NFL Strategies
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@matt-ayles And despite all that the lowest they've traded is 3.5 whereas Rams are still at 1.36
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Unbelievable, Lions go up early then go onside kick in the first quarter! That's hilarious. Even better that they recovered it.
Keep a close eye there as if they go up 2 scores there may be a good lay opportunity.Almost went 4 and out but go fake punt!! Incredible stuff from a team who are 0-6!
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@matt-ayles said in NFL Strategies:
@matt-ayles said in NFL Strategies:
I think the Titans offer a value position this week. They have started strongly, have a good H2H with KC and Henry is on fire at RB...
It will be high scoring as KC are poor at stopping the rush, but similarly the Titans are poor against the pass which will help Mahomes. The stats suggest to me that this will be an offensive battle. Both teams have the "we'll just score more than you" setup.
I am not saying they will definitely win but I predict a much tighter game than 1.46 v 3.00 suggests so there should be opportunities to green up after the half.
Titans 14 points up and into 1.46 so time to green up.
What a shout this was! Well done!!!
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@matt-ayles said in NFL Strategies:
I think the Titans offer a value position this week. They have started strongly, have a good H2H with KC and Henry is on fire at RB...
It will be high scoring as KC are poor at stopping the rush, but similarly the Titans are poor against the pass which will help Mahomes. The stats suggest to me that this will be an offensive battle. Both teams have the "we'll just score more than you" setup.
I am not saying they will definitely win but I predict a much tighter game than 1.46 v 3.00 suggests so there should be opportunities to green up after the half.
Titans 14 points up and into 1.46 so time to green up.
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I think the Titans offer a value position this week. They have started strongly, have a good H2H with KC and Henry is on fire at RB...
It will be high scoring as KC are poor at stopping the rush, but similarly the Titans are poor against the pass which will help Mahomes. The stats suggest to me that this will be an offensive battle. Both teams have the "we'll just score more than you" setup.
I am not saying they will definitely win but I predict a much tighter game than 1.46 v 3.00 suggests so there should be opportunities to green up after the half.
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@martin Browns could be one to warch they are 1.61 at home to Denver on Thursday but they are decimated by injuries - likely to be without both Chubb and Hunt. Mayfield and Beckham are also major doubts. Landry has also been out for a couple of weeks already.
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@martin said in NFL Strategies:
@martin said in NFL Strategies:
Chargers @ 2.42 vs Ravens - This should be evens for me
Cardinals @2.5+ vs Browns - Again this is a coin toss for me
Cowboys @1.58 vs New England - Marginal one here but I have this at 1.5 at best so slight value.
Bills @ 1.45 vs Titans - I'd have this at 1.33, Bills look the real deal.Chargers @ 2.42 vs Ravens - Lost -1pts
Cardinals @2.56 vs Browns - Won +1.53pts
Cowboys @1.58 vs New England - Won +0.56ptsBills @ 1.45 vs Titans Lost - 1pts
Small profit in the end.
Total Profit: 0.09pts
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@martin said in NFL Strategies:
Chargers @ 2.42 vs Ravens - This should be evens for me
Cardinals @2.5+ vs Browns - Again this is a coin toss for me
Cowboys @1.58 vs New England - Marginal one here but I have this at 1.5 at best so slight value.
Bills @ 1.45 vs Titans - I'd have this at 1.33, Bills look the real deal.Chargers @ 2.42 vs Ravens - Lost -0.74pts
Cardinals @2.56 vs Browns - Won +1.53pts
Cowboys @1.58 vs New England - Won +0.56ptsBills @ 1.45 vs Titans
Total with one game to play: +1.35pts
Freerolling the last bet essentially
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@matt-ayles said in NFL Strategies:
@martin what would your exit plan be?
I'm testing these just as outright backs, if they do well I will implement something next season to share advice.
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@martin Interesting, like the look at the top 2. Although I'm a Dallas fan, would have us and the Patriots both around evens I guess the home advantage is pushing the cowboys price down.
Agree with the Bills they look a class above most teams especially in the AFC other than the Ravens. The NFC is wide open
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@martin what would your exit plan be?
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This is very much experimental and only back any of these if they concur with your thoughts but I'm testing out some picks that I deem to be value this season:
Chargers @ 2.42 vs Ravens - This should be evens for me
Cardinals @2.5+ vs Browns - Again this is a coin toss for me
Cowboys @1.58 vs New England - Marginal one here but I have this at 1.5 at best so slight value.
Bills @ 1.45 vs Titans - I'd have this at 1.33, Bills look the real deal.Like I say these are value for me because of the prices not because any of them are dead certs.
Chargers are the biggest value gap for me here and Bills are the ones I would be most confident on.
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@martin said in NFL Strategies:
@ryan said in NFL Strategies:
You can sense it in the crowd as well can't you?
Even though it's sold out, the crowd seems to get a bit flat.
I think the issue with the crowd is you get a lot of neutrals who support other teams. Majority of the crowd yesterday would have been wearing other jerseys!
This is definitely true. You can usually complete your I Spy NFL shirts book and send off for your badge before the games even kicked off
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@chris-osborne said in NFL Strategies:
@martin the point is Martin that the novelty value will wear off the product needs to be better
Yesterday’s match was over as a spectacle after 2 minutes
I agree with you but we are only ever going to get home teams who have Supebowls. So Miami, Tampa, LA etc
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@ryan said in NFL Strategies:
You can sense it in the crowd as well can't you?
Even though it's sold out, the crowd seems to get a bit flat.
I think the issue with the crowd is you get a lot of neutrals who support other teams. Majority of the crowd yesterday would have been wearing other jerseys!
