Horse Software Questions/Idea Thread
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I think we need this thread to really annoy Adam and Martin. But also to point out things we may or may not have thought of. Plus ideas for new angles/metrics that might be useful in the future.
There are no stupid questions. Just ask.
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@John-Folan said in Horse Software Questions/Idea Thread:
@Adam am I right in thinking that if I want to trade out at a certain point inrunning regardless of price if I put my time in(say 1 minute). Then put in profit of 100 ticks and a stop loss of 100 ticks. It will trade out on 60 seconds at whatever the profit/loss is whether it’s hit 100 either way or not?
Yes that's exactly what it does. You could just leave out the stop loss, in which case if your target profit is hit before the exit time then happy days, otherwise it will exit at the time you specify.
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@Joshua-Varley said in Horse Software Questions/Idea Thread:
@John-Folan obviously reality and the price in theory can be a little way off, but I think it gives a pretty good indication. I have a stray that trades out at 15 secs after odds and I get a decent match up in data.
Nice one. I don’t get too beaten up on exact matches. As long as it’s close and it’s profitable I am happy. BFBM just needs to be able to replicate the execution the same as the software. If it does that I am happy. You sound like you are of a similar mindset.
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@John-Folan obviously reality and the price in theory can be a little way off, but I think it gives a pretty good indication. I have a stray that trades out at 15 secs after odds and I get a decent match up in data.
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@Joshua-Varley said in Horse Software Questions/Idea Thread:
@John-Folan I do this and seems to work ok
Good. Means I think I can rely on the Dreammaker strategy to give me a fair few points a month. Thanks
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@John-Folan I do this and seems to work ok
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@Adam am I right in thinking that if I want to trade out at a certain point inrunning regardless of price if I put my time in(say 1 minute). Then put in profit of 100 ticks and a stop loss of 100 ticks. It will trade out on 60 seconds at whatever the profit/loss is whether it’s hit 100 either way or not?
If I’m right I’m adding this to my list of sneaky Folan workarounds
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@Tony-Hastie It's an impact value figure that tells you how much more or less winners each draw position produces, compared to what could be considered its fair share.
A value of 1.25 means there are 25% more winners than you might expect.
So for example if a course hypothetically had 4 stalls, you might expect an even 25% of wins in each stall if there was no bias. If one of the stalls gets more than 25% of the wins, its draw bias figure would be > 1.0.
It's narrowed down based on course, race type, and distance.
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@Tony-Hastie Draw bias: An impact value figure showing a higher likelihood of a horse winning when it runs from a certain stall
Draw bias: Some stalls at some courses (e.g. Chester) have a higher propensity for making winners
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@Adam in relation to the numbers in the software would you be able to explain draw bias to me?
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@Andy-Donnelly It's not currently possible to compare the draw / pace ratings of horses against each other.
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@Adam Is there a way in the software to create a strategy like the below:
Lay horse drawn in stall 1 with a zero pace rating IF horse in stall 2 or 3 has a high pace rating (like 10 or 12).
Bit akin to a greyhound strategy.
Basically adding the criteria of what the opposing horses are like in the race. Thought I’d check whether this kind of thing is on your roadmap. If not I can add it via the formal channels.
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@Danny-Bridges The easiest way to address this would be for us to enable the history/scope feature on the handicap rule, so you can get it to query past races.
Have added to the roadmap.
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Hi @Adam - is there any way of using the amount of handicap runs a horse has had in the software somewhere?
My logic in case it helps… trying to find any trends with horses 1st or 2nd time out in a handicap. Also looking to see if any specific trainers do well with this type of profile of horse as I have no doubts the first 3 qualifying runs are often used for “education” in a lot of cases before the handbrake comes off 1st or 2nd time in a handicap from a lowly official rating!
Thanks
Danny. -
@John-Folan said in Horse Software Questions/Idea Thread:
That’s interesting that yours updates. BFBM’s doesn’t. Which is annoying and something I have raised with them. I wasn’t sure if yours used actual or predicted so thank you for clearing that up
Yeah that's a shame as it's going to result in some discrepancies, but I definitely think we're on the right side of this one
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@Brigitta-Nagy use 'Classifications' then select 'Maiden'
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hi guys, @Adam
I cant find the opportunity to select only maiden races.
if I want to lay the fav only maiden races, please?
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@Tony-Hastie It depends what you're trying to do.
If you're looking for horses that have been held up in their last 3 races, you could just filter on a low pace rating in the current race.
What you're currently doing is checking the pace rating in the horse's last 3 races, which in turn is calculated from the last 3 races' pace letters.
So the pace rating in race 1 is calculating from the pace letters in races 2, 3 and 4. The pace rating in race 2 is calculated from the pace letter in races 3, 4 and 5, etc.
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@Adam
You said this in one of your comments..."Yes, the pace rating is always the expected rating based on the horse's last 3 races before the current one"Ive got a pace rating rule set up to search for horses with 100% of the last 3 runs being 0 or 2. Is that a bit pointless?