ELO Set and Forget Strategies
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I have been working on some ELO strategies with @Wayne-Ironside we have tested them for 3 months and have some seemingly positive trends. I still want more data as these don't throw up lots of selections everyday but rather quality over quantity!
The two main strategies actually come from the same filter idea. The idea was to find games where the away team was an underdog but had the better ELO. So that was what we tested.
We found that if the home team was odds of 2.12-2.5 it was profitable for backing the away team or laying the home team.
However, odds of 2.1 and below showed it was profitable to back the home team or lay the away team.
Of the two options laying seems to be the more stable option.
Anyway here are the two filters if you wish to see the criteria:
Back home/Lay Away 0_1648311873272_filter-settings (2).txt
Back Away/Lay Home 0_1648311887726_filter-settings (3).txt
Results are on the tabs at the bottom of this testing spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTpTekGxMYNfns6NmyxF9Zyvox3vQn2SCYWDOXu6hXM/edit#gid=701074414
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@wayne-ironside said in ELO Set and Forget Strategies:
Just thought I would provide an update. I have included my result tracking since start. One of the excel files is a filtered results with the worst performing leagues removed. The other is all the data. I run both so I can see if any leagues that I have filtered out improve. They both run at about the same profit, but the filtered leagues has half the results.0_1654082467133_ELO Away Filttered league.xlsx 0_1654082475268_ELO Away not filtered.xlsx
Cheers. I have been paper trading this aswell but notice I'm getting alot different selections then you I'm using the filter posted by Martin in the set and forget post. Is yours different? as my results have turned bad the last month.
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Just thought I would provide an update. I have included my result tracking since start. One of the excel files is a filtered results with the worst performing leagues removed. The other is all the data. I run both so I can see if any leagues that I have filtered out improve. They both run at about the same profit, but the filtered leagues has half the results.0_1654082467133_ELO Away Filttered league.xlsx 0_1654082475268_ELO Away not filtered.xlsx
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Had a wobble last weekend, but this weekend has been awesome, been filtering leagues, both filtered and non filtered have the same profit, but filtered has nearly half as many games, so around half the risk. Looks very promising so far.
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@martin said in ELO Set and Forget Strategies:
@niki-gibson-0 yes the only thing to add is on the one where you lay the home team it seems to be better just to back the away one. I need to do more testing on these and am not going live stakes yet myself. Want to sort the leagues specifically
But with laying the home you are 'winning' on the draw too?
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@niki-gibson-0 yes the only thing to add is on the one where you lay the home team it seems to be better just to back the away one. I need to do more testing on these and am not going live stakes yet myself. Want to sort the leagues specifically
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@martin Hi, new to BTC but was interested in following the testing of this and wanted to make sure I understood it properly.
I imported the two filters settings from the first post above into the football software.
When these bring up a qualifier, if the home back odds are 2.12 - 2.5 we lay the home team and if the home back odds are 2.1 and below we lay the away team. This is because as stated, laying is the more stable option.
Is that about the gist of it?
Thanks
Nick -
In regards of the two separate sheets for Away ELO. I just move the team within the range that I would trade to the other sheet. I probably could set up a filter that does it for me but haven't got around to it yet.
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@martin said in ELO Set and Forget Strategies:
@wayne-ironside brilliant can you upload the filter files for them both? Would like to run some league tests
Home ELO filter
{"userId":-99,"filterName":"","filterCombo":[{"id":0,"compiledSourceStats":[{"statSubject":6,"statType":4,"statId":104}],"relOperator":2,"compiledCompareStats":[],"customStatValue":"1","customStatValue2":0,"arithOperator":0,"multiplier":0},{"id":0,"compiledSourceStats":[{"statSubject":1,"statType":1,"statId":219}],"relOperator":2,"compiledCompareStats":[{"statSubject":2,"statType":1,"statId":219}],"customStatValue":0,"customStatValue2":0,"arithOperator":1,"multiplier":10},{"id":0,"compiledSourceStats":[{"statSubject":6,"statType":4,"statId":106}],"relOperator":6,"compiledCompareStats":[],"customStatValue":"1.20000005","customStatValue2":"3","arithOperator":0,"multiplier":0},{"id":0,"compiledSourceStats":[{"statSubject":2,"statType":1,"statId":219}],"relOperator":2,"compiledCompareStats":[],"customStatValue":"1","customStatValue2":0,"arithOperator":0,"multiplier":0},{"id":0,"compiledSourceStats":[{"statSubject":3,"statType":1,"statId":1}],"relOperator":4,"compiledCompareStats":[],"customStatValue":"10","customStatValue2":0,"arithOperator":0,"multiplier":0}],"countries":[],"leagues":[],"dates":[],"currentSeason":true,"numMatches":10,"minToMatch":0,"sameOpposition":false,"promotedRelegated":false,"goingInPlay":false,"playoffs":true,"publicKpi":false}
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@martin said in ELO Set and Forget Strategies:
@wayne-ironside brilliant can you upload the filter files for them both? Would like to run some league tests
This is away ELO filter{"userId":-99,"filterName":"","filterCombo":[{"id":0,"compiledSourceStats":[{"statSubject":6,"statType":4,"statId":104}],"relOperator":6,"compiledCompareStats":[],"customStatValue":"1.20000005","customStatValue2":"2.70000005","arithOperator":0,"multiplier":0},{"id":0,"compiledSourceStats":[{"statSubject":1,"statType":1,"statId":219}],"relOperator":2,"compiledCompareStats":[],"customStatValue":"1","customStatValue2":0,"arithOperator":0,"multiplier":0},{"id":0,"compiledSourceStats":[{"statSubject":6,"statType":4,"statId":106}],"relOperator":2,"compiledCompareStats":[],"customStatValue":"1","customStatValue2":0,"arithOperator":0,"multiplier":0},{"id":0,"compiledSourceStats":[{"statSubject":2,"statType":1,"statId":219}],"relOperator":2,"compiledCompareStats":[{"statSubject":1,"statType":1,"statId":219}],"customStatValue":0,"customStatValue2":0,"arithOperator":1,"multiplier":10},{"id":0,"compiledSourceStats":[{"statSubject":3,"statType":1,"statId":1}],"relOperator":4,"compiledCompareStats":[],"customStatValue":"10","customStatValue2":0,"arithOperator":0,"multiplier":0}],"countries":[],"leagues":[443,447,440,448,449,452,456,460,458,463,388,387,389,416,403,419,350,405,317,319,441,341,376,322,347,348,315,422,413,320,325,382,339,340,330,349,427,358,353,369,399,402,414,384,386,392,359,362,364,361,365,423,424,445,579,372,442,380,379,497,466,468,552,506,509,530,469,470,606,480,473,475,611,483,491,489,505,545,597,607,600,601,602,603,494,614,492,496,495,542,503,504,326,519,522,472,619,620,625,613,615,616,623,599,679,721,816,1735,1736,446,1737,1023,1029,652,806,1757,1841,417,622,859,654,653,412,390,598,608,612,617,618,498,546,1761,343,490,400,1777,393,366,1771,433,373,1738,1024,1025,2608,453,817,338,586,454,481,500,1739,639,336,335,332,527,682,352,429,354,367,396,397,510,385,394,360,363,430,431,605,474,485,418,549,377,535,493,624,499,508,409,408,484,478,714,531,1787,3694,381,2414,464,378,328,9940,477,532,324,327,577,553],"dates":["5 Days Or Earlier"],"currentSeason":true,"numMatches":10,"minToMatch":0,"sameOpposition":false,"promotedRelegated":false,"goingInPlay":false,"playoffs":true,"publicKpi":false}
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@wayne-ironside said in ELO Set and Forget Strategies:
0_1648481970982_ELO filtered data excluded odds.xlsx
This is the filtered odds ELO
Really interesting!
Great work!
Lovely Spreadsheet!
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@wayne-ironside on the 80% strike rate version that’s seriously good, average of 3.12 points returned per game
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0_1648481970982_ELO filtered data excluded odds.xlsx
This is the filtered odds ELO
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0_1648481937083_Away ELO Raw Data.xlsx
This is the ELO data without any filterin.
