CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...
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Results 22/11/18:
FHG
Egypt, Premier League, 17:00 – Zamalek v El Daklyeh
Two sides that seemingly love a first half goal. Averaging 1.83 goals in H1. Neither side recording a halftime 0-0. A combined 63% of their goals are scored in H1 with 31% of that coming between the 31-45 minutes. 50% of their matches against similar opposition type (6 games) has gone over 1.5 FHG’s.
There could be goals in this one generally, 8 of Zamaleks last 9 games has gone over 2.5 with Zamalek scoring at least twice in 6 of their last 7 games. H2H shows that their last 4 matches in all competitions has also gone over 2.5.
Ultimately, it’s the Egyptian premier league so I won’t be going to heavily into the market but the stats are supportive and it finds its way onto my watch list to keep half an eye on.Result - two goals in the opening 10 mins was too quick for me so no trade.
Over 2.5 Value Pick
Sweden, Allsvenskan, 18:00 – AFC Esiklstuna v Brommapojkarna
This is a relegation playoff match so ordinarily I wouldn’t get involved but I want to keep an eye on this one on the basis that there could be some reasonable value in the odds. I have overs at 1.54 whereas the market is trading at 2.7.
Play off type games can go one of two ways, either cagey or full on blood and guts. Typically, the former is more likely but with not much else around today I’ll have the time to keep an eye on this and if the match is lively then a play around overs could be worth a smallish trade.Would want to see Samuel Nnamani on the team sheet for the home side and Markus Gustafsson for the away side.
Result - Entered the market at 2.75 for 1 point liability, an early goal on 12 minutes and out at 2.12 for 0.3 points profit.
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Watch List/Trading Plan22/11/18
FHG
Egypt, Premier League, 17:00 – Zamalek v El Daklyeh
Two sides that seemingly love a first half goal. Averaging 1.83 goals in H1. Neither side recording a halftime 0-0. A combined 63% of their goals are scored in H1 with 31% of that coming between the 31-45 minutes. 50% of their matches against similar opposition type (6 games) has gone over 1.5 FHG’s.
There could be goals in this one generally, 8 of Zamaleks last 9 games has gone over 2.5 with Zamalek scoring at least twice in 6 of their last 7 games. H2H shows that their last 4 matches in all competitions has also gone over 2.5.
Ultimately, it’s the Egyptian premier league so I won’t be going to heavily into the market but the stats are supportive and it finds its way onto my watch list to keep half an eye on.Over 2.5 Value Pick
Sweden, Allsvenskan, 18:00 – AFC Esiklstuna v Brommapojkarna
This is a relegation playoff match so ordinarily I wouldn’t get involved but I want to keep an eye on this one on the basis that there could be some reasonable value in the odds. I have overs at 1.54 whereas the market is trading at 2.7.
Play off type games can go one of two ways, either cagey or full on blood and guts. Typically, the former is more likely but with not much else around today I’ll have the time to keep an eye on this and if the match is lively then a play around overs could be worth a smallish trade.Would want to see Samuel Nnamani on the team sheet for the home side and Markus Gustafsson for the away side.
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Results 21/11/18:
Palmerias v America MG
Atletico PR v CorinthiansStrong home favs that score first in high percentages of their home games against teams that concede first in high percentages of their away games. Will be looking to back the home side at bigger odds in H2 if its 0-0 or laying the away side if they take the lead. As always check for supporting match action and look for the home sides to be getting the upper hand before entering the market.
Result - No trade on either game, I just couldnt stay awake! both games were 0-0 at halftime though and both home favs went on to win so at least the picks/research was sound.
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Watch List/Trading Plan 21/11/18:
Home Favs/Away Lays:
Brazil, Serie A, 11:45pm:
Palmerias v America MG
Atletico PR v CorinthiansStrong home favs that score first in high percentages of their home games against teams that concede first in high percentages of their away games. Will be looking to back the home side at bigger odds in H2 if its 0-0 or laying the away side if they take the lead. As always check for supporting match action and look for the home sides to be getting the upper hand before entering the market.
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Results - 20/11/18
2H Goals (LTD, LCS, BTTS)
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 19:00 – Jong Utrecht v Jong Ajax
Averaging 3.68 goals per game against similar opposition type, 1.97 of those coming in H2. In terms of goal times both sides record over 60% for goals conceded in H2. Over 0.5 goals for the away side in H2 is 95% and 76% for the home side. 3% FT 0-0. One to keep an eye on and see if the activity provides an opportunity to get involved. Entry could be in multiple different ways depending on what happens in the first half but any of the following could be viable LTD, LCS, BTTS or even siding with overs if 0-0,1-0 or 0-1. If 1-0 a home team lay would come into play too.
Would want to see Nick Venema playing for the home side and Danilo Pereira for the away side.
Result - A Nick Venema hat trick put pay to my lay of the home team. A loss of 1.4 points. On reflection i'm pretty comfortable with the choice and trade in general, the away side had plenty of the play and pushed sufficiently to warrant a cheap lay of the home side given their propensity to concede goals. Jong Ajax actually scored their third with the last kick of the game, had that have come a few minutes earlier the chances are I could have gotten out for a profit or scratch. Game ended 4-3. Something I could have considered but didnt was laying the correct score or overs markets in conjunction with the home team lay, that would have been a double payout if the away side scored or scratch/small profit if the home side scored, obviously it would have also added to the liability though if neither scored.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Laying jong Utrecht at 1.36
Going in again at 1.17 (average laybodds now 1.28).
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Laying jong Utrecht at 1.36
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Watch List/ Trading Plan 20/11/18
2H Goals (LTD, LCS, BTTS)
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 19:00 – Jong Utrecht v Jong Ajax
Averaging 3.68 goals per game against similar opposition type, 1.97 of those coming in H2. In terms of goal times both sides record over 60% for goals conceded in H2. Over 0.5 goals for the away side in H2 is 95% and 76% for the home side. 3% FT 0-0. One to keep an eye on and see if the activity provides an opportunity to get involved. Entry could be in multiple different ways depending on what happens in the first half but any of the following could be viable LTD, LCS, BTTS or even siding with overs if 0-0,1-0 or 0-1. If 1-0 a home team lay would come into play too.
Would want to see Nick Venema playing for the home side and Danilo Pereira for the away side.
As always with my notes treat it as a watch list, the stats support action but if there isnt any in the first half then dont enter or scale down the stakes. Likewise if there is plenty of confirming signals, scale in to the trade upto a predefined max liability for the trade. For me ill allocate 1.5 points to play with in this game.
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Weekly Round Up Results
13/11/18 Nothing
14/11/18 +2.54 points (2.4 points from Cillic v Isner)
15/11/18 Nothing
16/11/18 Nothing
17/11/18 -1.55 Points
18/11/18 NothingTotal + 0.99 points profit.
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Watch List/Trading Plan 19/11/18
Nothing from me today either.....roll on the weekend!
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Watch List/Trading Plan 18/11/18
Took the day off to spend with the family. The football quality was poor so no need to force it, especially on the back of a disappointing day yesterday.
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Results - 17/11/18
Netherlands, Eerste Divisie 19:45 – Cambuur v Volendam
Averaging 3.2 goals per game combined and 2.53 against similar opposition type. 100% of games combined have had a second half goal. 100% of games against similar opposition type have had a 2H goal. 67% of goals against similar opposition type come in 2H. 25% of the H2 goals are between the 70-80 minute mark. One to keep an eye on and look for opportunities to LCS or LTD from halftime onwards. Depending on the action I will play this one in different ways – I favour the home side scoring first.
Result
A 1 point loss here - Cambuur equalised on the stroke of halftime to make it 1-1 which at the time I thought was good news as it meant that my original plan of LTD in H2 was back on the table. Unfortunately the game ended 1-1. The second half was actually a bit lackluster and I should have been looking to scalp my liability out a little bit. This is a good example of one of my worst habits (see thread on Habits from @Luke-Ridger). I got married to the idea of there being a goal and didnt take sufficient action to minimize or at least reduce my risk/liability.
England, League One, 15:00 – Oxford v Gillingham
Of the 6 games played this season against similar opposition type 67% have gone over 1.5 first half goals. One to watch and see if a position can be built in the over 0.5 market if the action supports. Ill be looking to enter the market in 0.5 point liability increments from the 11th minute through to the 30th minute. I’ve allocated 1.5 points to this potential trade, an entry every ten minutes. Would want to see Tom Eaves on the team sheet for the away side. Please note with this that if the action doesn’t support I wont add in the 2nd and 3rd increments likewise they could be scaled back to 0.25 points or lower depending on the play. They will not be higher than 0.5 points though. Monitoring and reading the match is a big part of the skill with football trading, execution is part of the edge.
Result
Enough action in the first half here to support the original viewpoint, I ended up with 0.75 points on but no goal in the first half so a 0.75 loss. I'm happy enough with my trade here though, it was sensibly staked and I followed my plan. Sometimes they just don't come off. Oxford went on to win 1-0.
Unders Scalping:
Oldham v Cambridge - a goal after 7 minutes gave a nice entry and I managed to scalp out 0.10 points.
Mansfield v Port Vale - a goal after 41 minutes and a bit of scalping either side of halftime for 0.10 points.Overall Result:
- Minus1.55 points.
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Watch List/Trading Plan – 17/11/18
2H Goals:
Netherlands, Eerste Divisie 19:45 – Cambuur v Volendam
Averaging 3.2 goals per game combined and 2.53 against similar opposition type. 100% of games combined have had a second half goal. 100% of games against similar opposition type have had a 2H goal. 67% of goals against similar opposition type come in 2H. 25% of the H2 goals are between the 70-80 minute mark. One to keep an eye on and look for opportunities to LCS or LTD from halftime onwards. Depending on the action I will play this one in different ways – I favour the home side scoring first.
1H Goals:
England, League One, 15:00 – Oxford v Gillingham
Of the 6 games played this season against similar opposition type 67% have gone over 1.5 first half goals. One to watch and see if a position can be built in the over 0.5 market if the action supports. Ill be looking to enter the market in 0.5 point liability increments from the 11th minute through to the 30th minute. I’ve allocated 1.5 points to this potential trade, an entry every ten minutes. Would want to see Tom Eaves on the team sheet for the away side. Please note with this that if the action doesn’t support I wont add in the 2nd and 3rd increments likewise they could be scaled back to 0.25 points or lower depending on the play. They will not be higher than 0.5 points though. Monitoring and reading the match is a big part of the skill with football trading, execution is part of the edge.
Unders Scalping:
Oldham v Cambridge
Mansfield v Port ValeLooking to scalp under 3.5 in these games following goals or flat spots in the games. They both record low percentages of overs and respective goals scored when playing home for the home team and away for the away team
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Watch List/Trading Plan 16/11/18
Nothing from me today, nothing of any league quality hitting my filters. Will spend more time educating myself on the horses!
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Results 15/11/18
No trading on either game as it turned out, the Betfair interface was down yet again! I'm only surprised it wasn't a Saturday!
I did however take something from yesterday and it was that now is the right time to redistribute my bank across the exchanges. I usually keep a small amount in Betdaq and an even smaller amount in B365 but from today ill be putting 5 points in each Betdaq and Smarkets.
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@simon Happy Days!
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@chris-watts yeah I got this too! Kind of them!
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@ryan-carruthers They randomly put 5 points into my account as cash - I logged in and there was a landing page and graphic spouting something about rewarding customers and there it was in my balance!
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@chris-watts NO
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Did anyone else get an unexpected cash bonus from Betfair today???
