The road to full time
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1.5 SHG filter:
Iv made some changes and just want to explain the reasons for it. All i have done is removed some scorelines. So nothing has changed on the filter just the recorded games.
Scorelies removed:
home team winning HT
any game over 2.5 gls HTThis while its still early doors massively triples the p/l on the sheets. Now thats not my reason for doing it. There was 48 games on the sheet prior to that change. I was tracking these games just for filter results sake but each time it was a red and i felt like it was a waste of time tbh. I wouldnt do that if i had to put money to it so no point tracking. It will only buff up the results.
So an early change albeit on a small sample of games but a change id just personally like to make. The p/l of the sheet was 5.33 its now 12.94. So i think it would have taken a rather large surge from those scores to bump that back up. Like i say this wasnt because of p/l this was strike rate and making a good trading decision. Motivation is too big a factor for me to not include even in testing.
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I get the dilemma about the scope and see the positives for both! I’m really trying to focus on tweaking the filters I have to become profitable and consistent so I’ve dropped one of my wider filters and I’m going to test the ones I have with both scopes. The 1-0/0-1 issue actually looks a whole lot better when it’s NOT the first goal of the half so maybe that’s something for me to consider
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@lee-woodman yep not trying to change the filter too much, as every other scoreline is very good, its just seeing if i can improve on the 0-1/1-0 without affecting the overall filters results. Its just a test, gonna be a while tracking before i get a decent sample size anyway to compare against. I find that 5 games is true current form. Teams go through patches during the season of both good and bad, so taking 5 for me helps this, its also limiting as a counter to that but i prefer to be on current trends rather than historical ones. It might not give off different selections for a the majority but it will over the long term. Only time will tell
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@darri It’s quite interesting that it’s actually changed a lot of selections by switching from 5 to 10 scope. I have about half of your selections for today, plus a few different ones. I can see the difference in selections by using either home scored by ft or home scored and really there isn’t a lot of difference in selections. I’m going to track the filter on scope 5 aswell as I’ve been thinking about the effect of the 2 scopes recently
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@lee-woodman hey bud, its just tracking the changes i said id track on your thread mate. Just going to record games and then ill see if it makes any difference or not. Might be too strict by targeting H2 more than FT but will see. Also the 5 game scope is just my preferred scope as its current form. Ill let you know once i get a decent sample if there are any differences to your update you did last week. Its kind of me just marrying up what mine does and yours and trying to find working middle ground for me personally as i really liked your results just wanted to see if 0-1/1-0 could be improved.
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Hi Darri, I noticed you are recording a filter on your results sheet 'Lees with Home H2', just wondering out of curiosity what criteria you are using for it?
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@darri top man, really appreciate your reply. I'm definitely going to do more cricket. I love ill also. nice one as always for the depth in your answer. good stuff
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@john-hunt i didnt manage to trade the game. You can tell in your post you already know there was more chance and that you should have trusted your opinion there. But because you hesitated thats a sign that maybe the trade was more 50/50 than you liked so if that happens to me mentally i just avoid the game and take what iv already got and look for another entry. Its all about limiting risk with trading. For me i dont really trade in and out as much as others do i kind of like to back when i see a result for either side. To me this game was too evenly matched so i wouldnt have been able to trade it because perth scored a really good total and thunder chased it well. So not really able to guage where i would have entered tbh. Based on par score it would have been a good thing to be favouring perth for this game. However had cutting not got out at that point they probably would have coasted to victory. Tough game and those are the ones you have to just accept you may get it wrong but given the odds you were playing with there was loads of flexibility to be right or wrong and get out in time. Sometimes is good to just lock in profit and ignore the game. We can sometimes take that into the next game and feel like we missed out and it carries on to other games with that same mindset. With cricket id take it game by game. You assess how well you traded that one game and move on. Its different to football when i would then say its the strategy you monitor. Cricket matches are individually more important.
Id say from reading what you posted you traded that well and could have been even more but remember its could have been more. That doesnt mean it would have when you traded it. So yeah i probably wouldnt have traded the thunder to come back like that and look to back perth at some stage id probably have waited but as you saw there is loads of ways to tackle these games.
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@darri hello mate, hope your doing well. I just wanted to ask your thoughts on the big bash game this morning. and your opinion on my entry point, I hope thats ok, its through reading your posts thats actually made me have a more serious look at cricket. I'm from Australia, obviously living in the uk now for 20 years but do know a lot about cricket and the players act. basically I watch a hell of a lot. so today when thunder went 4 down and it was Billings half set with cutting coming in. at the time scorchers were 1.07 to lay. id already made 3 points pretty much before thunder started batting. so I played scorchers but it would seem there was plenty more money to be made if I just trusted what I was seeing instead of getting out after a couple of boundaries. anyway green is green, but I wanted to see where your thoughts were in that match? I hope you don't mind me asking, your posts have helped me. so thank you.
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SHG list 09/01
waregem vs mouscron
cercle brugge vs eupen
genoa vs bologna
waalwijk vs den haag
utrecht vs groningen
osasuna vs madridIf these perform as well as previous testing suggested then ill look to add these to the football thread i have a set and forget price in mind but im gonna test it first before posting.
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@james-woodroffe nah like i said 4-5 trades this month have been really sloppy. Now yes while im putting that down to lack of focus because i felt good on the cricket i havent actually just traded those games just to chase anything. People are quick to assume that with late goal trades. Based on the prices you take it sometimes can seem like your just covering other trades. I dont believe in that and if id done that id probably have doubled the amount of trades this month. But i do totally agree with you on the fact iv lost focus. Iv a years worth of profit in the late goals but there is a reason for that and it was my rules. Iv just been far too nonchalant with trades this week. The cricket and football worked really well last month infact was one of my better months. So really i dont think iv over worked anything. I think just because iv had a bad run people will see this as me trading badly. Its only 4-5 trades in my mind and this wouldnt even be a convo. The past 3 months have been huge and i think im just getting a wee hit to that nothing major.
You say get ahead of yourself and i do feel like that with the cricket. Dont worry im not taking offense i totally get your just asking a genuine question because its something you have done. However iv been doing this a while and i dont go to panic mode instead i go to safe mode. I revert back to the safest thing thats done me well then let that get me through the bad times. Now what you describe is what i used to do and it as you have said never works thats just because you havent had a big enough consistent patch but as we have spoke about you know fine well how to trade you just need confidence. With football iv 2 years worth of profit to show i dont get ahead of myself. In that there have been many ups and downs. This right now is no different to any of the bad runs iv had in the previous quarter of last year. In fact its identical. Its just that its happened start of month. But because its happened start of month and because i feel like a few trades have been sloppy i do feel i need to make sure that doesnt continue and give alot of focus to just a few things instead. The bbl lasts until end of month and then final part of comp starts so for me to given the fact cricket is my most profitable sport for the past 3 months im gonna just focus on that rest of this month. Ill be trading the filter only games but with a set price and just in the background bring back the profits.
So nah no major issues bud. Just looking at how best to be efficient rather than be critical on each individual game and i think draining as much profit from the cricket for the month is probably a better play for me while its still around. Revert to safe mode and resume as normal with the football, which in feb is the good part of season, loads of data to go off.
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@darri hey mate, I hear what you’re saying re football and totally get it. This is not a criticism and you and I have already established that sometimes the written word doesn’t communicate the tone of voice so here goes.
Do you think that it’s easy to fall into a “I know what I’m doing” mindset that can quickly backfire against us when we move away from what’s worked so well? I’ll give you an example from me. I got myself a bit rattled when the schools closed and moved away from what had been working so well with the cricket when I convinced myself lock in some green and go about this homeschool caper. It backfired really quickly and then I fell into the rookie move of trying to “make up losses” not saying that’s what you were doing mate but I definitely did and even tonight I hit some red on the tennis went to the filters on the football made it up got ahead of myself traded matches that were not on the filter then ended up treading water. Do you think that when things are going well it’s easier to get ahead of yourself? Thus moving away from what’s working? I’ve left the BBL alone cause I lost confidence even tho and I’ll use your example on the Renegades match today if I’d stuck with what we’ve proven has worked I wouldn’t have got myself in a pickle. I know it definitely happened tonight in the football. I posted some winning trades tonight and a loser but a couple of losses I didn’t have time to post that made me think why did I move away? I hope this all makes sense mate and again not critical of you as I’ve learnt so much but maybe we both fell into the same trap? Dunno just throwing it out there? 
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Couple of really dodgy trades tonight, bayern game against my rules. When a team is down i always make sure the team leading look good on the break. Gladbach too sloppy just relentless bayern pressure but not too much clear chances after 75 mins. Charlton game went against my 0-2/2-0 rule. I normally disregard those games, ended up being a drab game after 75 mins too. What im going to do is really stick to filter only trades this month to build the late goals back up and stick to the scorelines that have proven successful historically for me. Taken the foot off the ball a bit and missed out on a lot of green this month from silly football trades something that hasnt happened in a long time. Like iv been saying more recently i think im veering too much from football and not feeling the (pressure) to get a return from it and the first month iv felt like this after the success of cricket and im now in a red screen for football trading.
I could quite honestly say that i would be just around break even with about 4-5 of these trades now for silly trades and the only reason is this sloppy mindset of the cricket will see me through. This weekend will need to be a refresh even after the post i did earlier. While im not worried about the situation it is at an uncomfortable position one i havent been in for a while. While im in a bit of a slump im going to stop posting live trades purely because they arent winning right now. Ill post the lists up for people to see on here. Just need to regain focus again probably didnt help winning a sizeable amount on the cricket this morning thinking i was untouchable.
While it might be an idea to just do cricket rest of the month while the big bash and tests are so lively i can see my mistakes on the football. Silly scores/silly reasons for entry. Easily fixed and see if we can come out with some profit on the football as the month goes on.
Currently testing a couple of filters my own SHG filter which iv posted, Lees but adapted, and the 1.5 filter. All of which have a decent list of games this weekend. I may as i trade cricket more and more veer towards a filter only way of trading these. But before that happens i need data and ill update when each gets to a good number.
Edit: just looked i may give late goals a break rest of month actually, im thinking of small staking these filter games on a filter only basis and just letting cricket do the talking this month and come back in feb for a real focus back to football.
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Just a post since its a quite few days going over a trade today in the cricket and a wee chat about my trading.
Adelaide vs Melbourne
Decent total, above par score and with one of the better bowling attacks looked like strikers had this game covered. The renegades have only won one game this comp. So pretty much over before it started? Wrong!! Take each match as it comes. Its the same with football/any sport dont just assume wait and see if what you thought would happen is looking likely. After 10 overs of the chase MR had 86/3 up on the board and well on track for a good crack at the chase with less than 10 runs an over needed. In t20 your looking at a team getting around a 9 an over run rate last 10 overs (90 runs). Then having a look at the batters to come they still had at least 3 batsmen capable of getting runs. Then looking at the bowling rashid had 2 overs to go. With nabi in i thought that would be a good match up. As he is more likely to be able to handle him as he has probably faced him alot in the nets. The power surge to take also. So with all this in mind im veering towards a healthy attempt at this chase. Looking at the price before the 10th over it was 3.1 to back the renegades huge price. A wicket in the over before meant i waited an over. I like to allow batters to settle a bit. Entered the next over. A wicket did come but nabi found the boundary consistently as well as making sure dot balls didnt tally up. A comfortable win in t20 standards.
MY trading:
Funny start to the year. The thing thats got me to this stage of trading has had a sloppy start. Now when i look over at least 3 of those games i should not have traded and would not have traded last year. Iv been thinking as to why iv broke a few of my own rules and i do believe its because of cricket. Im becoming comfortable with how cricket is going that im more systematic with football. This has led to me going against some of the posts iv posted on here about how to trade late goals. For me this personal mindset needs to be changed and get back to business. Last few days have been better and no surprise iv started to tally up winning trades on them again. I said in a post not long ago, im still gonna have bad runs, but what happens end of the month/quarter is what counts. Someone asked if it was affecting me the fact i was down on the football. NO! Its just part of the process. Late goals is a risky trade compared to other strategies. But im sure many will see that its super consistent every month regardless of losing runs. Thats why i keep going and dont worry about day by day results it means nothing if im long term profitable.
This week marks 2 years at BTC. Iv come a long way since those £10-£20 stakes. My strategy looks different to then too. Used to enter around 60 mins. Now iv improved and optimised my trading and in 2 years i went full time. Iv now just quite comfortably won 5% on the cricket that now = £1k. Thats crazy to think about the growth. This year is all about reaching new milestones. While im still looking to add set and forgets im not worried if none of the tested stuff never makes it. Iv made it to this stage with ONE strategy please please understand that still have people asking for advice who are still trading more than 2 strategies that arent yet consistently profitable. Focus on one i swear it works better doing it this way. My trading snowball effect has well and truly taken shape and im enjoying trading again. I lost the love for it middle of last year. I had to take a break. Its god damn boring and really makes you fall out of love with football. It can grip you socially too and for me at 28 losing all that just to trade man utd vs burnley isnt worth it. Im now happy im at the stage when i can feel in total control of what im doing. I now have 2 sports i can pick and choose games for to fit round my life. Big year ahead and looking to turn £20k into £50k end of the year
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Iv been quite vocal with other peoples filters past few days both on the forum and messages. While its good to have discussions i hope people can see that everything even when data is present still holds on opinions. Even when iv helped iv thought wait thats just my opinion etc. Data doesnt lie. So to back up what iv been preaching im going to track and record the filter iv got just to show how simple a filter you actually need. These wont be me looking at inplays stats/key players/price just pure filter picks. In line with the data i collected from my own trading i want to eliminate overs 2.5 games because quite simply my strategy doesnt perform well with them. remember everyones filter will pick certain personality of games. I tend to find quite tight games because all my filter is doing is finding just one goal. each criteria is all about just 1 more goal. Whereas others have overkill on the just 1 more goal metric and lose out on low scoring games, instead they do much better than mine on already high scoring games. I hope somehow you can see that point. There are a few guys posting some good results strike rate wise on here and i want to show that its also possible even with more basic but focussed approach.
For me late goals given the size of odds we get to play with means that just a few % more either way in strike rate can have a huge impact on trading. So im going to go back to the start and really track my own filter. Try build it back up again in terms of data and see where the improvements are to be had. Really enjoying seeing how others do certain things and how they measure filters/results. Im far too simple minded. All iv ever cared about is does my strike rate compliment my price taken. For me maybe i have veered too much off the filter side as iv more and more ventured onto adding more games not on them. Interesting few months. Actually going back and fixing this has made football exciting again for me. Probably because iv had a dip this week that im looking into it. Still tho trading as normal today and just tracking in the background. If my results dont match upto other filters ill sure be adding in some of their stuff but i like to build something that i can do manually too. I like seeing it in front of me and for that ill just have to grind out a few months of tracking to get a decent sample size to see.
For me the 0-1 is my best performing score, others its the worst, all reliant on what criteria your asking from the filters. My filter is geared towards only needing one more goal and the home team scoring it. Basic but lets see if its the main reason 0-1 is my best and if im missing out on other scorelines. Or is my filter actually showing other scorelines are the best but just my actual trades based on my opinion are better because i have a good reason for entering. Its a battle with me because i trade by watching but id love to be in a position where i could just rely on my filter. Something iv not tested in a while since i became a better trader with a better understanding. Hopefully this time i can get better thoughts insights from a big data size instead of just my actual trades.
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heavily inspired by @Lee-woodman iv setup a temp sheet on my results to track my own filter. Iv not tested it for a while now. Want to for personal reasons see if it still is relevant in comparison to some of the filters people have posted on here. Everyone has had access to my filter for a while now and id like this year considering im trying to move onto cricket more and more and with the video production ongoing to be the year im less engrossed in the football side of things. Id ideally like a passive income on the football and gung ho on the cricket. Because i already know part of the data im looking at games with no goals after 60 and before my perceived entry. See what we get to come march/april and whats happening with it. If there are people posting better filters then of course im going to jump on over. Id still like to double check first tho however i do believe lees looks very good.
Most people will be already but head on over to the SH filters thread where lee has done some fantastic data recording for everyone around a couple filters. Nicely laid out analysis too
perfect for those who have results sheets and need an idea of how to break it down. -
@liam-willis said in The road to full time:
@darri i was furloughed in march and i was climbing the walls even though my plan has always been to trade full time, i think for me its the being told i cant do something lol, fortunately im still working at the mo. i do know the real problems mental health can bring as i went through depression 10 years ago so i will say that even though im working if anyone feels like its getting too much and needs a chat dont hesitate to reach out to me or anyone you feel comfortable with. a little bit of time costs nothing.
Fair play
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very slack start to my football trading this month. Luckily i have the cricket to keep me battling those losses. Im going to be looking at altering my approach in the next few weeks to a more safe type of trade. Looking back to the post i did last month regarding scorelines im going to focus on the 0-1/1-0/1-1 as just lcs type trades. They performed well last quarter and made the majority of the profits from late goals. Im also going to limit it to more obvious choices in terms of quality of teams. More emphasis on strong home teams. While this may sound jumpy its what i actually always do after a bad run of games. I often do get sloppy at times and it does hinder the massive potential the strategy has. You see when im doing the safe things we go on runs and i need to reinstate that advice. Last month we went on a 9/10 game run of late goals all with the safe option being key. All big teams and strong favs. A quick intervention is needed here to stem the tide of poor trades. Probably doesnt help that im taking football less seriously as the cricket profits are so good, im being a bit more nonchalant with football trades and thats prevalent here and also the end of last month too when bbl started.
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@darri i was furloughed in march and i was climbing the walls even though my plan has always been to trade full time, i think for me its the being told i cant do something lol, fortunately im still working at the mo. i do know the real problems mental health can bring as i went through depression 10 years ago so i will say that even though im working if anyone feels like its getting too much and needs a chat dont hesitate to reach out to me or anyone you feel comfortable with. a little bit of time costs nothing.
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Its a good point and i think its affecting a lot of peoples mental health. Its hard for people to have normality taken away from them and to deal with isolation, which for some can become loneliness. That side of it hasnt affected me so much as i live with my partner, 2 stepkids and my 2 kids (all age 6-10) live with me half the time but i can imagine not having that outside world becomes pretty lonely. If anything having the kids off for extended times has been great at times (notice i didnt say all the time!) and having had to go to court this year to re-instate my access its made me even more appreciative of that extra time with them. I have also continued working and although its not really a social job it has helped me retain a sense of routine, something which i think is very under appreciated. Maybe creating other routines and having non-working goals and targets may help? Like learning/studying something new or an exercise routine. For me i have done both of these and i try to understand what i feel like doing to occupy my anxious mind, whether it be something active like exercise or a bit more chilled like reading or something more productive.
