Thanks Martin
Horse Racing
109
Topics
13.2k
Posts
@Tony-Hastie I used to be like that!
'well it's in the red so it must be rubbish!'
Tested for one day...
😆
what columns do you want?
@Adam said in Horse Racing Strategy Clinic:
@John-Folan There have been no updates to the software for a while. I can look into it if you log a support ticket with some more detail; it sounds more like a tech support request than a strategy clinic thing tbh.
Weirdly it’s righted itself. Finally back trading this weekend.
Here are the stats highlights from our software today!
Horse Racing - User Guide Here: https://new.betfairtradingcommunity.com/horse-racing-stats/
Terms Glossary:
LTO = Last Time Out
Dobbed = Price reduces 50% In Running, a £10 bet at the off would make £10 profit if price reached, £10 loss if price not reached.
Trobbed = Price reduces 66.67% in running, a £10 bet at the off would make £20 profit if price reached, £10 loss if price not reached.
Beaten Fav = Horse that was a favourite last time out and lost.
Steamed = Horse's price has shortened significantly
Drifted = Horse’s price has got bigger significantly
Class = Similar to divisions in football, so going up in class in theory is stronger competition, down in class weaker horses etc
Haydock 13:25
Furzig
Moved down a class since LTO
Papagei
Moved up a class since LTO
Glasses Up
Moved up a class since LTO
Bangor-On-Dee 13:35
Jumping Susie
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night
Fond Farewell
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 100% since last night
Home Sweet Highway
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Fllana Bay
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 50% since last night
Ascot 13:50
Obelix
Moved down a class since LTO
Double Time
Has won at distance
Crystal Casque
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Shaladar
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO
Power Of Gold
Moved up a class since LTO
Law Supreme
Has won at distance
Alazwar
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Desert Doctor
Has won at distance
Draw bias = 1.5499999523162842
Dakota Power
Moved up a class since LTO
One Step Beyond
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Draw bias = 1.7100000381469727
Little Empire
Has won at distance
Mumayaz
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night
Haydock 14:00
Grace Angel
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night
Never Dark
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.7999999523162842
Skallywag Bay
Moved up a class since LTO
Copper Knight
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Arecibo
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 40% since last night
Thunder Star
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
The Coffee Pod
Has won at distance
Kuwait City
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Secret Mistral
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
Beaten Fave LTO
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO
Our Absent Friends
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.6200000047683716
Zaphea
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Bangor-On-Dee 14:10
Simply Red
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Eagle's Realm
Market mover - Price drifted 80% since last night
Presenting Pete
Moved down a class since LTO
Market mover - Price steamed -43% since last night
Kopa Kilana
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Cawthorne Cracker
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Bangor-On-Dee 14:45
Jumping Jupiter
Market mover - Price drifted 50% since last night
Ferrobin
Moved down a class since LTO
Time To Tinker
Market mover - Price steamed -52% since last night
Aviewofthestars
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Ten Ten Twenty
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Fenney Brook
Market mover - Price steamed -38% since last night
Bergentown
Has won over course & distance combo
Into The Sunset
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Market mover - Price steamed -33% since last night
Bangor-On-Dee 15:20
Presentandcounting
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Riskintheground
Moved down a class since LTO
Before Midnight
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Herewegohoney
Moved up a class since LTO
Baron De Midleton
Moved up a class since LTO
Bella Bliss
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Lipa K
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO
Haydock 15:45
Seal Of Solomon
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Billy No Mates
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Haarar
Moved down a class since LTO
Gifted Angel
Moved down a class since LTO
Lunar Jet
Market mover - Price drifted 56% since last night
Down Royal 15:50
Mint Man
Moved down a class since LTO
Bangor-On-Dee 15:55
Restandbethankful
Dobbed in 9 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Mix Of Clover
Has won over course & distance combo
Dream Jet
Moved up a class since LTO
Malpas
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Nevendon
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Bix Beiderbecke
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Sword Of Fate
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Neigh Botha
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Beaten Fave LTO
Guillaume
Moved up a class since LTO
Kilbeggan 16:00
Pahlavi
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Florance
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Ascot 16:10
Dark Thirty
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Look Back Smiling
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.5299999713897705
Market mover - Price steamed -33% since last night
Thunder Blue
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Haydock 16:20
Boardman
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Persuasion
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
The Turpinator
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Yorkshire
Market mover - Price steamed -33% since last night
Tropez Power
Dobbed in 9 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Abduction
Moved up a class since LTO
Pumalin Park
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 50% since last night
Tanmawwy
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Thapa Vc
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 40% since last night
Bangor-On-Dee 16:30
Chinx Of Light
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night
Bucko's Boy
Has won at course
Watergrange Jack
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 40% since last night
Isthebaropen
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Hardy Boy
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Halifax
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Butler's Brief
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Finisk River
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Clararose
Moved up a class since LTO
Kilbeggan 16:35
Little Mixup
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Drumgill
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
By Your Side
Moved up a class since LTO
Major Barry
Moved up a class since LTO
Walhaan
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Striking
Moved up a class since LTO
The Dasher Conway
Has won at course
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Presenting Lad
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Influential Lady
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Baltinglass Hill
Moved up a class since LTO
Ascot 16:45
Awaal
Draw bias = 1.7100000381469727
Hafeet Alain
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won at distance
Tempus
Has won over course & distance combo
Navagio
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Classic
Beaten Fave LTO
Draw bias = 1.5499999523162842
Haydock 16:55
No Nay Nicki
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Gentle Ellen
Market mover - Price steamed -44% since last night
Oscar's Sister
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
Has won over course & distance combo
Kristal Klear
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.7400000095367432
Bangor-On-Dee 17:05
Motazzen
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Lady Wormsley
Moved down a class since LTO
Ibiza Rocks
Moved down a class since LTO
Kilbeggan 17:10
Augusta George
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Bright Start
Moved up a class since LTO
Ascot 17:20
Love Billy Boy
Moved down a class since LTO
Smart Vision
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won at distance
Zainabb
Market mover - Price drifted 47% since last night
Bangor-On-Dee 17:35
Walk The Moon
Moved up a class since LTO
Tropical Talent
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Grifter
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price steamed -56% since last night
Vertical
Moved down a class since LTO
Kilbeggan 17:40
Another Nightmare
Moved down a class since LTO
Craic Eile
Moved down a class since LTO
Thedancingfarrier
Moved down a class since LTO
Cafe Del Mar
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Down The Park
Moved down a class since LTO
Oh'herewego
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
He Fitz In
Has won at course
Kilmurry Jj
Beaten Fave LTO
Who's Houdini
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Down Royal 18:05
Astar
Market mover - Price steamed -33% since last night
Squire Danagher
Moved down a class since LTO
Zoffanien
Moved down a class since LTO
Belgoprince
Beaten Fave LTO
Barnacullia
Moved down a class since LTO
Happy Jacky
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Moved up a class since LTO
Rain
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night
Sceptred Isle
Moved up a class since LTO
Charlie Darling
Moved up a class since LTO
Kilbeggan 18:15
Ceroc
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
El Champo
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
Inforapenny
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Beaten Fave LTO
Robin Elite
Moved up a class since LTO
Miss Gherkin
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Moved down a class since LTO
Down Royal 18:40
French Company
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 4.25
Arch Enemy
Moved down a class since LTO
Bringsty
Moved down a class since LTO
Bright N Shine
Moved down a class since LTO
Market mover - Price steamed -36% since last night
Explorers Way
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Avatar Jet
Moved down a class since LTO
Wajaaha
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 4.25
Tartaraghan
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Kilbeggan 18:50
Charlie Luciano
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Watch The Weather
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Beaten Fave LTO
Moved up a class since LTO
Everglow
Has won at course
Clifftop
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Miss Agusta
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
General Clermont
Beaten Fave LTO
Moved up a class since LTO
Sargent Lightfoot
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Kilashee
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Down Royal 19:10
Beautiful Chaos
Moved down a class since LTO
Sir Allen
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 2.380000114440918
Enquire Within
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Figurehead
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Wild Shot
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
Albion Princess
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Bigz Belief
Moved down a class since LTO
Kempton 20:30
Enochdhu
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
Sonnerie Power
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Roost
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Capstan
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won at course
Grigio
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Kempton 21:00
Hiatus
Has won over course & distance combo
Soar Above
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Another Baar
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Fierce
Moved up a class since LTO
Beyond Equal
Has won over course & distance combo
Tremblant
Moved down a class since LTO
Big R
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Gherkin
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO
Vitalline
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO
Thanks,
Martin
Betfair Trading Tutor
@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan what you getting done in Turkey?
Teeth, hair transplant, tummy tuck and a face lift 😂
@Adam said in Question About BSP Place Markets:
@Michael-Chalk We get the place prices in a file from Betfair and the event name is still listed as "To Be Placed". BF don't seem to offer this market as a single entity any more on the website.
I think the price is taken from the TBP market with the same number of places as the Each Way market.
Nice and simple 🙄
Betfair don't make life easy for you do they!
@Wayne-Thomas OK thank you Wayne, I will follow with interst ,I noticed 4 possible bets yesterday and 4 winners.
We only have the full price history for the win market currently but will be adding other markets in future.
It's possible to add the place BSP as a column in the trades results, but it's not currently possible to filter on the place / each way odds.
@James-Mitchell said in DOB% Quesiton - 13/05 (1.47 Catterick):
Is there a benchmark figure or is literally any amount matched at the lowest point in play for said runner?
It's the lowest price with at least £1 matched. We're looking at ways of providing some liquidity settings so you can change the minimum amount matched for things like this 👍
@Paul-Hill don't think we could even investigate that, as there is no strategy to work from. perhaps something in the betting rules was slightly different, impossible to know if it wasn't saved unfortunately.
if you are 100% sure create it again and see if the results align with the saved one, save both and let us know the names if there is an issue and we could investigate.
@Paul-Hill The outsider is the horse with the highest price.
2nd outsider is the horse with the 2nd highest price, etc. Basically the opposite of the favourites.
The outsider setting works in conjunction with the other betting rules, so for example if you set your entry time as 10 mins before the race, it's basically going to give you whichever horse had the highest price at 10 mins before the race.
@Patrick-Murphy Having looked at some of these, it looks like they're due to gaps in the prices. So basically short amounts of time where we weren't able to capture price snapshots, so your exits have either been missed completely or recorded later than they should have been.
These gaps can be due to latency or brief outages of the Betfair API and occasionally due to some issue our end, like the server issue I posted about recently here.
We regularly plug these gaps where we can using the Betfair historical data, and we've recently improved our audit scripts to better identify when they happen, so have been going through the whole database again to apply this improved method. It's a fairly big task but should be finished by the end of next week.
Sometimes when the issue is at Betfair's end, the data doesn't even appear in their historical data, which means we won't be able to plug the gaps at all. This will represent a fraction of a percent of trades, but I can understand that if you're backing at very high odds and large stakes, it could skew the profit figure.
Maybe we need a way of marking these in the database. We could also add some kind of "report and exclude" button to each individual trade in the results table, so that if you spot any of these yourselves, you can submit them for review and make them not appear in your backtesting results.
I'll finish the DB audit and then see what we can do to deal with any issues that still remain.
@Danny-Bridges Actually I was wrong about it being a backwards compatibility issue.
It's actually being caused by a bug when you include "draw bias" in the individual trades results columns.
I'll fix this today but for now, just exclude that column in your results 👍
@Martin I'm really looking for a standard approach to calculating my stakes as a percentage of bank across various strategies (rather than based on a specific strategy). Generally I'm backing but some lay strats.
So for example, one strategy might have a 4% strike rate, odds range 20-100, average odds 38, longest losing run 133 and an ROI of 24%. I know I'll need to ride out long losing periods and my gut feel is I'd want at least a 200 point bank, probably more. If I plug the above into a basic Kelly calculator it gives me 1.41% as the 'Fraction of bankroll to wager' which equals a 70 point bank. That's way too low in my view.
2nd scenario - 24% strike rate, average odds 8, longest losing run 22 and an ROI of 37%. The basic Kelly calculator gives 13.14% as my stake %age (!) but my feel is this would work with a 100 point bank.
I've seen Kelly calculators with options to add multiples for a more cautious bank size (BFBM has a 'Divisor') and maybe I just need to use that but adjust the Divisor based on the average odds?
I've always used a level stakes approach and that's probably why I'm struggling with the percentage of bank that Kelly calculates. I also need to adjust to the percent of bank betting approach rather level stakes
Anyway, any thoughts from others with more experience using a percentage approach will be very welcome
Cheers
@nigel-stone welcome it's great to have you here! if you get stuck just let me know
@Andrew-Hopkins For today, yes
