. Cheers!
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quick update regarding the 1.5 filter, im not going to be restricting it from now on. I was currently limiting it to set scorelines. However for data sake and to ramp up the process im just going to collect all data from every game on them regardless of score. Then once we have enough data on each scoreline make a good judgement on what works and doesnt. It will be more helpful that way than me just saying what scores to avoid without showing you guys proof in the data. Just posting this for those who are maybe tracking it as their own project and learning on the way, also as im now going to be including different scorelines so didnt want to confuse.
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Im a bit late here but I agree with the others. I think I mentioned some time ago that I learn a lot from 'watching' you and the games you post. I makes me ask, why has he chosen now to enter that game. Also if Im on the same game it helps to confirm my thinking.
It is our own risk if we follow your trades, we are the only ones responsible for our trades. We are all wearing big boy pants now so we have to take responsibility for our own actions.
Also this blog is for you as much as others so you do it however it works for you
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@darri Glad to hear it. Here's to a green 2021!
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legends
yep i think iv had my head turned a bit with what you guys have said and ill not look to change anymore. I totally get what you guys have said and iv been open in the past its how i started to get good at trading doing that same method of re assurance. The issue is like what most have said at first they did just copy cause they have no idea and i hate the notion of them coming on and thinking trading is crap. Imagine they came onto the forum on that dreaded sunday we all had. But iv taken on what you said and while part of me thinks that really i should be more focussed on helping those that stick at it and are using my posts in the correct way. Sometimes i veer from being a normal member on here to be trying to always help when i should just focus on my stuff. Just post what im doing, which over the years has been the stuff people have always preferred anyway. Thanks lads needed a fresh view instead of my own. -
@darri I agree with everyone else, it’s down to us if we decide to follow trades someone else posts and should always do our own research first. As James said if the games we have identified are also on the lists that people such as yourself are posting its validation we’re on the right track.
Any losses are our responsibility not yours.
At the end of the day, you have to do what’s right for you whether or not it’s in the football thread or posting the shortlist in here,
I like to see what the likes of you, Keith and Ryan more for validation than to blindly follow, I stopped doing that fairly quickly although i understand people would do that not realising who was profitable and who isn’t
