Horse Racing Strategy Clinic
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Here's one for you Adam.
I have selected BSP between 10-20 and stick in backs at a higher odds range e.g. 40, or 50 or whatever really, and it always seems to come back with profit.
Sounds way too good to be true so compared to the BSP file downloads I have, and wrote a small python script to run a similar strategy, and it always comes out with a loss no matter what the odds above BSP I select, so the complete opposite of what the BTC strategy is saying.
Any ideas on if I've set up the parameters wrong or am expecting it to behave differently than the simulation output is?
I would expect it to be simulating for e.g. if back price I select is 40, for a back at 40 to be put into the IP market, and only if price goes above that it would be "matched" as a selection, and then the P&L for each matched bet to be worked out. And any where price does not go above that and horse wins it would obviously not count as a bet.
Cheers
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@Andy-Donnelly It seems to be the other bit actually, the "never won at a course with specific characteristics" bit.
I'm looking into it, I don't think it's doing what I thought it should.
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@Adam I dont unfortunately, just more an idea I had on an angle where horses might be overrated by the markets. I’ll try and find one though.
Thanks for looking. Does it work to have a filter on horses having not won at a particular course charateristic? So basically remove the won last time out part.
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@Andy-Donnelly There is a way of doing this that should work, but when I set it up in the software, it never gives me any results, which seems odd.
Don't suppose you have any examples of horses which would have qualified for this strategy on any date do you? That way I can see why the software's not picking it up and figure out what's going on.
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@Adam is there a way for me to create a strategy on the below criteria using existing filters:
Lay horses that won their last race, but have never won on a track with the characteristics that there next race has.
So as an example, say horse x won their last race, which happened to be on an undulating course. Their next race is on a sharp course and they have never won on a sharp course before.
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There's nothing inherently wrong with the way you've set it up, but your main issue will probably be getting the exit bets matched in running.
You're betting at BSP, which means you won't be able to place your exit bet until the race has started and will have to deal with the in-play delay.
You also have quite a few very high odds bets which may also struggle to get their exits matched.
You could track it, and if you find an unacceptable percentage of your actual bets are not getting caught, you could try placing the bets just before the start of the race so you can place your exits at the same time, and maybe try restricting the odds range a bit.
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Good Morning
I'm trying to create a back to lay strategy around front running horses.
What needs to happen is the horse that I back at the start should be near the front, allowing the odds to drop so I can trade out for a small profit (would be done using bots) or exiting for a stop loss if the price goes the other way
I've put this very simple strategy together - but the results seem a bit too good to be true - what have I missed please?!
Thank you for your help
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@kevin-curry To filter on horses that have dropped in class or stayed the same since last time out, do this:
The operator is "greater than" because dropping in class means a higher class number. The multiplier is "0.99" so it will include races of the same class.
I'm not sure what the difference is between the first and second part of your question.
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Hi
Adam
i am trying to put a strategy together where the main part of it is looking at horses that have dropped in class or staying in the same class in their next race then getting the result of that to run the strategy
Also, where it gives the selections showing horses selections for the day that are going down in class or staying in the same class with the other filters I put in placeCould you advise me on the best way to set this up, please?
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@Danny-Beal thanks, I have betangel, but if it is possible on bfbm I have a hope that I can somehow do it with betangel, thanks.
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@Brigitta-Nagy
Hi.
BFBM
After about a month of fiddling with setting I think I now have this working.
Age filter, see attached. Not sure which strategy this is, so ignore the fact is shows horses up to 10yo
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@Danny-Beal hi Danny, I just checked your strategy and would like to ask if you do it with betangle or BF bot, if so how do you select horses under 8 ys in your software?
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@Brigitta-Nagy Yes, you need to remove the BSP favourite rule if you're betting 6 hours before the race.
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@Adam thank you
rules_export_1.jsonThis doesn't make sense, does it?
this one shows what if I backed the favourite at the start, but the odds is 6 hs earlier than start? -
- Set your bet side to "back"
- Set your desired entry price
- Set the betting window to "before race start" and enter a time range around the 4 hour mark
- Include "Favourite" in the Favourites section
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hi guys, and @Adam
how can i select a horse that was the favourite 4 hours before the race and check what happens if I bet on it as a normal bet? -
@Adam
Thanks Adam.
The day of the month synopsis make sense.
The furlongs- tested with and without the middle batch of distances
With 11-15 Furlongs included Archie 37
Without- 47So the removal seemingly makes this more robust.
I think I will try out the other points made and see if I can spot something else from another angle.
Many thanks.
