Political Trading Thread

John Folan

This thread is closed, new thread is here: http://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1701/the-btc-political-trading-thread

Martin

New thread here: http://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1701/the-btc-political-trading-thread

Ryan

Nothing from me at present - I’m keeping an eye on things, nothing come up at the present.

Martin

How's everyone's Political trading going?

John Folan

@ryan-carruthers said in Political Trading Thread:

@john-folan Plus the fact he keeps calling it the China virus....

Some of the stuff I’ve been sent has had me in fits. Be grateful we can’t upload videos to the forum

Ryan

@john-folan Plus the fact he keeps calling it the China virus....

John Folan

Read the comments on Trumps tweets. There are people who think this virus is fake news!!!

Ryan

@will-b smart thinking.

Ryan

Biden is really pushing on now, the handling of Corona from Trump hasn't been great and a lot of people are actually really taking notice of Biden now, a lot of high profile people have put their faith in him and publicly said that they back him.

I'll be doing the same as you @John-Folan

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@John-Folan Yeah I think Biden's price reflects the fact he is pretty much assured of the republican nomination combined with a relatively small increase in Trump's odds. I do think Trump's odds will increase over the next month or 2, he's told everyone they should be able to go to church on Easter Sunday so disappointment is round the corner!

I'm also having a small lay of Trump for the Republican nomination. He'll almost certainly win the nomination but f his reputation does take a hit over the next few months then confidence in him will surely drop. You can lay him at 1.12 at the moment it's hard to imagine how those odds could possibly get shorter over the next few months and hopefully an opportunity will present itself to take some green during that period

John Folan

@will-b said in Political Trading Thread:

I'm really tempted to lay Trump or back Biden at the moment, anyone else got a view?

Biden is really short all of a sudden. Must admit I've taken my eye off this. Guessing Trump's handling of Coronavirus isn't going down well. I'm taking the back of Biden

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I'm really tempted to lay Trump or back Biden at the moment, anyone else got a view?

John Folan

@will-b said in Political Trading Thread:

I've taken my money out of Trump for next president for now. He seems to be in denial about the impact Coronavirus will have on regular people, he's just focusing on minimising the impact on businesses. But when regular voters start loosing jobs, or their quality of life takes a dip and potentially people they know die it's human nature that they will look for someone to blame. I don't think he's positioning himself well to avoid the fall out so it could snowball against him.
Fingers crossed in a couple of weeks it'll all blow over and I'll get my money back behind Trump but feels a little too risky for now

Sensible move that. Following suit.

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I've taken my money out of Trump for next president for now. He seems to be in denial about the impact Coronavirus will have on regular people, he's just focusing on minimising the impact on businesses. But when regular voters start loosing jobs, or their quality of life takes a dip and potentially people they know die it's human nature that they will look for someone to blame. I don't think he's positioning himself well to avoid the fall out so it could snowball against him.
Fingers crossed in a couple of weeks it'll all blow over and I'll get my money back behind Trump but feels a little too risky for now

Ryan

Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate Market - Kamala Harris backed around 3.6 for Vice President, Harris has the youth and experience and has a outlook which is aligned with Biden’s so I think the price will come in a little bit.

Simji

I took a small green on Sanders even with the little red on the next president market

Ryan

@john-folan defo!! It’s done I mean Bloomberg spent how much?! Still lost!

John Folan

@ryan-carruthers said in Political Trading Thread:

I am having a bit on Trump, his price has levelled out..... I think its got a bit of room to come down a bit more to be fair, I really cannot see Sanders or Biden rivalling him.

Trump will up the ante with the FB ads as well.

His Russian friends will help

Ryan

I am having a bit on Trump, his price has levelled out..... I think its got a bit of room to come down a bit more to be fair, I really cannot see Sanders or Biden rivalling him.

Trump will up the ante with the FB ads as well.

John Folan

@rob-arkell said in Political Trading Thread:

Sanders now way out at 19.5 for next president. If he wins Michigan as expected I think that price will come way down.
According to my American friends, Biden and Sanders a lot closer than the betfair market seems to think.

Will have a speculative on that I think