Horse Racing Strategy Clinic
-
@kevin-curry To filter on horses that have dropped in class or stayed the same since last time out, do this:
The operator is "greater than" because dropping in class means a higher class number. The multiplier is "0.99" so it will include races of the same class.
I'm not sure what the difference is between the first and second part of your question.
-
Hi
Adam
i am trying to put a strategy together where the main part of it is looking at horses that have dropped in class or staying in the same class in their next race then getting the result of that to run the strategy
Also, where it gives the selections showing horses selections for the day that are going down in class or staying in the same class with the other filters I put in placeCould you advise me on the best way to set this up, please?
-
@Danny-Beal thanks, I have betangel, but if it is possible on bfbm I have a hope that I can somehow do it with betangel, thanks.
-
@Brigitta-Nagy
Hi.
BFBM
After about a month of fiddling with setting I think I now have this working.
Age filter, see attached. Not sure which strategy this is, so ignore the fact is shows horses up to 10yo -
@Danny-Beal hi Danny, I just checked your strategy and would like to ask if you do it with betangle or BF bot, if so how do you select horses under 8 ys in your software?
-
@Brigitta-Nagy Yes, you need to remove the BSP favourite rule if you're betting 6 hours before the race.
-
@Adam thank you
rules_export_1.jsonThis doesn't make sense, does it?
this one shows what if I backed the favourite at the start, but the odds is 6 hs earlier than start? -
- Set your bet side to "back"
- Set your desired entry price
- Set the betting window to "before race start" and enter a time range around the 4 hour mark
- Include "Favourite" in the Favourites section
-
hi guys, and @Adam how can i select a horse that was the favourite 4 hours before the race and check what happens if I bet on it as a normal bet?
-
@Adam
Thanks Adam.
The day of the month synopsis make sense.
The furlongs- tested with and without the middle batch of distances
With 11-15 Furlongs included Archie 37
Without- 47So the removal seemingly makes this more robust.
I think I will try out the other points made and see if I can spot something else from another angle.
Many thanks.
-
The "day of month" one definitely sounds like a red herring to me. There's no intrinsic reason why those specific days would cause a problem, especially as they'll be a different day of the week much of the time.
The distance one also sounds suspect, I'm always suspicious of removing numbers from the middle of a range. It would make more sense if you were eliminating them from the ends of the range (i.e. each end of the bell-curve).
Worth seeing if the archie score goes up or down with the addition / removal of those rules.
The other thing to do is try and figure out whether there's some other factor that is meaningful, which led to that coincidence.
For example are there certain types of race that are mostly 11-15 furlongs and it's actually those race types that you need to look at rather than the distance itself? Can't think of any off the top of my head, just an example.
You could invert the strategy so it's ONLY that distance range selected and play with the results groupings to try and find a pattern.
Also worth looking at the monthly breakdown for those distances. If it's all over the place, up one month, down the next rather than consistently down, that would also suggest it's not a statistically significant factor.
-
Hi.
I have created and just started forward testing the attached, I'm pretty excited by it.I have noticed that the ROI will go higher still by removing Race Distance 11-15, and also the 19 and 9th days of the month.
How far is too far when creating using filters for a strategy. I have a feeling that removing parts of a large group (furlongs 5-24, then taking out 11-15) kind of feels like massaging figures somewhat.
Any thoughts on this and also the month/day part too would be greatly appreciated.
-
@Danny-Bridges We have the race on the 18th as 1m 2f 43yds. As I say, we'll consider whether we can round to the nearest furlong instead.
-
@Adam Thanks Adam, appreciate you taking the time to look into this. I have pasted the view from Skysports racing as well for the 2 winning runs and then today's race distance which all seem to be the same. Let me know what you find. Thanks/
-
@Danny-Bridges It would be me answering the support ticket so rest assured, if you submitted it there you would still get an answer
The run on 18/03/2022 was the same distance if rounded to the nearest furlong, but not the same exact distance to the yard.
I guess if RP is basing this stat on the distance rounded to the furlong, we should try and be consistent with them. I have a feeling we had this discussion early on though and deliberately set it that way based on previous feedback. I'll look through the old support tickets and if not, we'll update it to round to the furlong in the next release.
-
hi @Adam - Hope you are well, I raised a support form for this but posting in here in case you can also help. I have attached the JSON file for a strategy I have been testing and came across a Horse running today (19/01/2024) at Newcastle in the 15:45. Horse Name is Cusack. Could be my understanding of the rules but according to my strategy I am expecting only horses with 1 C&D win to qualify at the selected courses with runners between 2-9. When I dug a little bit deeper into the C&D wins of Cusack I can see the horse has actually won twice (31/03/2023 & 18/02/2022) at Newcastle C&D 1m2f so struggling to see why the horse qualifies under my strategy rules.
I even extended the runners upto 12 in the strategy to review the daily qualifiers to see if it was the Race from 18/01/2022 which was causing the issue since it's outside of the Runners range for my strategy but it's still showing Cusack to only have 1 C&D win. Hopefully you can shed some light on this.
-
Yep I get it now, thanks Adam!
It's going to be a beast of a filter when I am done with it then as I need to Filter out all the options bar 1, then put an "OR" in and repeat 3 times, because I want only 3 types of equipment, haha. Will give it a go anyway though cheers.
-
@Andrew-Gray said in Horse Racing Strategy Clinic:
So I presume each category is actually different and for example "Visor Windop" selections are not included in "Visor"... is that right?
Yes, the group breakdown is based on the full combination of equipment to avoid any overlap.
In that case how would I go about selecting "Visor Windop" in the filters because I don't see that option, there are only the options for each peice of equipment on it's own (this is just a question so I can understant how it works)
You can add another instance of the rule and select "Wind Op", e.g:
This will include any horses wearing a visor and/or have had a wind op, so your group breakdown might look something like this:
Note that this includes some horses that wore other gear in addition to the visors and wind ops. If you ONLY want visors and wind ops, you can add a rule group with the equipment to exclude, e.g.:
Now your results will look something like:
Conversely if "Visor Windop" is included by selecting "Visor" in the filter settings, how can I select horses that ONLY have a "Visor" and nothing else (this is actually what I want to do)
Follow the example above to exclude any that you don't want to see.
Note that you don't need to exclude all the "1st", "2nd", etc options. E.g. if I excluded "Wind Op" from the above, it would remove all wind ops, regardless of whether it was the 1st time, 2nd time, etc.
-
HI @Adam
Struggling with something which is to do with the Equipment, won't post the filter as should be able to explain it pretty clearly.
So I split results by equipment and exported to spreadsheet, here is a few rows of the results:
So "Visor" has 146 profit, and there are loads of other variations with Visor in it, but they do not add up to 146 profit.
So I presume each category is actually different and for example "Visor Windop" selections are not included in "Visor"... is that right?
In that case how would I go about selecting "Visor Windop" in the filters because I don't see that option, there are only the options for each peice of equipment on it's own (this is just a question so I can understant how it works)
Conversely if "Visor Windop" is included by selecting "Visor" in the filter settings, how can I select horses that ONLY have a "Visor" and nothing else (this is actually what I want to do)
Many thanks in advance as always
Andy