The road to full time
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Evening Darri, hope you are well and safe up there north of the border
Quick question about your over 1.5 set and forget testing. I am following along with my own but slightly different so I have to think for myself and not just copy. Let say it reaches 100-150 games, what would you be thinking is an acceptable sr to move it on to the next step?
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Added a new sheet to the results page. This one is just for a bit of fun. I want to see if i can add a automated strategy to my portfolio. I saw a member talk about unders trading and for a bit of fun ill try tackle it. Put just £100 towards it so just a fun bank. Ill try post all the games in advance. If it goes well ill take it way more seriously but its a fun experiment. The problem with unders trading is its hard to track without actually having stakes in it. So follow along if you want on min stakes im using £10 stakes. After the games each day ill update on the sheet. Since its set and forget i dont need to worry about using up time managing it. Like i say fun experiment obviously im still wanting to make money from it but only donating a £100 bank to the whole thing so only increasing stakes in line with that bank. See where it takes us. Iv never really wanted to trade unders that much. Iv built many profitable strategies for it before only in testing but i always get fed up with it. Liquidity matters most and its can sometimes be a fiddly strategy to get right.
wont be doing these this weekend this will most likely be a midweek thing as too much on at weekends in the other stuff. Never had time to set it all up for this weekend. Interestingly very good start to them for today first 4 games all winners. Sadly those dont count
midweek when i trade them ill post them on here rather than just on the sheets so people can easily see them. -
Thats me now just removing most 2nd div stuff as iv said countless times in the past higher the quality the more consistent the data. Championship and la liga 2 are still on the sheet, ill give them far more time. Yes been a bit jumpy to get rid of leagues but there are reasons why i quit them a long time ago for my main trading so for these set and forgets it continues to be the same thoughts. Ill not be changing anything else from them for a while so should be fine rest of month. Just nipping some of the junk out as i wouldnt trade them in my main stuff so no point here as im looking to make this my main stuff
bit of waffling today but just getting a buzz back for football when your trying to crack new ways of trading them. Games are up for all sheets tomorrow. -
@matt-wood yep i dont personally trade them but i gave them a chance on the set and forget data and they just dont match that either. Pretty quickly seems the data i collect reverts back to my own way before of specific leagues and scoreline entries. If it stays the way it is come end of jan ill be giving people a rather nice couple of strategies to follow.
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@darri I very rarely look at the dutch leagues now. Great stats on my spreadsheet but the price is always terrible.
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also getting rid of dutch div 2 (eerste) actually had a fair few games on the sheet for this league and has high strike rate as expected just price doesnt match the strike rate im after and time of entry im after. I know it looks like im just removing red but im actually watching each games price at certain time points to see if set and forgets are an option in certain leagues. These 2 dutch for price and german 2 for lack of consistency are why they are both out this week. Really trying to be league specific. In the update ill do end of month ill explain in detail what/how im trading these set and forgets, just would like another month on them for certainty reasons.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
bundesliga 2 continues to be a love hate league, removing it from my set and forgets
Its a league I've developed a severe hatred of when it comes to trading
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bundesliga 2 continues to be a love hate league, removing it from my set and forgets
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Ill do a decent updated post at end of this month to show how im currently trading and start to record results etc again. Really started to zone in on efficiency and whats games to target in both cricket and football. Really pleasing this past week the results im getting. Its quite a big change to my highly detailed type of trades. Im not making nearly as much on the football but its consistently going in the right direction. Which long term will actually be much easier to scale come to think of it. Anyway ill stop blabbing on about things you cant actually see and ill wait till end of month as thats when im planning to restart fully with the football, keeping my results sheet updated and posting my trades. In the meantime thought id do a small bank builder with the unders which you can follow along with to see the results on my sheet. Just a small fun experiment in a market i dont typically have a strong opinion on.
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@matt-wood enter just couple min before KO on the under 2.5 goals, look to exit when i get 25% of stake. So £10 stake would be a £12.50 lay to get £2.50 profit. Exit if a goal goes in regardless. If 2 before exit cant always guarantee with betfair
then can accept full loss. -
@darri Interesting Darri, do you have a predetermined cash out point so you can leave it as set and forget? Or do you let it go to HT? Or FT even?
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Added a new sheet to the results page. This one is just for a bit of fun. I want to see if i can add a automated strategy to my portfolio. I saw a member talk about unders trading and for a bit of fun ill try tackle it. Put just £100 towards it so just a fun bank. Ill try post all the games in advance. If it goes well ill take it way more seriously but its a fun experiment. The problem with unders trading is its hard to track without actually having stakes in it. So follow along if you want on min stakes im using £10 stakes. After the games each day ill update on the sheet. Since its set and forget i dont need to worry about using up time managing it. Like i say fun experiment obviously im still wanting to make money from it but only donating a £100 bank to the whole thing so only increasing stakes in line with that bank. See where it takes us. Iv never really wanted to trade unders that much. Iv built many profitable strategies for it before only in testing but i always get fed up with it. Liquidity matters most and its can sometimes be a fiddly strategy to get right.
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@lee-woodman yep i dont like recording shg filters when there has already been a goal in the SH. So we will always have different comparisons anyway. If i was to use your filter it would only be for one SHG anyway. I like my less filtered version right now only using one stat so im just continuing to track that instead. More games, just tracking right now, id expect a dip in the results at some stage but very good start. Actually i might keep yours recording and see the difference in the criteria after a set amount of games and the difference in amount of games too. Not odds dependant so can just update end of day. Since i voiced my opinion ill try back it up
prove im not speaking nonsense -
@darri I am recording the H2 figure aswell as a load of other data so once I have enough games I can check out stats for scored by FT and/or scored in H2 and I’ll post a direct comparison. I’ve also replicated the filter with a scope of 5 so I can also see if that is better/worse/indifferent. I do get a fair few games on the filter now and I’m happy with the amount. 0-1 and 1-0 are actually ok if it comes from a HT score of 0-0, so it only excludes a few games really
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@lee-woodman have been tracking your filter with the changes iv put in while they are 100% strike rate after only 9 games i think changing it from home FT to home H2 is over filtering it, as not many games are actually coming up. There are a good amount over the weekend so if anyone wants to continue to track it then see the screenshot i gave last week. I think it will be a solid earner for a set and forget. Was only making those changes to improve the 0-1 scoreline id be pretty happy for anyone to prove me wrong that it wouldnt but i think it will. because its changing FT to just H2 your going to get the same games just less. For me im looking at getting more games per month especially in this busy period we have to have more options.
My own stuff is what im looking to focus on again. Probably look to restart posting my football trades. They have taken a bounce back and started to peel back the bad start to jan. Not a massive swing just slowly nibbling away. Think i was probably getting in games after the winter break when players probably hadnt been match sharp. Thats since changed. Ill look to re add my sheets and results for transparency. Im looking at football slightly less detailed. Im becoming more a set and forget trader right now while the cricket is on. So not optimising my profits but just consistently building it up bit by bit. Ill start to repost on the football thread my trades.
Nice little break from posting and just focussing on trading efficiently rather then so detailed with all my entries. While it makes more profits to be more detailed it can sometimes be a drain however i will always be an advocate for the extra details. Even with the set and forgets they are still with those in mind. Sorry for the lack of trades or results lately just had to change a few things up to really get the most from the cricket this month.
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@lee-woodman said in The road to full time:
@darri Ah right, my bad, i missed the bit that you were recording a criteria with a blank value. I thought you were going to add it AFTER seeing how the initial filter performed
Thats why the ranges are so big right now with them on the sheets because they arent filtered yet. But this stat was actually one taken from yours as i liked that its measurable, its also on 2 other good filters so i valued that as a good indicator so thats why its the only other addition im thinking of right now.
The adapted filter iv done for yours and the end game stuff my well all merge if i find that those games on all 3 give a better strike rate etc. However im factoring amount of trades, scores and strike rates on times. Then ill see what performs better long term.
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@lee-woodman i dont plan on adding anything else other than the H2 avg and thats only if i find a trend in that to add it. If i had planned to add anything outside of those 2 criteria then i would do the same and track it with a =>0 tracking option. However no other criteria from what iv seen makes any big improvement. Im just looking around all filters and picked the 2 best H2 stats from them and those are the 2. Since H2 0.5 is a base stat pretty much for everyone then i can use that to track the games, and have H2 avg as the one without a limit yet. If at the end the two dont combine and i cant find a trend then id just revert to an already made filter like yourself. However im like others always looking at improvement. Building filters organically from the base up by yourself gives you that knowledge of the ins and outs and strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes i look at others filters and just have too many questions as to why they did this and that. I want to make my own filter from a mixture of my experience and from others results. So i do feel like there is zero point in adding the others as its just noise i dont need because there isnt anything else id add to it. I know this will work so to speak i just need to know how well. For now i cant say anything else other than ill wait until the data tells me. But for now the games im recording are still going to be games id look at. So example alanyaspor was a game on the filter, it had a red card in the first half. Id never touch that game so no point recording it. Its actually a game that would corrupt the data and i wouldnt get good odds on the game. So instead of adding another column just for data collecting is pointless as it would never touch the strategy.
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@darri Ah right, my bad, i missed the bit that you were recording a criteria with a blank value. I thought you were going to add it AFTER seeing how the initial filter performed
I dont agree that there is zero point in recording loads of data though, youre testing the effect of one additional criteria so testing the effect of a number of additional criteria simultaneously and individually makes sense and gives quite a few options, namely to see which gives you the best results
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@lee-woodman i think you have misread, i am filtering in the optional change. The avg H2 is the optional change which is the stat im tracking long term. I have the H2 avg set to 0 and just tracking. There is zero point in ramming the stats filter with loads of criteria without first knowing its affect on the whole market. This is something i wish people thought of. I only plan on adding one other criteria and im tracking it so fail to see what your meaning here bud cause im doing exactly as your implying? In terms of removing scores all iv done is look around the entire forum and my own results to realise that home team winning seems to not be a great scoreline for most. I wouldnt trade it so i dont see the reason to track it. Makes zero difference to the reason im tracking.
In terms of the 1.5 filter its just common sense to remove a game that was too high scoring a first half. Anything over 2.5 in the first half would mean your backing ov 4.5 goals and thats an overperforming game for pretty much every single league. So i fully back my decisions.
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@darri You are better recording more data than less and removing it later on, rather than the other way around. People (including myself) may have more criteria than necessary but thats better than not having enough because it gives more options.
If you collect say 200 games of data using 2 or 3 criteria and then analyse it and find that the SR is too low you'd need to add criteria at that point and start from scratch from a data collection perspective because the first 200 games dont really give you anything anymore. However, if you record additional criteria fields from the outset that MAY have an effect then when you analyse your results you can simply filter the 'optional' criteria in excel and see how it affects the results. I dont have a figure on this, i set it to zero. It could literally save months and months
Collecting the extra data adds nothing in time because its simply a 'copy and paste' from excel but it could potentially give you so much information
