From Goals To Match Points
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@lee-woodman that’s a good idea, hadn’t thought of that
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@chris-osborne What I have found helps in this situation is say I have a filter which looks decent and then I filter it down by leagues, i will then replicate the filter but ONLY for those leagues which make the cut. I keep the original, download the data and can analyse it later (in case leagues improve/get worse) but the second filter becomes my shortlist if you like. It removes the doubt and constant need to check but also removes temptation
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@chris-osborne Keep it simple, keep working on it anything possible
it's great to see! -
@ryan said in From Goals To Match Points:
5pts a week is cracking and nice to see how simple your trading is becoming!
If you’d have told me that a year ago would never have believed it
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@chris-osborne Good week here Chris
More of this please 
Less really is more, only 22 trades for the whole month so far for me. I am sure like you in the past I probably did that in one day
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Last week was all about easing back into both Football and Tennis trading for different reasons.
Key lesson in both sports is simplification is the way forward
Football
Really good week, with 5pts profit and a 75% strike rate albet across just 11 trades. If I can continue with that rate I'll be more than happy. This time last year I was placing 11 trades if not more in one day, the continuous messages from the likes of @ryan, @darri amongst others about less is more is finally getting into my thick head.
One thing I have started doing is even if a game comes up as tradeable, then I will only do so if the league is profitible at a high strike rate and over and above the strike rate of the filter itself. i know others have been doing this for a while but its helping me at the minute. Also goes along way towards reducing the volume which will be key when Winter leagues start hitting filters in a few weeks.
I stopped football trading at the start of this year due to lack of fans but am starting to get back into it.
Tennis
Another 4pts profit with 62% strike rate split between ATP and WTA as shown below: -
Mainly been focussing on Projected hold trades and opposing underdogs who go ahead in the first set but my main trades are Lay 1st set winner at the start of the second set if underdog takes the first set.
As most tournaments are in North America currently leading up to the US OPen next week, timings suit me better which makes things alot easier for me.
Having said that, may not do much with tennis this week in the lead up to the US Open next week and focus more on research especially when the draws come out later in the week.
Going forward, I see tennis as being my main sport depending on timings with football there as a back up. I'm testing a couple of football strategies at the minute, may have stumbled on something from a filter that didn't work time will tell.
Tennis trades you need to be completely hands on and watching matches but your also in and out in a few minutes whereas football i'd like to get to be set and forget for the most part or placing at the start of each half. I know it suits alot of people but in play trading in football really isn't for me
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@chris-osborne apologies for the irrelevance of my post to tennis but I agree with your sentiment whole heartedly.
Went to a baseball game in London in 2019 with my dad, we like the Yankees and they won so it was a great day out. Won't ever forget that day and I've followed the sport a lot more closely ever since.
That's what being a fan and attending a game can do!
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With the lack of fans last season, I lost complete interest in football but it took one half of the Brentford v Arsenal game at a packed and rocking stadium last night for my enthusiasm to return. Long may it continue.
As well as Brentford played Arsenal we're appalling - Brighton must be laughing all the way to the bank wth the £50m they got for Ben White.
They have Chelsea and Man City next two games could quite easily have no pts after three games - early days but a decent start makes life a lot easier. I know the had players out but if that is there default performance won't be battling for European places but in the relegation battle probably unlikely but that was awful last night.
This will be a bit controversial but its good to see the return of the 3pm Saturday KO's in the Prem. Every game being televised last season was overkill although necessary.
Fans are also back in France and Germany not sure about the rest of Europe but long may in continue.
Tennis Trading
Hold the back page trading talk alert.
Got back into tennis trading this week not done alot but kept things simple seven trades, six winners and a 3.36 pts profit. Main focus was on lay 1st set winner trades. If I can make around 5pts profit per tournament I'll be happy. There are obviously going to be weeks that are more difficult than others.
It was good to be trading tennis again, I was overcomplicating tennis trading around the French Open and Wimbledon and stopped enjoying it. The North American time zones suit me better than the European tournaments.
I think going forward I'll focus on tennis Monday early in the week and football at the weekend but that may change.
Another ATP/WTA 1000 tournament coming up this week in Cinncinnati
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@chris-osborne go well Chris I’ll also be looking at slowly easing back into some tennis trading over this next few weeks.
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@martin thanks, that might be the tricky bit
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Tennis Trading Rules
Having had a break from Tennis Trading since Wimbledon which didn't go particularly well, will be back at it from tomorrow where there is an ATP/WTA 1000 tournament starting in Montreal. Following the Olympics a number of players have withdrawn but still a decent standard especially as this is a key tournament leading up to the US Open.
To hopefully improve my tennis trading, have come up with the following rules I would like ot keep to: -
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Only trade when I can give matches my full attention i.e nothibng in Europe whilst working
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No trading in third set unless using profits from first two sets. The only exceptions will be if a player who is known as a choker i.e. Bernarda Pera is a break up and serving for the set
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First Set main strategies will be Projected Hold and also backing a favourite who goes a break down early. Also, laying favourite at 33/44
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Second set main strategy will be Laying first set winner if my perceived underdog has won the first set assuming there is value to do so.
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Other strategies I will look at employing are based on inplay and surround known pressure points such as - WTA oppose players serving for set/match leading 5-4 or 6-5. Lay anyone a set and a break up or whio takes a double break lead in first set as the natural reaction will be to relax
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Wherever possible most trades will be lay trades ideally at 1.5 or below.
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IF trades go against me take loss if player opposing has broken and holds next service game unless I know something about players likely to choke - Pera, Giorgi, Sasnovich etc.
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Start removing liability as soon as trade goes in my favour if set remains even at 4-4 exit the trade
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Never let a trade run beyond the end of a set.
These are in no particular order and I have no doubt they will be tweeked over time
With regards to establishing my perceived favourite, i am looking at developping a model to establish this although no where near completion as yet.
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Apologies major rant incoming
Pre Season Friendlies Should Be Scrapped
Enough is enough,. After going through last season with an horrendous injury list as bad as Liverpool's at times., after a sickening challenge on Wesley Fofana in tonight's friendly with Villareal, looks like we could have lost him for the entire season.
With Castaigne still recovering from his injury in the Euro's and Evans still not recovered from the injury at the end of last season. Not to mention James Justin still recovering form the ACL iinjury we again start the season without what could be considered our first choice back four other than Soyuncu.
the only purpose of pre season games is to build up fitness, results are irrelevant, this could be achieved from inter squad matches, the risk of losing players to injury before the season has started is not worth it anymore.
I know lower league teams will say its useful turnover for them but is it really with the product being served when teams are completely changed at half time.
I've felt there a waste of time for a long while even more so after tonight but its time for PRe Season friendlies to be scrapped.
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Enjoying the break from trading although still placing some set and forgets more on that in a minute.
Don't know whether its the time difference but not got into the olympics as much as previously. Why does US television dictate the timing of when all the finals take place especially Swimming, I'm sorry but all mornings when the main sports are dressage and gymnastics are not going to get me watching even with Eurospory player.
Athletics looks to be better organised although as i write this Dina Asher-Smith just failed to reach the 100m final which she should have qualified for and medalled easily and she has now just withdrawn from the 200m her best event and rest of the Olymics but also is not good for the sprint relay team. Think this will be a down year for athletics which was probably inevitable
Having said that, the British swilmming especially the men has been incredible and we have our best return since 1908.
We're guaranteed medals in boxing and sailing looks promising in a couple of disciplines. Track cycling will also start soon which is normally a bit of a goldmine although it is unlikely we will match the returns in 2012 and 2016.
The things I like seeing are the excellent performances and medals from sports we rarely see other than at the Olympics - BMX and Canoe Slalom to name two of a number.
Set and Forgets
Following a delay because of a f*!$ uo by our payroll, I've put some money into Betdaq purely for set and forgets. After a slow start, as at last night was looking at a 12.5% ROI although there are a fair few selections today.
The strategies I'm following for this account currently are as follows: -
Keith's U1.5
Stuart's LTD
Darri's LTDI'd like to add one of my own at some point but in no rush. My initial aim is to have this account as risk free i.e; withdraw my investment as soon as I can.
Darri's idea of a kind of Index Fund mentality for this has merits although not if it involves other people trading on my behalf as that will require regulation and funds being kept in a seperate account.
However, as a suggestion where recommendations are consolidated in the software some how would be perfect and would also be useful to give new members to give something to get there teeth into.
Strategy Testing
Although not trading football or tennis at the minute, I am testing a couple of football strategies. One strategy which I have been testing isn't working as an initial idea however, I may have stumbled on a 2nd half LCS strategy which is currently running at an 82%.strile rate from 175 games this is before I do any league analysis.
Tennis I'm taking a complete break until the week after next.
Racing Software
You can write what I know about horse racing on the back of a folded stamp but the sneak preview Ryan posted of the software looks impressive, might have a look at that when its released. Most of the posts in the horse racing thread go completely over my head. However, if I can find something thats purely data driven might be worth considering
The only strategy I use for Racing from time to time is the "LAy the Rubbish Tipster" with slight variations which could be added to the set and forgets in time. It is a strategy which goes on good and bad runs though so won't be doing yet.
Hopefully be more trading in the next update.
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@chris-osborne do you also watch handball?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/handball/57890430
Finally a sports federation that cares about the integrity of their sport!
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@chris-osborne Love the sports you mentioned, I am going to be watching the hockey too as a mate of mine is in the team so I have a vested interest!
Yeh, no idea why you want to watch the volleyball! The surfing as well for me will be fun - I love watching surfing and love being around surf culture places.
