My Accountability Post
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So I've been a member of BTC for quite a while now. I've jumped from strategy to strategy, almost quit a few times and have made all the mistakes that the majority will have. I'm still nowhere near where I want to be but have been tracking data for a while now which has directed me to where I am now.
I have realised that:
Data is money, there is no point starting a strategy unless it is backed up by data.
Short back odds or high lay odds aren't for me.
I sometimes doubt myself or act impulsively so I want a strategy where I don't have to think. My rules are my rules, if it's on my list and the score is 0-0 or 1-0 either way then I pull the trigger.
I have started live trading a SHG strategy that originally started off as an over 1.5 goals strategy.My strategy:
I only enter if 0-0/1-0/0-1 at HT.
I don't look at in play stats.
I set a lay the next over 1.5 (2 more goals) at 1.75 and then (keep in play). For 1 point.
I set a back the next over 0.5 goals at 2 and then (keep in play). For 1 point.
E.g (If it is 0-0 at HT, I will lay over 1.5 goals and back over 0.5)
If a goal goes in before the even money bet is matched then I cash out and take the profit.
If a goal goes in shortly after the second bet has matched I will trade out the other bet and take around a 0.6-1 points profit.
If a goal goes in late then I let the other trade run and hope for a late goal (which has happened a few times now) for 2 points win.
If there is no goal then I lose 1.75 points
If a goal goes in before my lay at 1.75 odds hits then I move on to the next game.My strike rate although only from 271 games where the score was 0-0/1-0/0-1 at HT from a spreadsheet of 752 games tracked since Feb 23 so ideally I would like more data but it's over the 250 mark.
(I did track before then but the data I tracked was pointless so I started again)Overall: 95%
Forward testing: 92.65%I am far from where I want to be but am feeling like I am on the right track so have started this thread for accountability and to make sure I don't steer from my rules and my plan.
I am tracking other strategies as well but want more data before I enter any of those.
So for for April I am 3.5 points up so hopefully my results don't tank from here.
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@ross-love said in My Accountability Post:
No games entered on the weekend.
April finished with +4.84 points.
1 Game to go at today
10:00 Central Coast Mariners v Adelaide
solid month good work mate!
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1 for tonight
19:30 Bochum v HoffenheimI'm climbing scaffel pike tomorrow so posting the weekends selections as well. I will only enter if the away teams odds are above 3. Will probably struggle to get the 2 afternoon kick offs on tomorrow being as I'll be up a mountain.
Saturday
12:00 Paderborn v Elversberg
15:00 Swindon v Morecambe
20:00 Aston Villa v ChelseaSunday
No games -
Grimsby v Swindon hit and traded out after the goal for just over 1 point profit. Another game that would have gone on to being 2 points win if i had let it run. I will be tracking that to see which would be the better return. Other 3 didn't hit the criteria at HT.
April so far + 4.84 points
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@Alastair-Todd That's the plan, but we'll see how much I'm enjoying the day at mile 20. Thank you and I appreciate the message.
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@ross-love said in My Accountability Post:
Nothing tonight.
Posting this weekends as I'm travelling to London tomorrow to run in the London Marathon so won't be able to post. Also won't be trading the Sundays games.
Entry only if away odds are above 3 and score is 0-0/1-0/0-1.Saturday
14:30 Hoffenheim v Gladbach
15:00 Grimsby v SwindonSunday
12:30 Karlsruher v Hertha Berlin
15:00 Palace v West HamGood luck in London. Start slow and enjoy the day, it's an incredible event.
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Nothing tonight.
Posting this weekends as I'm travelling to London tomorrow to run in the London Marathon so won't be able to post. Also won't be trading the Sundays games.
Entry only if away odds are above 3 at KO and score is 0-0/1-0/0-1 at HT.Saturday
14:30 Hoffenheim v Gladbach
15:00 Grimsby v SwindonSunday
12:30 Karlsruher v Hertha Berlin
15:00 Palace v West Ham