From Goals To Match Points
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@matt-wood said in From Goals To Match Points:
Could it maybe be tied to something non trading related, such as 'real life' working pattern? Maybe heavier workload at the end of the month?
That’s a good point Matt I hadn’t considered. Working in Finance, month and quarter ends are incredibly busy
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@martin-futter Not that I'm aware of but need to look at it.
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Trading wise, November wasn't a great month in terms of results, bad start recovery in the middle then my usual poor end to a month which is becoming a worrying habit, don't think I'm forcing anything but need to have a look at what's been going on.
Not too concerned about overall results right now more looking at the process and building up everything else that is needed to make a success of this, to that end, there's a number of things I want to focus on in December.
- Continue the work I've been doing with developping some reliable filters, especially around strike rates and assessing value as well as assessing how the leagues are working and the impact of resting the poor performers.
- Huge emphasis needs to be on inplay and motivation and assessing entry and exit points. I'll always be more Data driven but its only part of the story and need to consider everything.
- Simplify what I'm doing
- The above are all football related, there's no Tennis going on until sometime early next year although talk of the Aussie Open being delayed, want to start planning ahead and researching players.
- Possibly look at trading software although that may have to wait until next year
If i was to focus on just one of the above it would be the Inplay analysis and motivation making sure I have answers to Ryan's "What has to happen" Question.
I've got next week off will be using part of that time to focus on the above.
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Apologies in my Deep Dive post I somehow managed to upload the contents of my entire One Drive folder instead of the file i intended to.
Fixed the link but also attached below.
0_1606397642148_O2.5 Filter Tracker.xlsx
Spreadsheets I'm ok with, Technology is a completely different ball game
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@martin-futter Mixture of both, the next goal marketis what I have observed from as its a strategy alot of people are using.
The next plus one goals market is from what I have noted down and averaged out. That's going to fluctuate as games come up, I would imagine it would reduce. to nearer evens over time.
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@matt-wood thanks Matt.
The BTTS I would set before the game start either at odds available if above evens or setting at 2.02 and if it gets matched then it’s all good and if not then no big deal.
The odds are from I have observed are currently available at HT regardless of if they we’re a winning or losing trade.
I haven’t classified any leagues as yet but need to for other things I’m testing
I agree with you about the spreadsheet, there’s too much on it which is why there is a summary TAB. I went into a bit of a wormhole with this. I was looking at the other spreadsheets posted recently and I liked the look of the one you posted
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Excellent stuff here Chris Really interesting reading.
I do have a couple of questions.
Easy one first; the BTTS trade, assuming odds of 2.02, would you look to enter when the odds hit this or is this to be placed at KO, IF the odds match your minimum?
I ask this since my BTTS stats are very similar to yours (assuming I only use the 'A' leagues from this).
I had been thinking along similar lines to you about a 'set and forget'.
Now on to the next question although I am sure you will set me right easily.
I did try to figure it out for myself first, using your link, but the huge amounts of raw data gave me flashbacks to being 17 and spending 2 years training to be an accountant before concluding I was rubbish at it. Upshot is, this morning, I spent a short while recovering in the fetal position under my desk with the dog.Your backing the next but one overs strategy. When you calculated the profitability the win line shows a healthy 47% strike rate and a whopping 1042 Is this drawn from your data where there were 2 2HG in all of those winners? Fantastic if it is. Does the loss line include games of only 1 goal that came after 65mins?
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This post is a bit of a deep dive on a filter I've been testing since the Software Challenge in the summer: -
Basic Idea
Seeing whether or not the opportunity was there for Second Half Goals if there was one goal at half time. The idea came about because on the occasions I followed Ryan's split stake strategy and there was a goal before half time, I would frequently see a second half goal and wanted to try and establish if there was an option for a Second Half Goals strategy.
Initial Findings
Qualifiers are few and far between, of the 146 potential games the filter has identified, only 44 games to date have had 1 goal at Half time of which 35 or 80% have seen a goal in the second half; -
An encouraging start but I'd like at least 100 qualifiers before drawing a definitive conclusion
Expanding the Focus
I haven't changed the fillter at all but I've expanded what I'm tracking to show all HT results and whether or not there is a Second Half Goal, again the results are encouraging without thinking as to how I could trade thes games - more detail on this later in the post: -
As the above table shows, 128 out of 146 or 88% games have had a Second Half Goal at some point
Poterntial Trading Opportunities
Although 88% of games are showing a Second Half Goal it doesn't necessarily mean that its a tradeable filter, I've looked a bit further into the results based on a couple of potential trading strategies I have in mind: -
Backing Next Overs Market
The idea here would be waiting until odds are greater than 1.5 and then back the next Overs Market which would usually happen around 60 minutes or so.
Gives us a strike rate of 46% and a profit of 13.2 units based on £10 stake although only 15% Losing trades but 40% would be no trades as the SHG came too early.
A question I have as I'm never sure of the approach but when calculating strike rates, how are No Trades treated?
Although profitable, I'm not convinced this is maximising the full earning potential with 40% of games ending up as a no trade which doesn't concern me as would prefer a no trade to losing trades.
Backing next but One Overs Market at Half Time
The basic idea here is that we back the next plus one Goals market at HT as long as the odds we're no lower than evens. I'm generally seeing anyrthing from Evens to 3's at this stage. If there is a goal before say 65 minutes, I would remove the liability, generating the freebet to leave running to the end of the game or next goal whichever is first. No further goal would make this a scratch trade.
If the first goal came between 65 to 75 minutes would let the trade run as there are a number of late goals. If no goal before 75 minutes, I am undecided whether or not to take the loss or just let the trade run. This would probably be dependent on In Play stats.
The results speak for themselves although am more than happy for anyone to check and verify my calculations as it seems to good to be true at this stage
This would probably be my preferred option not just because of the potential profits but it suits my trading style more. I'm also open to other suggestions
Alternative Options
I've also looked at a couple of other options in FHG and BTTS just to consider all avenues.
FHG's
I've currently discounted FHG's as an option for this particular filter as its not quite there yet although its not too far away from turning a loss to a profitible option
BTTS
Currently operating at a 60% Strike rate which if I was to trade would be profitable as a Set and Forget strategy prior to the game start although wouldn't take odds less than Evens.
Conclusion
The filter doesn't bring up many games but there is definite potential for the games that are there.
Trading next but one overs market at HT is my preferred option should my maths be correct and assuming the strategy is viable
Set and Forget BTTS strategy also a possibility
Usual conditions of Motivation, In Play and Key Player availability obviously need to be taken into account
Link to the spreadsheet which includes the Filter is linked below feel free to rip it to pieces
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Bit of a non event this week due to the International Break in the Football.
Ended up losing 1.5 pts in Football, most of which came today when i wasn't 100% focussed and missed an exit opportunity on one trade which ended up a full point loss and shouldn't have done. Lesson learnt.
Just under a point down on the Tennis all from Djokovic v Medvedev game where a Lay 1st Set winner trade didn't work out and Medvedev won in straight sets.
Got the next couple of days off work will be spending some of that time carrying out a review of data and results in particular from a Filter I've been testing.
More detailed update in the next couple of days
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@chris-osborne YES! Love this, some nice steps to see what to work on and how to keep on track.
Also helps M and I as well seeing this as then we know how best to help you too.
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@ryan-carruthers Thanks Ryan
Tennis will be on hold until next year as the season is over after this week bit will probably do some research in the plyers between now and then
Football Filters - the one I developed for the Software challenge is looking promising and will need so,e closer scritiny in the next couple of weeks. I've also got a couple of things on the go where I'm basically collecting data at the moment and see how we go. Don't know whether there is anything worth pursuing at this stage.
One thing I am doing is having used the filters for a few months now and understanding how they work, I'm going back over the videos to see if there is anything I can add to them to make them more robust.
The trading plan etc more than likely to post further in the Private Coaching Area