The Winning Edge Challenge – 3 Simple Steps

Ryan

@Nikki-HALSALL I love it they will all get stuck in I am sure. Maybe I just need two jazz it up a bit for them

Nikki HALSALL

@Ryan I won't take it personally I am new and over keen

Ryan

@Nikki-HALSALL Looking at the replies you might be in a team on your own

Patrik Mellqvist

I started my journey yesterday with two selections.
One other member made 87 placed bets with 73+ strike ratio.
With FHG.

Now I will show how I test this method with an 8£ Stake.
Back-drip-laying (to get better and higher overall odds).

The break even odds are around 1.36
(raw estimation based upon 73+ strike ratio)

And my bets average around 1.46 over the long term.
Raw estimation - if most goals are taken after the 10 min mark.

So I go to First Half Goal Market
Place bet at the given SP, then three more with 30 ticks higher.
For example 1.30 - 1.60 - 1.90 - 2.10

If the first bet is taken, you get odds 1.3 with 2£
If the second bet is taken, you get odds 1.45 with 4£
If the third bet is taken, you get odds 1.6 with 6£
If all bets are taken, you get odds 1.72 with 8£

My simple understanding and estimation - I can be wrong -
Is this approach better than waiting 10 min for odds to drift?
For two reasons:

I make the bet one set & forget with no in-play momentum.
I make overall higher odds than wait for 10 min for odds to drift.

One hack someone can do is letting odds drift for the first 10 minutes.
If the average drift is around 5 ticks or more, you just back that price before kick off and let it run to be taken - depending on early or no early goals within the first 10 minutes.
Then you also skip the in-play momentum.

Yesterdays selections:

Poland Ekstra ...
Legia vs. Slask
Decimal odds taken 1.85 with 8£ Stake (all 4 matched)
Profit +6.8£

France Ligue 1
Marseielle vs. Nantes
Decimal odds taken 1.76 with 8£ Stake (all 4 matched)
Loss -8£

Summary -1.2£

Cheers

Nikki HALSALL

@Ryan Yep I am up for that

Ryan

For those who are taking part, would you enjoy being put into teams? I am thinking noting competitive it just might be pretty fun to put you together with the other people who are on the same strategy as you?

Adrian Campbell

All in

Gerald Pearce

All in

Ryan

@Nikki-HALSALL

Thats pretty solid work already so far!

Danny Beal

@Martin All in, ideally a set and forget strategy

GREGORIOS KARASHIALIS

@Ryan

In

Nikki HALSALL

@Ryan I am on the FHG - in after 10 mins.

So far 84 Matches

47 Did have a FHG
15 Had a goal before 10 mins
22 No FHG goal

Ave odds at 10 mins 1.54

When it gets to 200 matches I want to work out the Ave odds at Kick off v Ave odds at 10 mins to see if missing the 15 is outweighed by the better odds at 10 mins - hope that makes sense - typing quick as am late for work!

Ryan

@Everyone Martin is back on Holiday now and will be picking up the people who want to be involved.

Those who are involved, how are you getting on?

Vince Kavanagh

@Ryan All in please

Vince Kavanagh

All in please gents

Patrik Mellqvist

@Ryan, all in ... cheers

Andrew Marchbank

All in

Paul McCay

All in

Brian Murray

@Ryan ALL IN

Samuel Barrett

All in please