My Accountability Post
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So I've been a member of BTC for quite a while now. I've jumped from strategy to strategy, almost quit a few times and have made all the mistakes that the majority will have. I'm still nowhere near where I want to be but have been tracking data for a while now which has directed me to where I am now.
I have realised that:
Data is money, there is no point starting a strategy unless it is backed up by data.
Short back odds or high lay odds aren't for me.
I sometimes doubt myself or act impulsively so I want a strategy where I don't have to think. My rules are my rules, if it's on my list and the score is 0-0 or 1-0 either way then I pull the trigger.
I have started live trading a SHG strategy that originally started off as an over 1.5 goals strategy.My strategy:
I only enter if 0-0/1-0/0-1 at HT.
I don't look at in play stats.
I set a lay the next over 1.5 (2 more goals) at 1.75 and then (keep in play). For 1 point.
I set a back the next over 0.5 goals at 2 and then (keep in play). For 1 point.
E.g (If it is 0-0 at HT, I will lay over 1.5 goals and back over 0.5)
If a goal goes in before the even money bet is matched then I cash out and take the profit.
If a goal goes in shortly after the second bet has matched I will trade out the other bet and take around a 0.6-1 points profit.
If a goal goes in late then I let the other trade run and hope for a late goal (which has happened a few times now) for 2 points win.
If there is no goal then I lose 1.75 points
If a goal goes in before my lay at 1.75 odds hits then I move on to the next game.My strike rate although only from 271 games where the score was 0-0/1-0/0-1 at HT from a spreadsheet of 752 games tracked since Feb 23 so ideally I would like more data but it's over the 250 mark.
(I did track before then but the data I tracked was pointless so I started again)Overall: 95%
Forward testing: 92.65%I am far from where I want to be but am feeling like I am on the right track so have started this thread for accountability and to make sure I don't steer from my rules and my plan.
I am tracking other strategies as well but want more data before I enter any of those.
So for for April I am 3.5 points up so hopefully my results don't tank from here.
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Today's SHG selections
06:00 Hiroshima v Iwata - goal too early
15:00 Sogndal v Stabaek
15:00 Asane v Sandnes
15:00 Moss v Aalesund1st lay away was a loser -2.5 points
Today's selections (Small Stake Testing)
15:00 Sogndal v Stabaek
15: 00 Asane v Sandnes
03:30 Vancouver Whitecaps v Colorado Rapids
05:05 Verdy v Sapporo -
Yesterdays game was a winner, the goal came just before the 2nd bet matched so only a 0.12 points win.
Nothing today for the SHG.
I am going to start trading a lay away strategy that I have been tracking for a while with small stakes where I will be laying the away team for 1 point.
Today's game
01:30 Austin v Portland Timbers -
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@Martin Yeh you're right, it's a positive to take away. We can't get on every trade and life can't revolve around trading can it so at least it was another good selection and I seem to be on the right track. Also remaining strict with my decisions now as i would have gone looking for another game to go at in the past so another positive to take away.
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@ross-love said in My Accountability Post:
Ended up missing yesterdays game as something came up, it was an entry and winner which is a bit annoying but it is what it is.
2 games today
16:00 Molde v Sarpsborg
18:15 Tromso v RosenborgIn these situations just take the positive that it won and it shows you picked a good trade!
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@ross-love I will tag @Mark-Maguire here as he is a beast at this kind of thing.
